[Herb Sevush]

[Chris Kenny] “FCP X is available for one-click App Store installation at a dramatically lower cost than competing applications. It’s easier for new editors to learn. “

So is Imovie. I didn’t see it eating up market share. If “one-click” installation is such a big deal, other vendors will follow suit. Costs are going down across all NLE applications. If cost is really the major factor than Lightworks will be the market champ, it’s free. And don’t forget that PPro with an educational discount is under $500.

As for ease of use, we shall see.

[Chris Kenny] “It’s built around file-based acquisition and focuses heavily on Internet deliverable formats “

So is PPro. If “one click” Youtube is a big hit, every NLE on the market will adapt it, it’s not like it’s difficult technology.

[Chris Kenny] ” Its UI is based around Internet-age taxonomy — relationships and tagging.”

Since I don’t what this means, but it’s got big words like taxonomy in it, I’ll just have to agree with you here.

[Chris Kenny] “It’s designed for a world of speedy laptops that can connect to Thunderbolt storage fast enough to handle even uncompressed HD.”

In what way is it optimized for laptops more than any other NLE? Do you mean PPro on a MBpro can’t use a TBolt raid?

[Chris Kenny] ” FCP X is from a different world than competing NLEs. But that world isn’t the consumer market. It’s the future. And it’s arriving fast.”

Oh please, spare me.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
—————————
nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf

[Herb Sevush]

“I don’t care what they say about me as long as they spell my name right.” attributed variously to P.T. Barnum, Mark Twain, Oscar Wilde, and Big Tim Sullivan.

I prefer the american to the roman.

As for the perfection of Apple’s intent.

After the rollout the released the “roadmap” for the next year, clearly as a reaction to the blowback they were getting. They, very quietly, un-EOL’d FCP7 thru over the phone sales, also, one can surmise, because of the feedback they were getting. No matter how you look at the recent “seat” numbers, they are loosing percentage in market share. Anecdotally they seem to be loosing some of their presence in various film schools around the country. They are now backtracking on their design concepts by promising to include a 2nd viewer window in upcoming releases. They claimed that it was impossible to import old FCP7 projects into FCPX, now third party developers are doing it.

I don’t think a perfect rollout would require a near constant backtracking by the “roller.” I think Apple took their #1 position in the NLE market and threw it in the toilet for many of the reasons you laid out. I don’t know if that larger market they think exists, exists. I do know that I am switching not just software but also hardware to the PC platform. I don’t think I’m alone.

the other thing to consider is what would have happened if they created FCP8. 64 bit, anything on the timeline, metadata intensive – but with tracks, 2 viewers, multicam, broadcast out, XML, OMF, EDL. They could have changed the data structure but kept it operationally similar. It could have been as “Apple” as they liked, but still respected basic editing conventions. It was quite possible to do, look at a lot of their software – Pages, Keynote, Safari – they didn’t reinvent the wheel there.

OK given a FCP8 rollout at the same price as X, what would have happened? Less noise, of course, but I think it would have sold better, their market share would have increased, their future just as bright.

We’ll never know about the alternative, time will tell about their choices.

A perfect rollout – only in the bizzaro world.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
—————————
nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf

[Herb Sevush]

Steve –

At the start of the second talking head you can hear someone off-camera cuing the interviewee by calling out “no muss, no fuss” which is then repeated by the talking head. That moment doesn’t inspire confidence.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
—————————
nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf

[Herb Sevush]

[Chris Kenny] “even if 80% of consumer computing happens on phones, tablets and maybe ARM desktops in five years, there will likely still be a viable market for high-powered traditional desktops and laptops. It’s not just pro video customers — it’s gaming enthusiasts, engineers, scientists, developers, etc. And there’s the whole server market, which also largely shares the same hardware platforms. It’s enough of a customer base to keep prices reasonable, I think.”

That would be nice, but first of all I’d say 95-5 instead of your 80-20. The computers on most people’s desks are a waste – most people need a web browser, email, word processor and for a much smaller group a spreadsheet. You don’t need a desktop for this any longer.

You can go into any corporate office and wipe out 95% of the desktops and replace them with Pads and tablets. All of the markets you named will be in the same boat as high end video. It would be nice if prices were not effected, by I’m guessing otherwise. The other issue is operating systems. As both Apple and Microsoft go full bore after the tablet market I expect these high end niche players to be left behind. Again, that might just be my negative outlook on things, but “hope for the best, expect the worst” works for me.

[Chris Kenny] “Secondly, I’m not sure appliance-like computing is inherently incompatible with what we do”

I need a keyboard, I need multiple large monitors, I need access to large fast storage. This is the antithesis of the cloud world of pads and tablets where mobility reins. I’m sure it will be possible to edit on tablets, but will it be optimal?

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
—————————
nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf

[Herb Sevush]

[Craig Seeman] “In this area I see Herb’s point.”

What’s this forum coming too? First I agreed with a post by Jeremy, now this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3ZOKDmorj0

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
—————————
nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf

[Herb Sevush]

[Jeremy Garchow] “I am not against learning new things, believe me. It’s just that the argument of “throw them all in the tool box” doesn’t make any sense to me, as there’s simply not enough time in the world to learn it all. “

On this as well as everything else you wrote in this thread I am in complete agreement.

Let’s not have this happen too often though, it might ruin my reputation.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
—————————
nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf

[Herb Sevush]

[Andrew Richards] “I can remember claims to that effect, though not necessarily coming from facility bosses like our esteemed Mr. Raudonis and Mr. Biscardi.”

Walter Biscardi dropped FCP within 6 months of the release. Bunim/Murray also switched within the year.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
—————————
nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf

[Herb Sevush]

[Jeremy Garchow] “I’m not calling you out, I am just wondering if people really are buying every system, OS and GPU available”

The idea isn’t to buy everything available. The idea is that you “can” buy anything available.

If I buy an Imac I’m stuck with a small selection of GPU’s. I can use Tbolt for connectivity but I don’t think it will be as fast or flexible as PCIe 3. I’m stuck with the built in Apple monitor.

The Imac encapsulates much of what I never liked about Apple in the first place – closed system, limited options. The rewards of Apple’s design philosophy are stability and efficiency. I guess I value flexibility over stability. Which in another thread many months ago I mentioned as reasons I didn’t like the design philosophy of FCPX. I’m nothing if not consistent.

If there is no new MacPro or equivalent come June I have a multitude of vendors, price points and system designs to choose from in the PC world. I’m comfortable with any of those choices, it comes down to matching hardware to software.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
—————————
nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf

[Herb Sevush]

[Chris Kenny] “If I were building a new facility today for in-house create editorial (i.e. not suites rented to outside editors, where you have just offer what they want), the ‘standard’ editing machine would absolutely be iMac + Thunderbolt RAID & video I/O + FCP X.”

And if I were advising someone I would recommend Windows boxes, where for the same or less price you have a much larger choice of GPUs, and with PCIe and USB3 you can customize exactly what you want at a great price; and for software any of PPro, Avid, Edius, Vegas or Lightworks that suits your needs. Greater variety, more customization and less subject to the whims of any single company, especially those who might decide they know more about your work than you do. I’d also suggest they brush up on Linux and have a Linux boot stick ready and waiting.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
—————————
nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf

[Herb Sevush]

[Chris Kenny] ” I didn’t believe Apple would abandon the high-end market. “

I feel abandoned. My MacPro tower recently died. For the moment I’m getting by with a loaner. I would like to stay with OSX, at least for the near future, but they don’t seem to be making anything for me to do that with, neither software nor hardware. When and if I see a solution that works for me I will stop feeling abandoned. Your 80% assurances don’t count.

[Chris Kenny] “Our market is too small to support the kind of R&D that the mass market can support”

I do understand mass market economies of scale. As I have written in other threads I believe that the era of high-end video riding on the coattails of mass market computers is coming to an end. My guess is that many of us will be working on Linux boxes in the next few years and paying a lot more to do that. I don’t believe Apple is interested in arresting that trend or serving that market.

[Chris Kenny] “I’m not amazed, just annoyed.”

OK

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
—————————
nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf