[Herb Sevush]

Apple is moving to AV Foundation. It may be possible that at some point . . . Avid and Adobe may also have to go through a major change if they need to support it.

Avid’s ONLY business is “pro” video – news, broadcast and film. What are the chances they will design an AV Foundation NLE that will alienate their entire user base? None.

That isn’t quite as true for Adobe, but I think the chances are very low there as well.

Your whole Apple-centric post misses the point, and here I’m going to quote something Simon Ubsdell wrote a few days ago –

Contrari-wise we look at Apple (now) and we see a business that only happens by chance to be traveling the same path as we are. Somehow we have chosen to ignore this for a number of years – suddenly the truth of it is inescapable. We have everything to lose, they have virtually nothing. Whether or not they are committed to carrying on along the same path as us, we have been made aware of how precarious the relationship is on our side. We have been very lucky so far, but now we realize that it was indeed luck all along.

(https://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/8894)

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions

[Herb Sevush]

I wouldn’t use Windows on a dare, but that is just my personal preference. The creative pros I know feel the same way

I guess I’m not creative enough for Apple then. I’m totally platform agnostic. My only prejudice is to deal with companies who value me as a customer.

You can buy a Dell or HP instead, everyone knows how much they care about broadcast posproduction.

They don’t care about broadcast, they care about business. No business would allow themselves to be abused the way Apple treats it’s customers. Everything in the PC world is backwards compatible, it’s one of the givens. It’s only a company with 5% of the computer market and no appreciable corporate presence that would tell it’s own customer’s to eat s**t and then expect them to come back in a year for seconds.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions

[Herb Sevush]

Let’s talk about these negligible costs and my emotional decision making.

But what risk is there in FCPX? $300? $400 if you spring for the companion apps?

That’s a load of crap and you know it. Automatic Duck alone is $500. The true cost of FCPX for Broadcasters, will be around $700 – $1000 once all the necessary third parties are accounted for. Again, not that big a deal – oh except maybe once your talking about 3 seats, now we’re at 2000 – 3000. Still not the cost of a decent RAID, but not peanuts either.

In January 2012 my business plan calls for me to upgrade 2 of my computers. FCPX was specifically designed NOT for Mac Pros – it was designed for laptops, Imacs, and I’m sure Ipads will be next. None of those computers can do the work I need done. Am I being irrational when I say I can’t see investing $8000 – $10000 in computers made by a company with Apple’s recent track record and direction, I don’t think so. (you can refer back to Helmut Kobler’s article here – I notice you had nothing to say about his comments.)

But most costly is my time. Retraining for a new workflow will be the biggest cost in migrating platforms. And FCPX is the least compatible system to FCP7 on the market.

I’ve spent more on sheets of paper for a tiny trade show this month.
Apparently you use a lot of paper.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions

[Herb Sevush]

Bill –

Most of the editors talking up PP are long time FCP contributors like Walter Biscardi. They are not shills.

Since Apple has officially s**tcanned FCP7 we are all faced with the dilemma of migrating in the near future. And as the Apple apologists have continuously pointed out, FCPX is a totally new system and therefore has no greater hold on anyone here then any other system.

It is only natural that PP gets discussed, along with Avid or Sony Vegas for that matter. PP probably gets mentioned more often because many editors already own the Adobe Creative Suite, it has a similar interface and it can read legacy FCP projects. In fact it is FCPX that is probably the LEAST compatible NLE in existence for a FCP7 user.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions

[Herb Sevush]

I totally agree Apple has left the Broadcast/Film market… because a few thousand niche users among millions of FCPX users is a distraction they don’t need to service themselves

We are totally in agreement here. The only question I have is why would anyone do business and invest money in a company that doesn’t value them? Yes, I could make a race car out of a Toyota Prius if enough third parties could modify it for me, but wouldn’t I be better off starting with a Porsche. And If the Broadcast/Film market doesn’t believe in FCPX, I don’t see AJA, Blackmagic and Matrox investing a lot of resources creating drivers. The youtubers don’t use Mac Pros.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions

[Herb Sevush]

Andrew –

You call it speculation, I think of it as drawing inferences. And one of the best articulations of the “Apple is changing direction” theory is right at the top of this forum –

A Final Cutter Tries Out Premiere Pro
by Helmut Kobler
https://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/8805

He lists the following to consider:

Apple took nearly 2.5 years to upgrade Final Cut Studio from version 2 to 3 (and v.3 was only a moderate upgrade at that). Until then, updates had come at a much more aggressive pace.

Apple cancelled the popular Shake, promising to replace it with a new tool that never came.

Apple got lazy with its Logic Pro app as well, letting development creep along with an upgrade about every two years.

Apple stopped updating the Pro page on its web site long ago. There hasn’t been a new item posted in almost two years: https://www.apple.com/pro/

Apple took more than a year to fix a glaring Final Cut 7 bug that made its Close Gap command unreliable. To break a core Timeline feature like Close Gap and not fix it for 14 months was offensive and inexcusable.

Apple cancelled its Xserve RAID then its Xserve hardware.

Apple started taking longer and longer to release Mac Pro workstations, and absolutely phoned in the latest upgrade last July. 511 days in the making, the newest Mac Pro was one of the most un-inspired hardware upgrades I’ve ever seen from Apple.

Apple pulled out of industry trade events like NAB.

Multiple rumors (and confirmation of rumors) of significant layoffs in the Pro Apps division.

Then you get to FCPX and you can add (and this not counting any missing features that might be re-installed)

Lack of backwards compatibility.

Removal of FCS3 sales and support without notice.

A non customizable single screen design obviously not created with Mac Pro’s in mind.

Apple’s admission that they will not implement any of the missing “pro” IO but instead will leave that to third parties.

I don’t think an inference that Apple is getting out of the Broadcast / Film business is a reach. I think you’d have to be delusional to think otherwise.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions

[Herb Sevush]

we have been made aware of how precarious the relationship is on our side

Amen to that.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions

[Herb Sevush]

“…and once those issues have passed FCP X will probably have little trouble establishing itself.”

I’m not so sure about that. This comes under the heading of “fool me once…”. I’m not sure the broadcast business will ever trust their resources to a company that is so obviously unconcerned with backwards compatibility.

Companies like Avid and Adobe or even Microsoft can have a poorly written upgrade, Vista anyone, but because they don’t totally discard their present users, business’s will stick with them. They can be trusted NOT to wreck havoc with their purchasing plans or workflow.

I know that I for one will never have full trust in Apple again and I will be very reluctant to invest my business resources with them, and I don’t think I’m alone. Now if future iterations of FCPX are way better in terms of productivity, then I’ll certainly consider it, but it will have to be WAY better, or else I’ll stay with a company that values my business. This comes under the heading of “You’ll never do business in this town again … unless we need you.”

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions

[Herb Sevush]

“It’ll be interesting to see if cooler heads prevail, and wait for the 3rd party developers to catch up before they jump ship. I’m betting the vast majority of gaps in the professional workflow will be filled within 12-18 months. The only question is whether Premier/Avid is superior enough to FCS3 to make that year matter.”

I think you’re underestimating the anger that’s out there.

I don’t know about anybody else but I’m not an Apple guy, I’m an editor. I owned 2 different PC NLE’s, both of them EOL’d, before I came to FCP about 7 years ago. I was looking for stability and assumed Apple was a mature company. I have no interest in Steve Jobs and could care less about Apple as a cultural icon. Since the introduction of FCPX last week I have heard constant refrains about how Apple always “eats it’s young”, they always start out with under developed programs and then add functionality, they are always secretive. I don’t give a s**t what they always are, their behavior this past week is intolerable.

If Microsoft tried something like this, tried bringing out a version of Excel that was incompatible with all previous versions, they would get annihilated. That’s because they deal with large businesses who wouldn’t put up with this sort of behavior. That’s why Windows isn’t cool, and why wintel machines are 90% of the PC market.

Apple has just EOL’d my workflow and software investments. My business plan calls for equipment upgrades next January. Unless FCPX blows me out of the water at that point, and I don’t think even the most ardent supporter thinks it will be fully on par with Avid and PPRO by then, I will be back in the land of wintel. And I don’t think I will be alone.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions

[Herb Sevush]

Steven –

“If the backend metadata and engine are the key, then why can’t that information be interacted with by the user in a myriad of ways?”

Amen.

I have been blathering on about this idea for days but you have articulated it perfectly.

Thank you.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions