[Craig RussillRoy] “. OR the true story will be AutoDesk will support Blackmagic and of the shelve Graphics cards”
Blackmagic support is unlikely, especially given Autodesk’s established working relationship with AJA Video Systems. OTS graphics are also unlikely right away, at least for ATI cards. Autodesk has a strong relationship with nVidia, and I doubt that will change any time soon.
[Craig RussillRoy] “OR Apple release a SMOKE killer and kills off FCP for this newly written App for 64bit”
Apple isn’t going to release a “Smoke killer,” it simply won’t happen. Apple and Autodesk Media & Entertainment (formerly Discreet) are two completely different types of companies with completely different levels of experience focused on two completely different markets. Smoke is an extremely mature and comprehensive product (almost a decade old) and is coming from the top down. FCP was a Macromedia app bought and built upon by Apple and is coming from the bottom up. Apple’s focus has not traditionally been high end, it’s been prosumer to midrange pro. I don’t foresee Apple developing anything on its own form scratch that is targeted at a high end post market. There’s just not the right return on investment needed for them to do so.
Apple has an opportunity to make the next release of FCP/FCS something revolutionary rather than evolutionary, but I don’t think that will happen. Apple doesn’t want to alienate its huge installed FCP user base by making any drastic changes. It’s more likely that FCP/FCS will follow an evolutionary development path, building steadily on the existing applications and tools without making any disruptive changes to workflow.
I’m not sure why you state that Smoke can’t edit well… While Smoke isn’t often used to cut long form projects, the tools are quite capable. Smoke is even more similar to FCP/Premiere/Avid now that the source/record two-up view has been added. Just because Smoke’s UI paradigm is different from that of FCP/Premiere/Avid doesn’t make it any less capable of an editor – it just has a steeper learning curve for those used to a different kind of interface.
I agree with you that there will probably be future Mac ports from Autodesk. I think it’s highly likely that Lustre will eventually be released on the Mac as well, which would be a match made in heaven – Smoke and Lustre on the same system, running alongside FCP. Now that will truly be a force to be reckoned with.