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Why Thunderbolt drives are taking so long to come to market – Larry Jordan explains
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[Bill Davis] “Why mix a metaphor when you can just as easily whip them into a nice soufflé!”
Fair enough!
[Bill Davis] “And as as more and more people discovered the joys of driving, they kept some of the “pro drivers” around for caché – but car companies became legendary by building something that people could actually BUY and enjoy. Lesson there, I suspect.”
We are the pro drivers.
You are extolling the virtues of an everyday automobile in a room full of racers, cabbies, limo drivers, and truckers. It’s not that we don’t get that hybrids are new, or that we don’t understand that more non-pros are driving, too — it’s just that we can’t use these cars to win a race, get a passenger from here to the airport, or haul tons of cargo across the country.
Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog – What I’m thinking when my workstation’s thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events -
Not to be morbid here, but after Steve died I felt like the whole year made sense. He had to know, or have a good idea, that time was short and what may have been a 18-24mo plan to get a number of pieces in place became a 10 mo plan. None of it was really ready, but it got put in place nonetheless. Lion has some great ideas that just don’t seem to be fully conceptualized. The iPhone has beta software in Siri. FCP X, well, is FCP X. It was obviously not ready to be the replacement for FCP 7. And the whole thunderbolt thing is just odd as well to release something with nothing to connect to for a long time. I can see it now… “sir the Pros are complaining that FCP X is missing some very important features.” Steve: “Screw that get that damn Siri thing working right!” And apparently they did. As a stockholder I’ve been very happy with the way Apple has prioritized it’s business. As a FCP user, not so much.
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[Walter Soyka] “– it’s just that we can’t use these cars to win a race, get a passenger from here to the airport, or haul tons of cargo across the country.
“And therein the issue. Too many here are stuck defending the industry’s “traditions” and not getting that this top down view is what’s under such violent attack.
Look, sure those cargo trucks are still rolling out there – but the ones that hauled the boxes of Final Cut Pro to Apple Stores 4 years ago have to sign new contracts and replace that business because those boxes aren’t going to be shipped again. Ever.
And the cabs at the airport? How many airport trips have you made this year compared to years past? I’d hate to be forced to graph that for my travel because it’s probably a depressing trend. I know that up to last year, I was Avis Preferred, but this past year didn’t come close to racking up that status. That saved myself and my clients a lot of money, but I do miss the perk.
In times of widespread business expansion – opening slots at the top of the professional pyramid expand with the general economy. But when an industry (not to mention an overall economy) is contracting, with fewer and fewer seats available at the top of the pyramid, focusing exclusively on “exceptional skills” might not a sensible strategy for success. It may be smarter to look around and see if different skills might be more effective in distilling market share and profits from the new game.
I actually hate saying that – because I’ve spent the same long decades learning the video production trade just as others here have – but I have to be realistic. In a world where there are 50 players competing for each decent sized job – then simple math tells us that 49 of the contenders won’t get the gig.
So the smart player has to shift the game.
And I think that FCP-X and Motion 5 are tools that will let some experienced folks do that. It’s taking the skills developed over 20 years, and using them to utilize new tools to create content better than the new kids but with the same reduced economic footprint.
Heck, Walter, I suspect that the desire to be able to do precisely that is why you keep coming back here. You’re smart enough to understand that unless you keep an eye on the new stuff, you risk missing a chance to get ahead of an emerging curve.
I think that curve is real. And its built around the ongoing “serchification” of content delivery.
And am seeing more and more how the underpinnings of X might enable some to mount a stronger play in that future – as long as we understand the tool in the context of how the game may be changing.
If we ever again enter a period of expansion and growth, having the new skills to go along with the traditional ones — perhaps having a firm grasp on both how to light a video shoot – AND rig a motion graphics scene with equally facility — (and set up a smart keyword system for each!) might be the key to keeping in play while one waits for the budgets to come back.
Time will tell.
“Before speaking out ask yourself whether your words are true, whether they are respectful and whether they are needed in our civil discussions.”-Justice O’Connor
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[David Roth Weiss] “It’s no wonder this country is in a deep recession; when a corporation with more money in its coffers than the U.S. treasury won’t hire the help they need to get the job done, we’re all in big trouble.”
I hear what you’re saying, and I don’t know for sure, but throwing more people at software development might not help the problem. At some point, I’m sure there’s a point of diminishing returns.
You can hire more PAs to help move the same amount of gear, but it doesn’t mean when the camera starts rolling it’s going to go any faster than real time.
More people does not equal Doc Brown’s Delorean, trying to keep the failed car analogies going.
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Bill, your post does a lot to explain why Avid is in such bad financial situation and why, despite the love many here feel for MC6, it’s not going to even come close to saving the company . . . a hardware company that has a shrinking market to sell its hardware to.
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[Bill Davis] “And therein the issue. Too many here are stuck defending the industry’s “traditions” and not getting that this top down view is what’s under such violent attack.”
I think we’re just doing our jobs and looking out for our client’s interests. What specific industry traditions do you think we should toss aside? What will the benefits be for doing so?
[Bill Davis] “Look, sure those cargo trucks are still rolling out there – but the ones that hauled the boxes of Final Cut Pro to Apple Stores 4 years ago have to sign new contracts and replace that business because those boxes aren’t going to be shipped again. Ever.”
The bell is hardly tolling for the shipping industry because FCPX is available electronically. Fedex processed 17 million shipments today, their highest volume ever [link].
[Bill Davis] “And the cabs at the airport? How many airport trips have you made this year compared to years past?”
Travel was the same, for me. One or two trips a month. I’d say business travel as a whole has been consistently moving up since 2008/2009. Haven’t you seen an uptick in convention attendance in Scottsdale? Sky Harbor Airport traffic is up 5.7% [link] YoY, YTD (Jan-Jul) in 2011.
[Bill Davis] “But when an industry (not to mention an overall economy) is contracting…”
Is the industry contracting, though? Increasing amounts of content are being produced for increasing numbers of screens. The demand for content has never been higher. Someone is doing this work.
[Bill Davis] “So the smart player has to shift the game. And I think that FCP-X and Motion 5 are tools that will let some experienced folks do that. It’s taking the skills developed over 20 years, and using them to utilize new tools to create content better than the new kids but with the same reduced economic footprint.”
I was able to enter this business on my own because of the low cost of entry 10 years ago. It’s been low enough to be inconsequential for years now. The $598 difference between FCS3 and FCPX, Motion 5, and Compressor does not represent nearly the economic shift in the game that Avid did in the 1990s or FCP Classic did in the early 2000s.
“We” don’t have the same economic footprint as “the new kids” unless they are also carrying office space, paying a mortgage, raising a child, and providing health insurance for a family. Cost savings on FCPX is a rounding error compared the other costs “we” have that “they” don’t.
Personally, I think you’re shifting the game the wrong way — dangerously — if you think you can beat low-cost competitors at their own game. You keep telling us how much FCPX lets beginners accomplish, and how fast these beginners are improving. In today’s “good enough” market, how long will your decades of experience provide you a compelling enough advantage to justify the higher rate you must charge to meet your higher expenses?
If you’re doing the same work this year you were doing last year, you’ve fallen behind. The industry is not standing still, and we can’t afford to, either.
Adopting FCPX doesn’t count as moving forward, though. FCPX offers some clever and interesting ideas about how an edit should be performed, but it isn’t actually transforming editorial, delivery, or consumption. In fact, FCPX is designed specifically to support the basic editorial model (A-roll driving the story, B-roll filling gaps and embellishing) we’ve been using for decades.
Instead, I think there’s a great benefit to moving up-market instead of down-market or staying still. I’d rather take on the harder jobs that new entrants can’t handle because they don’t have the skills or technical know-how, and I’d rather serve the clients that new entrants can’t serve because they lack the experience and project management skills. Isn’t that where the upside is?
Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog – What I’m thinking when my workstation’s thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events -
[Walter Soyka] “Adopting FCPX doesn’t count as moving forward, though. FCPX offers some clever and interesting ideas about how an edit should be performed, but it isn’t actually transforming editorial, delivery, or consumption. In fact, FCPX is designed specifically to support the basic editorial model (A-roll driving the story, B-roll filling gaps and embellishing) we’ve been using for decades.
Instead, I think there’s a great benefit to moving up-market instead of down-market or staying still. I’d rather take on the harder jobs that new entrants can’t handle because they don’t have the skills or technical know-how, and I’d rather serve the clients that new entrants can’t serve because they lack the experience and project management skills. Isn’t that where the upside is?”
Exactly which is why I haven’t even touched X yet. What Apple has done is reduce a standout product into another mediocre product in a field filled with mediocre products. I mean pick any flavor you like, it doesn’t matter, they all do the same thing
The analogy I have used before instead of cars or sports is photography. At one point photography was a very hard thing to do with only a small number of guys who could do a good job at it or do it at all. Then throughout the 20th century, it became easier and easier and access opened up to people around the world. But the consumer products don’t necessarily have that much of an impact on the pro ones. Sure more and more people can now take pictures but it’s still a small number of people that take the time and spend the money to do print quality work. And every year there are new magazines, books and web-sites that display the work of people who clearly know what they are doing and their work stands out. Good pictures are emotionally compelling and there will always be a demand for them and there will always be people who can do it better than others regardless of the technology they use.
IMO X does nothing to “democratize” editing or anything like that. Simple products already existed and X isn’t even a simple product necessarily. Probably takes exactly as long to learn as anything else out there and probably more than some. To me X is just another product out there but one released in Apple’s “bull in a china shop” way and that doesn’t “revolutionize” anything because the “revolution” already happened.
I think Apple blew it. They could have maintained a pro line like many other large corporations do and introduced a pro-sumer line. Canon, Nikon, Sony, Panasonic come to mind as companies who provide great products across the entire spectrum. Canon for example is well aware that all of those big beige lenses you see at sporting events help sell the cheaper cameras. They probably don’t even make much profit on their pro line but they maintain a large presence in the pro community which translates into $$$ on the consumer side.
But in any case as professionals, our livelihoods rely on doing what’s difficult. If anybody can do it then why pay us? So if editing becomes a piece of cake which it pretty much already is, we’d better focus on providing a product that not just anybody can do and that stands out or we’re toast. I see no reason to believe that X would in any way make my work more compelling or appealing or even easier. Technology is secondary to skill.
Robert Brown
Editor/VFX/Colorist – FCP, Smoke, Quantel Pablo, After Effects, 3DS MAX, Premiere Prohttps://vimeo.com/user3987510/videos
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[Bret Williams] “Not to be morbid here, but after Steve died I felt like the whole year made sense. He had to know, or have a good idea, that time was short and what may have been a 18-24mo plan to get a number of pieces in place became a 10 mo plan. None of it was really ready, but it got put in place nonetheless.”
Hi
I think that totally sums it up – the ultimate deadline… 🙁 RIP
Only rather than ‘the whole year’ I would put it since the start of Steve’s medical absence in January 2009, when Tim Cook effectively took over running Apple (adding $1000 to the retail price of the low end Mac Pro for starters).
When he came back later in 2009 Steve’s intuitive self knew the writing was on the wall for him, so he got on with inventing the future – mid to long-term as much as the here and now.Once Steve saw to it that the old FCP editing industry experienced ‘support’ team had been ‘let go’ he moved on.
So what we’ve been seeing is the ongoing Apple in action. FWIW. -
[Jeremy Garchow] “I hear what you’re saying, and I don’t know for sure, but throwing more people at software development might not help the problem. At some point, I’m sure there’s a point of diminishing returns.”
I think the classic and relevant quote is “If it takes one woman nine months to have a baby – how long will it take if you triple the number of women working on it?”
(couldn’t resist.)
“Before speaking out ask yourself whether your words are true, whether they are respectful and whether they are needed in our civil discussions.”-Justice O’Connor
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Just saw on the Twitter that someone got a shipping confirmation of a Sonnet Thunderbolt to ExpressCard adapter.
Not much, but it’s something.
Jeremy
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