Okay, so I removed the Kona card, and swapped the Intensity Pro over to slot 2. Then I uninstalled and reinstalled, and this time it finished installing okay. I don’t yet know if it will continue to work okay if I set things back the way they were now that the driver is installed fully.
That didn’t solve the capture issue though, it turns out that the PS3 always has HDCP enabled, even for games. Luckily the debug kits have an option to disable HDCP, so once I did that the signal came through okay for capture.