Keep in mind the market penetration of HDTV is higher than that of players.
I’ve heard a number quoted that said in any given year 20% of the households buy a TV. Given that nearly all TVs being sold are now HDTV that’s about 5 years for a full conversion. I’d say HDTV might be in the majority by the end of 2008 (within 15 months) or maybe mid 2009.
Players, especially due to the HD “war” may take longer. So here’s the directions I’m thinking.
Corporate presentation might be very quick. That’s a video displayed in a meeting. That can be done right now. A good H.264 or VC-1 file can be played back from a fast computer to an HDTV.
Wedding market. If the client has an HDTV put no playback one might build into the package delivery on an AppleTV at 720p24. Build in the cost of the AppleTV ($299) and the client will get the feeling they’re getting a “gift” with the wedding.
If the client has an HDDVD player (as low as $399) you can burn a “short form” MPEG2 HD version on a standard (or dual layer?) DVD and that’ll work. If the client has a Blu-Ray player (Play Station 3 amongst them) then you have to get a Blu-Ray burner (down to around $650 now).
Offering the AppleTV package seems to be the best way to market HD delivery at the moment in my opinion. I do think it’ll take a good 2 years for the player market to work itself out though.
I think SD delivery will dominate for another 2 years or so. Taking SI out of SDI of the EX1 should result in great quality 16×9 SD delivery. I don’t want my HD to SD workflow to be a time burden (money loser) so I’m looking for realtime downconvert.
As I mention above HD delivery for the “boardroom” corporate meeting may be there already given you just need to play the file back to an HDTV which I suspect corporate boardrooms with budgets may move to quickly. This means the EX1 may be in a good position to jump into that market and for various reasons is MUCH better than dealing with HDV.