Andrew Kimery
Forum Replies Created
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It seems everyone these days offers fully functioning 30-day demos so that should address those that truly want to evaluate the software before they pony up the cashing to pay for it.
Things like subscription services and the Apple’s App Store will stop casual “Hey, can I borrow your disc of XYZ?” type piracy but it won’t cut down on cracked versions nor hacks. There are already hacks floating around that will ‘un-lock’ the 30-day demos as well as versions of FCPX that can be installed w/o using the App Store.
I will admit to enrolling in a night class shortly after graduating college so I could get the student discount on FCP 3.
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Yeah, that’s pretty much what I said, isn’t it? I guess I don’t see that as killing DVD distribution as Netflix DVD subscribers would be still be getting DVDs from Netflix but just via a wholly owned subsidiary called Qwikster. While Netflix backed down from that they didn’t back away from the price hike. I used to get 1 DVD a month + streaming for like $9/mo. If I want that same service now I have to pay I think $16/mo.
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[Andy Field] “But voting with your feet works. Look what happened to Netflix after it raised rates and killed DVD distribution. Mass subscriber exodus.”
Netflix didn’t kill DVD distribution, they just said they were going to spin it off, and rates never went back down.
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I keep seeing the dooms day scenario of people saying, “Well, certainly now that Adobe has this subscription model they will certain stop innovating” and I don’t understand the logic behind that. Lack of competition (or lack of perceived competition) lets companies get lazy. Did Avid need a subscription model to become complacent w/MC? Did MS need one to get complacent with Windows?
If Abobe’s master plan was to destroy the competition then coast they would have done it years ago, IMO. If they get complacent now is $50/mo really going to keep people from jumping ship? No. Heck, when Avid had people on installment plans because each seat of MC was the price of a luxury car people still found the gumption to switch to FCP so I don’t think Adobe’s subscription will be an insurmountable hurdle. Learning new workflows and new software will be a bigger hurdle for most user, I would imagine.
Sure, if Adobe gets lazy it will take time for the really hardcore AE, PS and Illustrator users to find equal alternatives but filling voids is the nature of the market place right? A disgruntled customer of Company X is a potential customer for Company X’s competition.
Maybe if I used Adobe’s products all day, every day I’d feel differently about the situation. Who knows.
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There is also Pixelmator if you are looking for a possible low-cost Photoshop alternative. It is Mac only though.
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[Tim Vaughan] “And second, what’s to stop them from deciding the price should be $100 per month? Or more? Why, in a month, that’s a very little purchase! Heck, it’s less than a tank of gas for a Suburban.”
If they jack up the price beyond the point people perceive it as a value customers will leave. Just like if Adobe doesn’t keep the apps up to snuff customers will leave. They still have competition and that competition will keep them honest. Lack of competition leads to complacency (ex. Avid during the early/mid 2000’s).
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[Gustavo Bermudas] “Also what about hardware? Being constantly tied up to a subscription model will make you have newer versions, which demands newer hardware, and it doesn’t seem they offer version history for download.”
Adobe alerts you to when updates are available but it’s up to you to download and install them. There’s no auto updating.
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I think Adobe will still have plenty of reason to improve their software, at least on the NLE side because if they don’t people will move to Avid, FCPX or possibly even Lightworks (optimistic, I know). It’s not like we are talking about back in the day when Avids were $60k/seat. *That* was an investment. Changing your workflow and getting up to speed on a new NLE are bigger hurdles than the $50/mo commitment for CC, IMO.
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[Herb Sevush] “I’m nor OK with being an after thought. For years PPro languished without much attention, until Apple gave them this opportunity. With their corporate orientation on Design, I can easily see them letting the NLE side slide after this initial burst of energy if the market doesn’t go their way. In the same way that i am uncomfortable dealing with Apple because of the tiny market we represent to them, I am wary of being a second fiddle in the Adobe universe.”
FCP Legend was never first chair at Apple. An argument could be made that MC was first chair at Avid yet that didn’t stop it from stagnating once they felt they had the keys to the kingdom. I know you are interested in Lightworks (as am I) but I doubt it is ever going to be the go to product for EditShare. Pr will probably never be first chair at Adobe but as long as these companies make compelling NLEs what does it matter if said NLE’s are the #1 priority? Even for more editing-centric companies there’s no guarantee they won’t go out of business, be acquired or just lose their touch.
I guess in the case of least worst, I don’t see Pr being a significantly worse risk than Avid or Apple over the next few years. If anything I think Pr has the most to prove and least to lose which is added motivation to press forward hard and fast.
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[Chris Harlan] “Overall, it would just be a bummer if this decision derailed Premiere. But, for me personally; no, it will not make me consider X, and generally, not change my plans at all.”
Pretty much exactly what Chris said.