[Tim Wilson]

This was so staggeringly overwhelmingly the #1 interface request that we’ve been getting for years that we felt that making the change was the only responsible choice. It’s frankly the only way that we see it being done at any forum, of any sort, anywhere on the web.

We’ve been doing forums for 20 years, since when the web was in its infancy (4 months after the release of Netscape Navigator), before PHP was even released, much less became usable for online forums…but we felt that it was time to catch up to what has clearly become the net standard.

Glad to hear that your preference is now persistent, though. It absolutely should be. This is in fact the one and only thing we do with cookies. We do NOT track your movements, but we DO endeavor to make your choices stick. Please let us know if this isn’t the case again, and we’ll take a look into it right away.

Yr pal,

Timmy
COW-boy

[Tim Wilson]

Blackmagic makes this sort of thing look easy. And hey, Nuke doesn’t look much different than Fusion, right? You click it, it opens, right? No big deal.

The difference is that this sale is proposed in the $200-300 million range, with nearly 400 employees. Compare AJA for example, with only 200+ employees. This is the definition of a big deal.

It happens that I talked about this very scenario back in December, when Carlyle first announced that The Foundry is for sale. I talked about it at ridiculous length, which I’ll summarize here.

I concluded that Adobe is the only realistic buyer.

Before I begin, two typical caveats:

1) I’m speaking solely for myself, and;

2) I’m an idiot. Few things would surprise me less than being wrong about major particulars in this.

But the major-est particular so far appears right on target.

Now then….

Another investment group won’t buy The Foundry. Carlyle’s asking price is triple what they paid for it just three years ago!!! It’s not a BETTER deal 3 years later at 3X the price. Every investment group that passed before is passing again.

Can’t be AJA or BMD. That December post has a lot of very carefully reasoned points, but the big one that I failed to include: They would have to pay cash..

Why? They’re both private! They have no stock to offer!

I admire both of these companies immensely. I also think we can agree that there’s no point betting on the limits of BMD’s acquisitive ambition. But it seems unlikely that either company has a few hundred million dollars in cash laying around.

Autodesk is out. Again, see my December post for a long and reasoned summary, but here’s what takes them completely off the table for me: a $250 million deal in the architecture space in February, I think the biggest in their company history. Feels soon to do another of such a similar scale.

(For reference, the last 9-figure Autodesk deal I can recall before this: $197m for Alias in 2006. Most are much, much smaller, such as $35 million for Softimage in 2008.)

I admit that I’d kept sniffing for Autodesk out of the corner of my nose, because they were the only other ones even theoretically in the game. That February deal is the one that reinforced my first impression, though. Not a chance I think.

Here’s the speedy summary of why I think Adobe is the best fit, and maybe the only realistic fit.

Adobe has the dough. Adobe also has the financial and structural resources to quickly take on another three or four hundred employees. Don’t underestimate the importance of that.

(Which also serves to emphasize the unlikelihood that Autodesk can take on 400-ish people so quickly after their last deal.)

Also, Adobe can likely pull off whatever stock / cash mix Carlyle is looking for. Macromedia was an all-stock deal, and haters gonna hate, but Adobe’s stock has been a big mover in same span that Carlyle has held The Foundry. Maybe Carlyle is looking for discounted stock.

Adobe also has cash. They paid $800m cash for Fotolia in December, although, again, this might disincline them to drop another 9-figure deal again so soon….

…but whatever the mix that Carlyle is looking for, a deal on this scale by no means appears to be a stretch for Adobe.

Perfect workflow fit. Adobe is clearly doing more than just a suite in our space. I have no idea what wonders for the world beyond ours may be hidden in The Foundry’s products, technology, or people, so I think we are ill-advised to focus solely on what this deal means for M&E…

…but ima do it anyway. LOL

After Effects in feature production is regularly used as a feeder to Nuke. Not exclusively, but the prospect of tightening up the workflow from Premiere (or, with Adobe’s new offerings even pre-Premiere) through After Effects all the way through Nuke has to have them drooling.

There are other people who can stake a legit claim for reaching from editorial to finishing…but virtually all of those projects still touch After Effects and Nuke at some point. Add that to the primary goal of Adobe expanding its own end-to-end pipeline, and this is a workflow nerd’s dream come true.

[Scott Witthaus] “I find it interesting that Carlyle had to hire another firm to “drum up interest”.”

Dang right they did.

I noted in December that the fact that any of us know any of this is highly suspicious. Deals this size are announced to morons like me AFTER they’re made. And why has the £150m – £200m figure, or the story around it, not changed? Lazy reporting? Wishful thinking on Carlyle’s part? None of this is looking good.

One thing that jumps out at me in this new article that I hadn’t seen in December coverage: The Foundry is making only £10m/year??? And Carlyle wants to sell for £150m – £200m???

Adobe seeing an opportunity for synergy is one thing. It could easily entice them into paying a higher-than-usual multiple. The 15-20x that Carlyle is asking, though?

I’m betting the under.

In fact, my guess is that, with no major rival, Adobe is exerting considerable downward pressure on the price. Carlyle hasn’t found the lever to press back, so they hired someone to help beat the bushes for another well-heeled, sympatico suitor.

Sad trombone sound. LOL I could have saved them a lot of time and money.

There are also many, many things we didn’t know in December that we still don’t know. On the seller’s side alone: why does Carlyle think they’ve tripled the value of The Foundry in 3 years, why are they selling now, how badly do they need the money, etc.

Noting again that I’m skipping a lot of the lengthier points I made in December, it seems less likely than ever that there’s even one more major suitor besides Adobe.

Noting again that I also have no idea what the hell I’m talking about. I’m just ruminating the way cows do, so watch where you step.

Anyway, I loved this deal in December, and I love it even more this spring.

I hope it happens, not just because it’d make me right, but because I’m a fan of Adobe, I’m a fan of Nuke, I’m a fan of ever-juicier workflow goodness, and I’m a fan of deals like this that swing for the fences.

Although who’m I kidding? I mostly just want to be right. LOL

[Tim Wilson]

[Dean Neal] “Maybe this Forum should be named “FCP X baseless bashings for PPro fanatics””

To Aindreas’ own confession, I’m thinking more along the lines of “FCPX or Not: Properly Pacing Drinking and Posting.”

[Tim Wilson]

Thanks Bob! Clickbait drives me insane. I assure there will never be any at Creative COW.

The one that is currently getting on my nerves is articles listed in newsletters or teased as “recommended” at the bottom of a page takes you to another page, where you have to choose the article AGAIN, frequently at another site.

I’m all in favor of links of course, and if a site’s publisher sees a cool article, by all means, they should pass it along…

…but talk about clickbait! At a certain point, it doesn’t feel like, “Hey, let’s find some cool articles to share.” It feels like, “How can we give the false impression that there’s any valuable content in our newsletter or on our website…since of course we don’t actually have any. But we don’t need to create high-value content. All we need is the click. Anyone who clicks will see some ads, even if they’re mad that we tricked them.”

When you go to those sites, mouse over some of the ads without clicking. They look impressive — they’re big, beautiful ads for some of the prestige companies in our business — but when you mouseover to see the URL they’d send you to, you can see very plainly that they’re Google ads. This whole scam is because some websites in our industry aren’t able to actually sell ads to the vendor. They’ve simply signed up for a Google program that feeds relevant ads, and the industry website makes money from the clicks, nothing more. It’s sad, and yes, incredibly annoying.

I love the content we have. I’d love to have a lot more. But generating quality articles and tutorials is haaaaard. It takes time. We’re working on it.

But we’re trying every bit as hard to preserve the high signal, low noise state of the forums too. I think we’re doing very well on that point, but honestly, nothing about this is easy. I’m so pleased that you’ve noticed our efforts on the content side, Bob. One thing I can pledge to you is that we’ll try not to annoy you, and we will DEFINITELY avoid fake content trying to trick you into clicking!

Thanks again,

Tim

Tim Wilson
Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW

[Tim Wilson]

Randy has certainly done his time in this industry, and left a legacy that will endure maybe longer than any other single designer/developer.

Any one of his accomplishments would be enough to put him in the running, especially Premiere, which is ground zero for desktop video imo, but even if we’re just talking about Radius, crucial pioneering work that made a whole lot of the rest of this possible, he’s a frontrunner, for sure.

I don’t remember what he did at Apple. Maybe one of you cats can remind me. LOL

What he did NOT do is have anything to do with the plans for pulling 7 on release of X. That had everything to do with Steven’s vision for burning his previous victories to the ground as often as necessary, ie, every time, to immediately implement his vision of the future.

Whatever else he was, Jobs was an astute observer. Maintaining Apple II and Mac simultaneously cost Apple years of development momentum, and cost it personal computing marketshare that Apple has still not recovered. You can’t maintain any kind of support for the past and keep moving forward, and Steve watched Apple learn this the hard way.

Sacrificing market leadership and high customer loyalty was a trivial cost to pay, and Apple suffered because they didn’t have the guts to commit to what it KNEW the future was going to be.

Not a mistake he was going to make again.

His compromise with the OS X transition via Rosetta wasn’t as bad, but still cost Apple tremendous momentum, both by squandering its own resources, and by distracting third-party developers and customers from the true goal, which was to get them into the future, NOW.

That was never going to happen again, and indeed, it hasn’t. Not with any part of Apple.

The Creative COW archives are replete with reports of iTunes updates breaking compatibility with FCP. Happened every time, for years. It’s not that Steve didn’t know. It’s impossible that he didn’t. It’s that he didn’t care. Moving you forward was more important than keeping you comfortable where you were.

I honestly don’t think it had anything at all to do with selling you new computers or software updates. I think it has everything to do with a laser focus on the future. There is absolutely no universe in which 7 was going to last a minute day longer than the arrival of the future.

You know who’s damn near perfect at backwards compatibility? Microsoft. Windows 8 notwithstanding, they’re also historically very good about gentle transitions forward. Even a moron like me can go to their website and see the roadmap for the next 15 years, including the dates for when compatibility guarantees and product support for every piece of software will end.

Indeed, the problems with Vista were virtually all because MSFT promised people SOME Vista compatibility with previous hardware, and people were furious that they couldn’t get ALL of Vista’s features on their old hardware.

The RIGHT solution is Apple’s: simply tell people on a very, very regular basis, you want the new OS? You need a new computer. End of story.

Want the new iOS? Pretty soon, you need a new device. Need to redownload old iOS software to reset your old phone? Tough.

For that matter, another lesson Jobs learned from Microsoft is that you can’t properly support software on other people’s hardware. (A mistake Google is making with Android in Apple’s vision, too.) It’s why killing the clone business that had kept Mac viable, especially in this market, was practically the first thing Steve did upon his return.

Make no mistake about Apple’s intent, now or in the future. Continuity is a problem, not a goal, and Apple isn’t about to be their own obstacle. They’ll burn their own marketshare and associated customer goodwill to the ground as often as it takes to focus all of Apple’s resources on bringing you their idea of the best possible future, as quickly as possible.

It’s the heart of the Apple experience.

It’s also why I’m still a little surprised that anyone is surprised by this. I’m definitely unclear why if it WASN’T Appple’s core ethos, how anybody thinks that the FCPX team could possibly have pulled it off.

Which is why I doubt that it factored into Randy’s retirement plans one way or the other. If he had a problem with it, he could have bailed at any point in the past four years. Whatever time he takes off, he’s more than earned. Whatever new venture he undertakes, it’ll be cool.

I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s not outside this industry, though. How much is left to accomplish here than what he’s already done? And done three or four times over at that?

[Tim Wilson]

[Charlie Austin] “Maybe he’ll show up at BMD. 🙂 The Cow would take down the entire internet if that happened. lol”

No, at that point, the COW would swallow the the internet. The COW would BECOME the internet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2ikHoBKVlCA

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[Tim Wilson]

[Robin S. Kurz] “…enough for a lot of people”

Now THERE’s a new forum name. “Good Enough For A Lot of People Or Not: The Debate.”

[Tim Wilson]

[Noah Kadner] “the only prescription is more cowbell. “

I know that a lotta y’all Hollywood types can drive over, but I swear that I got sick on the plane ride home every year.

I also think that more people coming from more places is going to make NAB get worse for spreading colds every year.

Actually, any of you cats remember NAB 2002 or so? Bird flu in Asia kept tens of thousands of people home, and most of the few folks from Japan who came were working the floor in masks.

That’s something the Japanese get right, btw. Maybe because they know too well the bad things that can happen when strangers wind up jammed together. Transit stations have dispensers for masks all over the place. No excuses man. If you’re coughing or sniffling, mask up. Or if you know that a lot of other people during flu season think they’re “too cool” to wear a mask? Then YOU need to mask up. I love it.

In the scheme of things though, if you go to Vegas and the worst disease you carry home is the flu, you should call it a win.

That’s Vegas for you. Even winning is pretty gruesome.

[Tim Wilson]

[Dennis Radeke] “Avid went PC only for a time based in part on what Apple was doing (going from 6 to 3 slot Macs and I believe system 9 to the first OS X).”

I know that I’m fighting 15 or 18 years of collected false memories here, but, as it keeps coming up, I do feel the need to at least try to set the record straight again.

Avid never dropped Mac support.

Never happened.

Never.

Happened.

Did I mention that this never happened? Because it never happened.

I should mention that, as I always do when this comes up, I consulted again with People Who Were There, including standing next to the key player as the following events unfolded, and this is rock solid.

Here’s what ACTUALLY happened.

There was a time, many years ago, when Apple was on the ropes, and even Apple’s most enthusiastic devotees were worried that Apple would go out of business. Anybody who was around at the time knows that this concern was not entirely unfounded.

Remember the clonemakers Power Computing? Their whole advertising campaign was built around saving Apple.

(Note too that even though the return of Steve changed the general outlook, as late as 2004, 7 years after Steve’s return, Apple’s stock price was still in the single digits!)

At Apple’s nadir, Avid only had Mac-based products, so at one NAB, one Avid manager was asked, with reasonable concern, What will happen to Avid if Apple goes out of business?

That one guy, NOT speaking officially, said very simply, If Apple goes out of business, Avid won’t. We’ll support our customers by moving to PCs.

THAT IS ALL. No statement of Avid deciding to leave Mac in any form or fashion. No threat, no hint, and no actual leaving.

In fact, please note: this is the OPPOSITE of Avid talking about leaving the Mac. The question was, what happens if Apple leaves ITS customers, by going out of business?

And the answer is, even if Apple dies, Avid won’t.

But from there, the “telephone game” of misquotes got underway, and continues to this day.

(Also, how did this rumor pass anyone’s sniff test at the time? I was a Media 100 guy at the time, mocking Avid as loud and long as I’ve ever mocked anyone, for every issue you can imagine — but Avid’s core customer base was the then-almost entirely Mac Hollywood community. Avid was clueless on many counts at the time imo, but actively suicidal? Ridiculous.)

In any case, just to remove any lingering ambiguity or misunderstanding:

Avid never left Mac. Not for a second. Never said they would leave. Never threatened leaving.

It never happened. Never.

Windows data points:

— Along the way, there were indeed some cross-platform products like Symphony that came out on PC first. The Mac codebase was in it from the beginning, though. The release timing was just part of Avid’s resource management strategy of staggered platform releases back in the day. Not the case anymore of course. Symphony cozily settled on Mac for years, and both platforms now released in lock step.

— DS and XSI were developed by Softimage when it was owned by Microsoft. Indeed, Avid bought Softimage directly from MSFT. There was no way the Microsoftness was ever gonna get untangled from those products, and none of them were ever released on Mac, including, to this day, by current owners Autodesk.

This is a self-contained story that has nothing to do with “dropping” Mac. Instead, Avid “dropped” a PC-only product line in order to focus on the core strategy of cross-platform development.

— In the middle of the last decade, AFTER Apple released the free iDVD and included DVD Studio Pro with FC Studio, Avid wanted to provide free DVD authoring software for its customers on Windows, so naturally, the bundled DVD software from Sonic was on Windows. No “dropping” Mac.

Otherwise, Avid never SAID they’d leave Mac, never THREATENED to leave Mac, never LEFT Mac for one single second, with one single product.

Never.

Happened.

To summarize:

• Apple was widely understood to be at risk for going out of business
• One Avid manager was asked what would happen to Avid if Apple went out of business.
• Speaking on his own, NOT reflecting any official language or position, gave a reasonable UNoffical answer: if Apple goes out of business, Avid will not.

Never said they’d leave Mac. Never threatened they’d leave Mac. Avid never left Mac. Ever.

I can dream that people might someday get the story straight. All these years later, it still hasn’t happened, but I can’t help myself from trying.

But that’s the actual story. Avid never said they’d leave Mac. Never threatened to leave Mac. Never left Mac.

Pass it on.

[Tim Wilson]

[Herb Sevush] “My comments about their identity had to do with the push to have Isis work with non-avid products, their push, as you noted , with audio as opposed to MC, and also opening up Avid to third party I/O. While this might be a corporate vision of inclusion, to an outsider it looks like “hey let’s throw everything up on the wall and see what sticks.””

My perspective from inside Avid was different. Customers were adamant about wanting support for third-party I/O, which most Avid customers already had on hand for a variety of other applications, including, yes, FCP, that they were also using. Hence their demand Unity/ISIS support for as many products as possible, at the highest possible level (ie, a lot more than just media).

Avid has always understood Media Composer as part of a workflow that included products from other companies, which is how it was designed from the outset. (Even moreso on the broadcast side, where no single company even tries to cover the entire workflow. Integrate with others or die.)

Avid’s support for other companies gets re-announced when new iterations roll around, especially one as high-level as the new effort with Adobe, but the idea is squarely in line with the company’s vision of meeting its customers’ demands for working with as many other companies and products as the customer themselves do.

Not that this is any comment on the rest of your post, or on anyone’s feelings that Avid isn’t making this vision, or others, clear.

But I certainly understand how the idea of working so intimately with other companies to support customer needs might seem bizarre or distressing to an Apple customer. *rimshot* LOL

KIDDING. Not saying you’re saying this, Herb.

But I think that a lot of Apple users have appropriately given up on expecting Apple to treat high-level third-party workflow interop as any kind of priority, or grew up in the industry in the past 15 years not even considering it a realistic option, or maybe not even desirable. Apple provides all, or I don’t really need it…because if I needed it, then Apple would provide it, a sentiment that repeats in, if I may call it, an Infinite Loop.