Just because Apple isn’t having a booth at NAB doesn’t mean they won’t have any major news around that time.
They’ve already proven the opposite is true: That just because they DO have a booth at NAB doesn’t mean they actually have anything major to announce. Two years ago, they announced… wait for it… the 17″ Intel MacBook Pro. Oh, and an Intel-native port of Shake. Big whoop. They didn’t need a gigantic booth at NAB to announce that.
That was it. Nothing else. Last year, of course, was FCS 2, which was a big deal. Three years ago was FCS 1, which was also a big deal. So, Apple has proven that NAB essentially guarantees exactly nothing in regard to what they release. Sure, it’s nice to have a major new release coincide with a major event like NAB, but it isn’t necessary.
Also, consider that Apple is a big enough player to warrant their very own PR extravaganza for just about anything they wish. They don’t need NAB as a vehicle for their product publicity; Apple has enough industry pull and cash to throw their own big launch party for any product at any time and get all the press coverage they want, especially from the video/post industry rags.
I have no inside knowledge of anything, but to me Final Cut feels old compared to the rest of the suite. I personally believe there are some pretty interesting signs pointing to rewrite or at least a significant upgrade to Final Cut in the near future – maybe this year, maybe next.
First of all, it is the only app in the suite that still uses an essentially OS 9 interface. Think about it: FCP looked exactly the same on OS 9 as it did in OS X. It has some deep carbon roots that I suspect are holding it back from really growing (64 bit native) and taking advantage of core OS X technologies (look at Motion’s UI).
If you look at FCP 6, there are some things in there that to me indicate some big things ahead. One example is the ability to monitor background tasks. This is how you see the progress of the smoothcam filter, which, if you all remember, is really shake technology that found its way into FCP. But not really. That little monitor background tasks window doesn’t look like it belongs in FCP – it looks like the rest of the FCS suite (save for Color, which is a different story). Also, the Log & Transfer window has the standard “Pro App” look the rest of the suite does and feels more like a mini-app that lives within FCP rather than just a window into an internal FCP process. The fact that you can continue work in FCP while an import is happening in L&T turns over a couple tea leaves for me. 🙂
I would really like to see Apple take all of that wonderful shake technology they are letting rot and build it better into FCP. They’ve built a good deal of it into Compressor, which is the ONLY app in their suite able to fully leverage multi-core processing. Why shouldn’t FCP be able to tap that same power when rendering? I feel the answer to this is because FCP’s code base is old (tried and true, yes, but old) and it is simply unable to take advantage of useful things like network rendering, 64 bitness, advanced GUI, etc. without a significant update to the code.
The big question – aside from “if” – is “when?” I suspect later rather than sooner but I am always willing to be surprised. 🙂
-Matt