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OT: Are We Finally Seeing the End of Avid?
Wow! Avid shares plunged nearly 30% Tuesday. Third quarter in a row they didn’t meet Wall Street expectations. They are also transitioning to subscription base. But is it too little, too late? Thoughts?
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35 Replies
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I’d guess the studios would ultimately jump in and save them a la Kodak if it really cut down to the bone. Too much invested in the infrastructure.
Noah
FCPWORKS – FCPX Workflow
Call Box Training -
Personally, I already dared predict their demise within about two years tops a couple of years back and was already saying that what they were doing then (e.g. slashing prices, but not nearly enough) was already way too little, way too late. Of course at that point I didn’t realize that they still had a formidable cash-pile up their sleeve, which is arguably the only thing that has in fact kept them alive this long. Once that is used up (if it isn’t already), that’s pretty much it IMHO. But yeah, I agree I could see them being passed around for a while once they get there, a lá Media 100? I teach at various schools on the side, and barely any of the students or graduates even know the name, nor is it even taught (very seriously) at any of them. First major and deadly sign of disappearing into insignificance if you ask me.
We’ll see.
– RK
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Avid has been losing market share for years now, but they are firmly entrenched still in film and broadcast (although a family member of mine who works NFL games for CBS as well as other high profile sporting events told me that the CBS trucks now have Avid, Premiere and, you guessed it, FCPX).
What’s mind-boggling to me is the delusion that management team has about Avid’s position in the marketplace. Horrible Q2 results but raise the full year outlook? You have to realise that Louie Hernandez is more a turnaround and sell guy versus a leader in the industry. IMHO, I don’t think he has any interest in Avid regaining it’s lofty position. It’s more “let’s crank out the good news as much as we can” and hope no one notices. Kind of sad to watch, actually. I used to do a ton of Media Composer work and now I can’t find one to rent in our region.
Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter -
[Scott Witthaus] “but they are firmly entrenched still in film and broadcast”
Maybe in some cities, but certainly not all. And at the same time, you’re talking barely a single digit percentage of the entire industry. At the same time, those will be editing facilities that set up 5 if not 10 or more years ago. I think it’s pretty safe to say, that any new(er) facilities have not been and are not going Avid. Certainly not from my experience. Simply because it makes very little to no technical let alone economical sense to them from what I gather. And I get it.
And yes, here, too, the otherwise notoriously slow and “SO last year” public (government, a lá BBC) broadcasters, who, for some bizarre reason are still often referenced as the be-all and end-all of “broadcast trends” here as well, are now (amazingly!) moving more and more to anything BUT Avid, which until just a few years ago was considered a completely ludicrous notion. Go figger.
Oh and btw, the few Avid seats left at any of the schools I work at haven’t been updated past v5 or v6 at best, because of the apparently notorious incompatibilities each new, even incremental version brings with it and, with that, constant maintenance and fiddling that accompany any such attempt. That for me is mind-boggling.
– RK
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Agreed.
My knowledge is completely anecdotal, but it seems like Avid has a history of getting bad CEOs. They don’t seem to know exactly what Avid is. They try to make it fit into the same lot as other tech companies, whose share prices are constantly inflated by the idea of future profits. The idea of using computers to aid in media production is now old hat. Avid has been doing this for 20 years already. It’s time to take Avid at face value: a company that makes predictable, slow-evolving tools in an established market. Shares will rise slowly as those tools are constantly refined.
Avid has more flops than successes when it comes to acquiring other software/companies. And yet.. here they go again buying Orad Hi-Tec for 60M despite the fact that it will probably do nothing for their bottom line.
Let’s make some guesses/predictions: current CEO leaves in fourth quarter of 2016 after Avid (or some portion of it) is sold. The purchase of Orad Hi-Tec is nothing more than a method of buying into that “we’re a tech company with future potential!” idea, designed to lure some 3rd-party buyer who wants their portfolio to be vaguely part of tech-sector.
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“Oh and btw, the few Avid seats left at any of the schools I work at haven’t been updated past v5 or v6 at best, because of the apparently notorious incompatibilities each new, even incremental version brings with it and, with that, constant maintenance and fiddling that accompany any such attempt. That for me is mind-boggling.”
You are misinformed. Care to describe these incompatibilities? Backwards compatibilities would be limited by feature changes, but forward compatibilities are pretty solid. I open old projects in current software frequently and it looks pretty compatible to me. Even render files relink! Imagine that!
As far as schools, what you say is generally correct EXCEPT schools that teach film, particularly here in the US. My experience is that even though the school might not teach Avid, the students who really do have a desire to work post in film and TV seem to still want to seek out MC training so they are marketable.
As far as general facilities, there are a few cases I know of in the US that went Premiere Pro to create TV shows and have since shift to Avid because of hassles they encountered in a multiuser environment.
Oliver
Oliver
Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com -
God I hope they dont take Pro Tools down with them.
And no I dont care for Black Magic buying that either 😛
Avid in my parts is still non-existent to the masses.
Installed in a 2 of the 3 broadcast stations here as well as a few studios.
Everyone has a copy of CC and FCPX here.
I tried to bring it into my College (part-time) but Im stuck with it at work.
Even if they go under my company will still use it for a few more years yet.
Were even pitching in and getting the DNxIO.
Pesonally Im a FCPX all the way and loving it 🙂 -
[Oliver Peters] ” there are a few cases I know of in the US that went Premiere Pro to create TV shows and have since shift to Avid because of hassles they encountered in a multiuser environment.”
But, there are many many more facilities that shifted to Premier and now X that have never looked back at Avid.
Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter -
[Oliver Peters] “You are misinformed.”
No, I’m merely restating what the guys that maintain the systems (and have been for many years) tell me. Which is in fact not very different from what I’ve heard from almost every Avid user I know over the last few years for that matter. The whole “hasn’t been ‘certified‘ for x, y or z yet” or just the general “If it ain’t broke…” attitude. The majority of said issues have little to do with Avid being incompatible with itself, as you describe. If only.
I also know that the Avids have been the only edit suites that have ever been down for any extended period of time over the years. Mind you, a roughly 4:12 ratio between Avid & the rest. On the Mac the Avids are always the ones you seem to need to tiptoe around. To the point where they are on separate machines all by themselves by now, because when you have to update OS X to be able to run every other NLE or maybe some utility, suddenly the Media Composer gets all flakey. That on the other hand I witnessed first hand a few times.
Then there’s still the matter of having to pay more for just a simple incremental update than for an entire seat or over a years worth of the other NLEs, even if that now has changed. But any remaining trust has been canceled out by frustration over so many years, to the point that that step isn’t even one being considered anymore. And sure… YMMV.
[Oliver Peters] “EXCEPT schools that teach film”
That may well be. In the U.S. But then we’re talking about an even smaller fragment of the industry. And we are talking about Avids survival here, so I don’t see how that qualifies as an argument for Avid or its use. Rather I think it solidifies the problem that much more. Especially since no one actually shoots FILM anymore anyway, in which case I see only very very few and very specific (i.e. not needed by the vast majority) tasks that Avid can actually cater to better than anyone else. Meaning to the point that jumping on Avid makes for an actual overall advantage.
– RK
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[Scott Witthaus] “But, there are many many more facilities that shifted to Premier and now X that have never looked back at Avid.”
I’d definitely second that.
– RK
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Deutsch? Hier gibt es ein umfassendes FCP X Training für dich!
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