The Macintosh – Is it a Time Bomb for the Hard User?

[Andrew Richards]

While I don’t completely disagree with your overall point that Apple sees iOS as its mainstream future, there are a number of your supporting points I do not agree with in terms of your conclusion. I’ll address them in the order they appeared in your post.

[Christian Schumacher] “What was added since Leo? -Coverflow – Quicklook -Exposé/Spaces
– Time Machine – All very, very iOSish features. Coincidently?”

I don’t follow the parallel you are drawing. Coverflow is useless eye candy, IMHO, but the other features all either predate iOS or were added to OS X the same year the iPhone debuted. Exposé dates back to Panther (10.3), and Spaces was borrowed from X Window desktop environments like GNOME and KDE in Leopard. Time Machine and Quick Look also debuted in Leopard. How is one-button previewing of a file in the Finder and in open/save dialogs in any way an iOS-like feature? iOS doesn’t even expose the user to a filesystem, let alone given them tools for navigating it. Lion may have added some iOS-esque veneer, but the features you listed, save for Coverflow, are hardly iOS window dressing.

[Christian Schumacher] “Meanwhile core functions like Menu Commands, windows lay-outs and file management are the same-old-never-updated since when? The XX century?”

The last major overhaul to the way the Finder operates conceptually was during the transition from OS 9 to OS X. It caused a stir not unlike FCPX is causing now. So if we’re keeping score, the original Finder bowed in 1984, and the modern Finder in 2001. If you were to use the Finder in Jaguar or earlier versions of OS X today, I think you’d appreciate very quickly how far it has come since then, due in no small part to the features you bemoaned above.

The Finder was completely rewritten in 64-bit Cocoa for Snow Leopard, so it isn’t as if it is being neglected.

[Christian Schumacher] “The beloved iPad was created to lead the way and to subsidize the
complete switch at the computer line of the ecosystem. “

The iPad probably is Apple’s vision for the future of general purpose computing. Steve Jobs described traditional personal computers as being like heavy trucks where the iPad is more like a passenger car. Both are needed in the world, but most folks don’t need a CDL to get around.

[Christian Schumacher] “The recent Mobile Me cut-offs were just another writings on the wall
at Cupertino Temple. God forbids creative users taxing their busy gadget servers.”

MobileMe was killed because it was a dismal failure. They didn’t kill it because some editors used it to share videos.

[Christian Schumacher] “Oh, and there’s is this handicapped Quicktime too. RIP QT Pro.”

QuickTime (the API) is dead, and its true replacement only just appeared in Lion. The QTPX that shipped in Snow Leopard was built on a false start of an API called QTKit. Apple did stumble on the transition away from 32-bit QuickTime, and I too am puzzled as to why they didn’t roll out a fuller-featured QuickTime Player X for Lion (since they now have the underpinnings to support it). I’m more puzzled no one has seen this gaping hole in the market and attempted to fill it with a modern spiritual successor to QTPro 7.

[Christian Schumacher] “It is going to restraint the user by preventing those new customers
from the mess they make with their own computers. “

They are already starting to obscure more of the filesystem from casual observers. Seen your Library folder in Lion lately? The day they take my Terminal away is the day I walk. Everything else is protecting users from breaking their Macs out of ignorance. And yes, the vast majority of them need to be protected from themselves.

[Christian Schumacher] “The hope for Apple in the near future is that the market ultimately
delays this process, easing the transition to its demise as a computer maker. I’m not sure though, they have been disruptive lately.”

I dunno, Apple seems to be outpacing the industry on both the iDevice and Mac fronts. The market must like what it is seeing.

As I stated, I agree there is an overtone of shifting general purpose computing to the iPad user interaction model. iPads are driving low-margin commodity PC makers out of the consumer space. Look at HP! They sell more PCs that anyone and they want to quiet the business because they can’t profit from it. Look at Windows 8, Microsoft clearly sees that the iPad computing model is the future of general purpose computing.

I think it will be quite a while before there isn’t a place for the Mac at Apple. And if that day ever does come, enough else will have changed that it won’t be nearly as bleak as you imagine it.

Best,
Andy

[Paul Dickin]

[Christian Schumacher] ” …they have been disruptive lately.”
Hi
I guess the writing on the wall – that Steve Jobs would have to retire from active management sooner than he would want – has meant an increasingly accelerated advance to what Jobs sees as the future. Faster than might have happened without the ticking clock of his health problems.

I think one his better insights was that further development of OS X should be held back until the overall strategy for taking iOS forward had been determined – that commonality in the structural-code base is good, but iOS should be the leader in this as it will be the eventual successor to OS X.

Nothing in all this has to be feared – though the fast-track disruption is an unfortunate spin-off of the accelerated pace of the changes.

[Andrew Richards] “Apple did stumble on the transition away from 32-bit QuickTime…they now have the underpinnings … I’m more puzzled no one has seen this gaping hole in the market and attempted to fill it with a modern spiritual successor to QTPro 7.”

Hasn’t Adobe attempted a parallel path option with their Mercury Engine development. Not knowing where Apple would be going with AVFoundation, haven’t they came up with an alternative?

FCP X has to be a part of the solution to plug the ‘gaping hole’, but I was expecting the pace of progress to be faster in this. Why doesn’t FCP X (= newQT) handle ALL media types natively…

[Gerald Baria]

The future of Apple is modal computing, nad absolutely no filesystem. It will be metadata based (just as FCPX is). THis has been Steve Jobs ultimate dream since he first designed the very first Apple computer, to create a compuetr for “the rest of us”. A powerful devioce with zero learning curve required. He has achieved it partially already with iOS, all you get is a sea of icons, which anyone from a 1 year old baby to a 99 year old granny can pick up and start using. Apps will fill the entire screen, pretty much turning your computer into whatever the function of the moment you intend to use it-a book, a piano, a gps, a notebook. Full screen. No windows. The device disappears, and the content (app) takes full center stage. And its just continuously getting more and more powerful. File system are a mess, its the worst result of Apple’s invented desk – metaphored GUI, (which MS eventually copied), and he’s been trying to remove for so long. Finally with iOS its closer than ever. With iCloud and metadata based access and manipulation by app integration, say goodbye to finder.

But this does not mean its any less powerful, in fact just the opposite. Apps will be much easier to use, and you can concentrate more on doing stuff that you need to do other than figuring out how to do it.

And that my friends is Apple’s future. Power to the people mofo!

Quobetah
New=Better

[Andrew Richards]

[Paul Dickin] “FCP X has to be a part of the solution to plug the ‘gaping hole’, but I was expecting the pace of progress to be faster in this. Why doesn’t FCP X (= newQT) handle ALL media types natively…”

The gaping hole I was thinking of is the one left by good ol’ QuickTime Player Pro, and its swiss army knife MOV manipulation capabilities. AVFoundation and CoreMedia are now firmly in place as the replacement for the old QuickTime APIs, but we’re missing the application layer at the <$30 utility level. I’m surprised a little indie developer out there, sensing the angst about the decline of QTP7 and having access to the Lion beta most of this year, hasn’t whipped up a spiritual successor to QTP7 to capitalize on the demand until Apple adds the features back to QTPX (if ever).

Best,
Andy

[Chris Kenny]

[Christian Schumacher] “It is going to restraint the user by preventing those new customers
from the mess they make with their own computers.

Hiding the OS from its user is a long known goal for the bitten fruit,
as anyone can attest – and this FCPx looks like a tiny part of the plan.”

I agree with this. But this direction isn’t just the future of the Mac, it’s the future of personal computing in general. Look at Windows 8: it boots by default into a radical new UI, and apps for that new UI are written using significantly updated system technologies, and distributed only though Microsoft’s app store. The whole industry is following iOS, not just the Mac.

FCP X, looking at both its price and its user interface, looks very much like the first NLE designed to fit into the “post-PC” era. But while Apple is moving first (they understand this change better than anyone, because the iPad was its catalyst), competing NLEs will also have to make this transition eventually. This is simply a straightforward consequence of NLEs being applications that run on mass-market platforms. Five years from now, Windows and OS X will both have been “touch-first” for a while, many consumer users won’t have had occasion to interact with the file system for a couple of years, most third-party application revenue (with the possible exception of enterprise volume licensing) will come from selling apps through platform vendor app stores, and more than 50% of the personal computing market could be tablets. You think Avid Media Composer could survive in that market with its current UI? Or selling at its current price point? Hard core fans might keep using it in their operating systems’ legacy environments. But new editors wouldn’t go near it.

People switching to non-Apple products because of concerns over how radical Apple’s FCP and OS X decisions are becoming need to understand that this radical change is sweeping the entire industry. Apple is simply reacting before most people (including most of their competitors) have figured this out. But Adobe and Avid must also eventually adapt or die.

—
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.

[Martti Ekstrand]

So basically what you are saying is that ‘non consumer’ users should switch to Linux asap.

check out my shorts: https://vimeo.com/marttiekstrand

[Chris Kenny]

I doubt it.

People never seem to think about the extent to which our existing professional tools were shoehorned into an environment designed for the broader market. I mean, what’s the hot new thing in post these days? File-based workflow. Err… files? Stored in folders? And our edit decisions are stored in documents? These are metaphors that were created based on the dominant use case for early personal computers: working with office documents.

Just as clever developers found a way to build professional video editing tools in an environment designed for routine office work, they’ll find a way to build such tools in the emerging post-PC world. FCP X already points the way forward, in many respects. For instance, you can import footage directly from a camera, and manage both your footage library and your projects (even doing things like copying footage to other volumes), without ever using the Finder. The UI no longer really relies on windows, and takes significant steps that would make it feel more natural with touch interaction. The price is in line with the expectation of lower price points due to app store distribution efficiency, and the app is neatly self-contained as required for app store installations. Add some APIs for direct exchange of data with other apps (so the user doesn’t have to explicitly mess with XML files, etc.) and you’re basically there.

—
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.

[Martti Ekstrand]

I’m even more convinced to move to Linux via Win7 now.

check out my shorts: https://vimeo.com/marttiekstrand

[John Joyce]

Apple of course does not own the mortgage on disruption.

If Apple does not have a very big rabbit still in the hat, we could be at one of Andy Grove’s strategic inflection points. Consider, for example, the impact of a decision by Avid to cease Mac development. Remember, they tried it before; and reversed the decision only after an outcry of protest, led by movers and shakers in Hollywood.

Do you think the same would happen now, if Avid dropped the Mac?

A sweaty decision for Avid, and it may be tantamount to betting the company. But if they got away with it, their development costs would diminish significantly. Adobe (and everyone else) would watch the unfolding events excitedly.

[Christian Schumacher]

Thank you for the precious perspectives. They were all very meaningful in this thread.

Let me wrap this up with these two quotes – but adding a silver lining to them at the end.

“And that my friends is Apple’s future. Power to the people mofo!”

“The whole industry is following iOS, not just the Mac”

Bring it on!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0vqgdSsfqPs&ob=av3e

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