All this being said, I still think that after several years cranking out every kind of video you should be able to look at the scope of a project and make a reasonable comparison to what it might take in a cost-per-finished-minute calculation. This would be based on length of video, kind of footage, demands of graphics compositing.
I do it all the time and we are darn close. The only thing no one mentioned as a variable, and the most important one, is what client you are working for. Some love what we do and we can predict that what we do right out of the gate will be great. Others take us round and round until we interpret what they wanted to see all along but had a hard time describing.
Those clients we add in considerable pad.
So we can calculate, based on type of post project, amount/type of graphics and client we are working with, quite accurately, how much a given project will cost per finished minute.
And, just to hone this ability even further, we calculate cost per finished minute after every project to see how we did.
Numbers are everything.
Rich Rubasch
Tilt Media Inc.
Video Production, Post, Studio Sound Stage
Founder/President/Editor/Designer/Animator
https://www.tiltmedia.com