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The Honda Ad Timeline
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[Herb Sevush] “That’s the “heard” mentality, and is the result of the way the rollout was handled.”
Nah, at this point it’s the “herd” mentality, at least here. This still comes from people who absolutely know it isn’t true. They’re just resistant to learning how to use X. And until a major studio, or vendor, or competitor “validates” it, it’ll keep happening. FCP 1 got the same reaction in my niche. But since it had no precedent, the “it’s no good” vibe faded faster. It also had the “not too different” thing going for it, which helped. I can tell you from experience that people didn’t start switching from Avid until they heard other “peer” companies were doing so. Someone needed to be https://www.apple.com/hotnews/articles/2001/04/trailerpark/“>first.
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~ My FCPX Babbling blog ~
~”It is a poor craftsman who blames his tools.”~
~”The function you just attempted is not yet implemented”~ -
[Charlie Austin] “And until a major studio, or vendor, or competitor “validates” it, it’ll keep happening. FCP 1 got the same reaction in my niche. But since it had no precedent, the “it’s no good” vibe faded faster. It also had the “not too different” thing going for it, which helped. I can tell you from experience that people didn’t start switching from Avid until they heard other “peer” companies were doing so. Someone needed to be first.”
This is par for the course, is it not (“no one ever got fired for buying IBM” mentality)? I mean editors didn’t all jump to Avid when it first came out and cinematographers didn’t all jump on RED when the RED One came out. It took people like Walter Murch and Steven Soderbergh to legitimizes these new pieces of gear. When Apple launched X not only were they launching a new NLE they were hitting the reset button on the inroads FCP Legend had made.
Personally I’m not that surprised about where X’s adaption rate is as its arc is already mirroring Legend’s trajectory back in the early 2000’s. I think within the next 3 years X will start becoming more viable in major US markets for long form work. You won’t be able to get the best paying gigs with it, but you’ll consistently be able to get decent paying gigs with it.
There are some big differences though between the path Legend took and the path X is taking. Legend competed mainly against Avid where as X has to contend with Avid, Legend and PPro. Legend also had a much more significant price advantage over Avid back in the day than X does over Avid, Legend and PPro. Also, I think a big question on many minds is, what does Apple do X becomes 10, 11, 12 years old? Will Apple blow it up again? Does the code base have longer legs than the code base for 7?
As always, this is just me speculating about things in my neck of the post production world.
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[Andrew Kimery] “The lower barrier to entry PPro offers is certainly appealing. Especially for multi-seat facilities. I know of at least two in LA that either recently switched or are planning to switch in coming months from FCP 7 to PPro.”
There’s another factor and that’s Apple’s hardware side. Growing with Apple hardware means accepting internal hardware changes in your sop that may or may not fit into the plans of many facilities. The changes with Xserve RAID, Xserve and the Mac Pro have turned off many people. Several customers of mine have or are considering changing to the PC platform, because a new HP or Dell better fits into their shop (replacing Mac Pro towers) than do iMacs or Mac Pro “tubes”.
If you’re going to make such a change, then, for NLEs, Avid or Adobe or maybe GVG Edius are the front runners. At least the first two are cross-platform, so having editors who know these, makes the change from Mac to PC a far simpler transition than from FCP to FCP X.
– Oliver
Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com -
[Andrew Kimery] ” When Apple launched X not only were they launching a new NLE they were hitting the reset button on the inroads FCP Legend had made.”
Agree, and I think even Apple would agree the launch of X could have been “tempered’ a bit. Like keeping 7 on sale for a while…
[Andrew Kimery] “I think within the next 3 years X will start becoming more viable in major US markets for long form work. You won’t be able to get the best paying gigs with it, but you’ll consistently be able to get decent paying gigs with it. “
Not sure about the timeline or pay grade, but that seems plausible. It could happen faster if someone “big” is seen as embracing X…
[Andrew Kimery] ” what does Apple do X becomes 10, 11, 12 years old? Will Apple blow it up again? Does the code base have longer legs than the code base for 7?”
I’m speculating here as well, but FCP 7 had tons of pre-OS X code in it. It’s kind of a miracle it still runs. FCP-X features seem to be being rolled out/updated as the underlying OS does, as a lot of it’s functionality is really dependent on OS level code/frameworks. In that sense i think it’s more likely that it’ll still be viable for a while.
I mean, Apple could decide to just sell phones, but I don’t see that happening. Even when I don my tinfoil hat. 😉
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~ My FCPX Babbling blog ~
~”It is a poor craftsman who blames his tools.”~
~”The function you just attempted is not yet implemented”~ -
[Oliver Peters] “There’s another factor and that’s Apple’s hardware side. Growing with Apple hardware means accepting internal hardware changes in your sop that may or may not fit into the plans of many facilities. The changes with Xserve RAID, Xserve and the Mac Pro have turned off many people. Several customers of mine have or are considering changing to the PC platform, because a new HP or Dell better fits into their shop (replacing Mac Pro towers) than do iMacs or Mac Pro “tubes”.”
I hesitate to use this term, but I think that’s a crossroad that “legacy” companies will have. Anyone setting up a new shop who wants to use Apple hardware can use an off the shelf RAID/SAN etc. and plug it in with one cable.
And I really think they’re doing the right thing with hardware. It’s a hell of a lot easier to set up and maintain shared storage/servers than it was even 5 years ago. We had an Xserve/X RAID setup for years. It was expensive. We have the same functionality with a Mac Mini/OS X Server and some pegasus boxes. For about half the price or less. Our Fibrenetix RAID still works just fine too.
I get it, especially for facilities that need “big iron”. But the need for that is changing.
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~ My FCPX Babbling blog ~
~”It is a poor craftsman who blames his tools.”~
~”The function you just attempted is not yet implemented”~ -
[Charlie Austin] “I get it, especially for facilities that need “big iron”. But the need for that is changing.”
I’m not saying that Apple is necessarily doing the wrong thing, however, Apple’s hardware changes come with a considerable amount of unpredictability and general disdain for legacy needs. That doesn’t set well with broadcasters and facility owners, so some have opted to go the safer and more predictable route.
The same is true of manufacturers. If you are Avid or Adobe, you get a pretty good hardware roadmap for development out of HP and Dell. Not so much (if any) from Apple.
– Oliver
Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com -
[Oliver Peters] “The same is true of manufacturers. If you are Avid or Adobe, you get a pretty good hardware roadmap for development out of HP and Dell. Not so much (if any) from Apple.”
Agreed, and Apple has clearly ceded the “big Iron” server hardware market to others. But I’m not sure the hardware roadmap, other than connectivity (t-bolt x, USBx, etc) really matters much any more, at least in the market Apple is still playing in. What Apple does give out is a pretty comprehensive OS roadmap. It’s not a long roadmap, but long enough so that SW vendors can adapt. Seems like they EOL stuff and it takes about 3 years for it to disappear. Which gives FCP 7 about another year. 😉
I’m just idly speculating though… I do see your point.
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~ My FCPX Babbling blog ~
~”It is a poor craftsman who blames his tools.”~
~”The function you just attempted is not yet implemented”~ -
[Charlie Austin] “at least in the market Apple is still playing in. “
I’m not sure that’s true. Apple is pretty schizophrenic IMHO. On one hand, they talk about not caring about the enterprise, but on the other hand they are quietly pushing their hardware and FCP X behind the scenes at many large broadcasters all over the world. You can’t have it both ways.
– Oliver
Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com -
I really like FCP7. I only use it as a hobby. But X is quickly winning me over. More quickly once I learn more. YMMV. But what was done here for the Honda Ad was Awesome!
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[Oliver Peters] “You can’t have it both ways.
“YOU can’t, but apparently Apple CAN. 🙂
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