I’d say your chances are close to zero. FCP X is super picky about replacing media. I wish they had a less picky option where it could warn you that things might go awry, but do you want to try it anyways? And have the option of replacing with relative instead of absolute timecode. But no. No such option exists.
Make sure the length, file size, bit-rate, sample-rate, filename is identical. Then you can give it a shot.