Since we’re speculating…
Short term there’s going to be a hit for Apple. I think there are lots of places that are going to jump back to Avid, and some to Premiere. As the feature set matures, NEW editors will use FCPX. They will learn it, and think the track based system with no real metadata we use is archaic and unintuitive. Apple will eventually release a v2 that includes edit to tape, OMF export, and many things we need. People will be amazed. V3 will include proper OMF volume levels, better color correction, and a non-magnetic mode, and everyone will be amazed yet again.
Avid will enjoy a small surge for now, but it will be short lived. The new editors will demand FCPX because they can’t even begin to understand how to edit destructively. The older editors will remind them constantly how non-pro the youngsters are, and bemoan the downfall of their industry.
in 5 years FCPX will be the dominant editing system again. In fact, that may happen in 1 year, except for very very rigid editing ecosystems like film, with it’s older editors being the last of the breed that edit the old way.
Eventually the tape issue will be moot, because in 2013 the FCC will approve the merger of ATT, Comcast, Time Warner, and Verizon Fios, resulting in a single company with every single former congressional representative receiving under the table kickbacks, being place in VP positions, or on it’s board. This company will then charge $10,000 per month for internet access of 2 Mb/s download and .39 Mb/s upload. At that point Aindreas Gallagher will have made his 10 billionth post bemoaning FCPX, which effectively brings the entire internet to a halt. This will lead to a revolution within the united states, where new laws will be placed into effect stating that internet is now a utility and not a luxury service, and the hybrid ISP will be broken into tiny regional services. Internet speeds will flourish to gigabit speeds for $40 per month. All former congressmen and senators who sold out to the ISP’s will be convicted of treason and sent to live in Canada, with only Rogers internets pathetic service. At this point tape will be pointless, as an entire high res movie will transfer in 90 seconds, using Super ProRes Pro.
Of course, I could be wrong. This is just a guess…
John Davidson | President / Creative Director | Magic Feather Inc.