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OT: Fusion vs After Effects
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[Scott Witthaus] “[andy patterson] “I hope competition will make Adobe lower the price to $14.95 a month.”
Why would you think this would happen? Why would Adobe want that revenue loss?”
Did I say Adobe wants revenue loss? You have heard about competition haven’t you? If DR and Fusion start to increase the user base by 15% each month and the PP and AE user base decreases by 12% each month Adobe will start to loose it’s user base to competing products from the competition. They will indeed start to loose revenue. I am not saying that will happen but that is how competition works. Will BMD offer a photo/graphic design program that integrates well with DR for $49.99? Who knows? Adobe can afford to loose it’s audio and video user base and still make money of the web design and graphic design products but who knows what the competition will offer in another two years from now?
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[andy patterson] “I hope competition will make Adobe lower the price to $14.95 a month.”
I think $14.95 is… overly optimistic. I could see Adobe maybe doing something like bundling the apps like they did in the CS days and charging $29.99/mo for a bundle while keeping $49.99/mo for people who want the whole enchilada.
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[Andrew Kimery] “[andy patterson] “I hope competition will make Adobe lower the price to $14.95 a month.”
I think $14.95 is… overly optimistic. I could see Adobe maybe doing something like bundling the apps like they did in the CS days and charging $29.99/mo for a bundle while keeping $49.99/mo for people who want the whole enchilada.”
I agree that $14.95 might be to low but I think BMD might create some competition. Even $29.99 for the CC would be a much better price. Will BMD release a photo/graphic design program at NAB 2018? Who knows?
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[andy patterson] “Did I say Adobe wants revenue loss?”
In essence, you did. Maybe not “want” but your idea will do the same. No company “wants” a revenue decrease unless it is offset by a greater expense decrease. By saying cut your prices by 50% +, you certainly are talking about a revenue loss. No way around it unless you see a vast increase in sales volume at the lower cost (or slash expenses, a la Avid).
[andy patterson] “If DR and Fusion start to increase the user base by 15% each month and the PP and AE user base decreases by 12% each month”
This is a bit of “the sky is falling”. Resolve has a long way to go to be accepted as an editing platform and they have to overcome entrenched user-bases from Apple, Avid and Adobe. Plus Adobe is playing at the enterprise level and that sector will simply not turn on a dime to change products. Adobe has time to craft a counter-strategy.
What I would find interesting is if Adobe takes a “Sling TV Model” where they can offer the 5 core products that most folks use (PS, AE, Pr, IL and Aud for example) for let’s say $25 a month and then allow you to buy other CC products a la carte. Could they sustain their current revenue?
[andy patterson] “You have heard about competition haven’t you? “
uh, yeah. But thanks for reminding me.
Scott Witthaus
Owner, 1708 Inc./Editorial
Managing Partner, Low Country Creative LLC
Professor, VCU Brandcenter -
[Scott Witthaus] “[andy patterson] “Did I say Adobe wants revenue loss?”
In essence, you did. Maybe not “want” but your idea will do the same. No company “wants” a revenue decrease unless it is offset by a greater expense decrease. By saying cut your prices by 50% +, you certainly are talking about a revenue loss. No way around it unless you see a vast increase in sales volume at the lower cost (or slash expenses, a la Avid).”
It is called competition.
[Scott Witthaus] “[andy patterson] “If DR and Fusion start to increase the user base by 15% each month and the PP and AE user base decreases by 12% each month”
This is a bit of “the sky is falling”. Resolve has a long way to go to be accepted as an editing platform and they have to overcome entrenched user-bases from Apple, Avid and Adobe. Plus Adobe is playing at the enterprise level and that sector will simply not turn on a dime to change products. Adobe has time to craft a counter-strategy.”
Nothing will happen overnight nor did I say it will. I have implied where will each company be in another two years? Who knows?
[Scott Witthaus] “What I would find interesting is if Adobe takes a “Sling TV Model” where they can offer the 5 core products that most folks use (PS, AE, Pr, IL and Aud for example) for let’s say $25 a month and then allow you to buy other CC products a la carte. Could they sustain their current revenue?”
That is kind of my point. Adobe may have to rethink things because of the competition. Will BMD introduce a photo/graphic design program at NAB 2018? Who knows? Will BMD offer a better solution than Adobe for 85% of the editors in another two years? Who knows?
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[Simon Ubsdell] “doing an introduction to Fusion Connect tutorial some time soon”
I will definitely watch it!
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[David Mathis] “then you have to wait for Fusion to open and then you have to render again for everything to update back in Resolve. I don’t think that was ever an issue with a Premiere Pro and After Effects workflow though Dynamic Link has it its own set of issues”
I love Dynamic Link. Adobe has built great tools. I just think there is a basic dilemma in rendering a “video” v. rendering a “graphic.” I’m not sure that’s ever going away.
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[Simon Ubsdell] “I don’t know what level of proficiency you already have”
This is Day 1 in Fusion!!
Thank you!
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[andy patterson] “that is how competition works. “
The Coercive Laws of Competition.
Blackmagic has also a lot of hardware products. So for Adobe to be coerced into Blackmagic’s model, they’d need to sell some hardware stuff. I would like to buy an Adobe OS, actually, running on Adobe hardware.
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[Richard Herd] “I would like to buy an Adobe OS, actually, running on Adobe hardware.”
Even if such a machine could only run Adobe software? ☺
Shawn
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