I worked on a project very similar not too long ago. We did have a shot where we dollied back (I believe that it will work the same for your dolly move). I tracked the footage using position and scale tracking…surprisingly AE tracked it very well. I applied the tracker info to a null and parented my footage to the null. The movement was dead on. As far as replacing the footage use a mask to cut out the tv screen, place your replacement footage as a layer below the tv and scale accordingly. Then use some of the tips from the tutorials to make it look like a real tv ex (lens distortion, shadowing…) Good Luck. You could even add some random footage on top with the opacity very low to give the effect of the glass reflecting its environment.
Hope some of this helps.
Ben
Ben-Jamin Productions
Motion Graphics and Compositing