Andrew Kimery
Forum Replies Created
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[Bill Davis] “But it also indicates that the next smart bit of useful business intelligence for NLE manufacturers is to determine which classes of users are on the ascendence, and which classes of users are on the decline.”
You seem to see it as a migration from point A to point B where I think it’s more akin to an expansion from point A to point B. New territory is being exploded but the old territory remains populated and still thrives. I really haven’t noticed a drop off in desire for hollywood movies and TV shows over the last decade or so. Netflix stock just shot up in large part to the success of House of Cards and I’m sure Amazon, YouTube and Hulu are hoping their original content will give them a sizable boost as well. Some studies say that during primetime TV hours in the US 1/3 of *all* internet traffic is Netflix streaming. Holy smokes! If I was a traditional TV/movie distributor I’d be worried but as a content creator, dude, I’m lovin’ the fact that these streaming outlets are trying to produce their own premium content.
Large facilities are on the decline but they have been for over a decade so that’s nothing new. Going to a facility has gone from the only option to a option as gear has become more affordable. If I owned/managed a facility I’d be figuring out how to ride the changing tides but, again, as a content creator I just go where ever the next gig takes me. Big facility? Sure. Boutique offices in a converted house? Why not. Edit at home in my bathrobe? Done that too.
I’ve spent the majority of the last 7 years in the web space (or ‘digital’ as some label it) and while the will is there the revenue, by and large, certainly is not. Lots of growth potential because it’s still a nascent area but the jury is still out on how things will ultimately shake out. How many taking part in the current new wave of editing will be repeat customers and how many will be one and done? I dunno, maybe because I’ve been so close to it for so long the drastic changes don’t seem drastic too me since I’ve seen so many of the subtle changes that led the way.
*Analogy Alert* The Wii was a prime force in expanding the reach of video game consoles to casual gamers (or typically non-gamers) which led to gang buster sales out of the gate, calls that hardcore gaming was dead, and some ‘hey, we do casual gaming too!’ moves from Microsoft and Sony. Unfortunately casual gamers don’t buy very many games (as the term ‘casual’ might imply) which caused the Wii’s growth to screech to a halt and Nintendo went from 7th Heaven to all-hands-on-deck rather abruptly.
The fall of the Wii certainly wasn’t accompanied by the fall of casual gaming but it did signal some boundaries to casual gaming as well as show the value of a core audience of repeat customers. Nintendo’s new console, the WiiU, is aimed to regain the hardcore gaming audience that the Wii lost though it retains features to appeal to their ‘expanded market’ of casual gamers.
[Bill Davis] “If that assessment is correct, it’s smart to try to figure out what tools you can deploy personally, in a world where there might be fewer shops to around that can provide one with that career-long seat.”
What’s this career long seat you speak of? 😉 Staff gigs, especially career long staff gigs, seem rare as hen’s teeth in our industry.
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I understand the concern but I think things like local monopolies (for cable) and price tiers (for both) are the problem and not that you sign up for a service. Competition will breed innovation.
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[Lance Moody] “As soon as Adobe gets a large percentage of users on the Creative Cloud, I wonder where the incentive will be for them to innovate will lie?”
If they don’t innovate they’ll lose customers. People that invested 10’s, if not 100’s of thousands of dollars in Avid hardware and software moved to FCP when they felt FCP was the better deal so I don’t see why people paying $30-$50 a month for Creative Cloud would balk at jumping ship. Switching between Mac and Windows can be expensive too but people still do it.
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[Walter Soyka] “I don’t think you can pay for a year of Creative Cloud upfront. You can commit to paying monthly for a year in exchange for the lower rate, but I don’t think you can pre-pay the year.”
Walter is correct. You can commit to an annual plan for a reduced rate but you still pay monthly.
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[Richard Herd] “What about documentarians in the boondocks making documentaries like “Restrepo” in bumblenowhere Afghanistan who cannot get to the net?”
When this Q was asked on Adobe’s forums a rep from Adobe said if you know you’ll be w/o internt access for an extended period of time you can call Adobe support before hand and they’ll make adjustments on a case by case basis.
The other option is just to buy a perpetual license and not use Creative Cloud.
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Why do you think this type of thing will likely keep happening? I’ve been using Creative Cloud since the middle of last year or so and I haven’t run into a problem where apps wouldn’t launch.
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[TImothy Auld] “That, I think, is stealing.”
I’m just saying that in the worst case scenario of all our Creative Cloud apps failing to launch because the ‘phone home’ servers have been turned off there will be workarounds so users can open their projects and migrate out what they need.
I really doubt that we’ll get to a point where overnight Adobe, and all of it’s IP, ceases to exist thus leaving everyone stunned like Baltimore when the Colts moved to Indy.
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If worse comes to worse and Adobe goes belly up, or something significantly dire happens, then just download a hack for the software. Online distribution will stop the people that buy one copy and install it on multiple machines but it won’t stop the people that download hacks/hacked versions from P2P. Heck, within 2 days of FCPX being released there were hacked copies floating around P2P networks that you just downloaded and ran like normal.
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[Chris Kenny] “Price and access are pretty much what won the last round on the NLE wars for Apple.”
Price and access was a big part in FCP Legend getting in the door but back then the difference between it and Avid MC were 10’s of thousands of dollars and Avid-branded hardware. Today the difference is significantly less. Other NLE’s like Vegas, Premiere (pre-Pro) and those from Pinnacle were also as cheap if not cheaper than FCP so FCP’s attraction was more than just price.
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[Chris Kenny] “One also has to think about how this is going to evolve over time. Today’s aspiring directors, who are taking advantage of dirt cheap digital workflows to go out and start shooting their own no-budget projects… odds are they’re editing their own stuff. Who else is going to do it?”
To take it a step further, in general video is becoming a form of common literacy all of its own. In the past just knowing how to shoot or edit and charging for your services was a viable business model but that’s not true any more than just knowing how to read and write lands you a job writing copy or authoring a book.
I think we’ll go through a wave of excitement as people go “Hey, I can finally do this myself. This is awesome!” and then a wave a realization that it’s hard work, they aren’t very good at it, and/or they don’t have the time nor desire to do everything themselves. It’s already common for editors to produce as well (I’ve done a lot of ‘predator’ work the past 7-8yrs) so I think it’s only natural that tech will get to a point where producers can edit too. Of course there will always be projects that need both producers and editors to wear separate hats as there is simply too much going on for one person to effectively do both jobs.