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The Fog Thickens
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[Lance Bachelder] ” If Premiere can stay run smoothly on big projects (like feature films) I’d give it another chance”
I would describe my experience with a pre-relesse version of PrPro 6.0 on a huge feature doc project with all kinds of material: EX, 5k timelapse still sequences, many varieties of AVCHD, AVC Intra, 2 kinds of consumer camcorder, all different frame rates and sizes, and every one of them contained in a 2 hour HD timeline, as completely stable…as stable as any NLE I’ve ever experienced.
David
AllinOneFilms.com -
[Chris Kenny] “IMO the whole computer industry — i.e. the firmament on which the NLE market presently rests — is going to change radically over the next 13 years. Far more so than over the last 13. Pro video editing could mostly be done on 70″ touch screens running distant relatives of iOS, or by poking at empty space while wearing Google-branded augmented reality glasses. It’s crazy to try to make plans with respect to specific markets or products across the shakeup that’s already starting in personal computing.”
Thanks, Chris.
Subtley, that was my question to Timothy. I guess it should have been, who CAN you trust and why. And what would it take for a person to have total “trust” in one developer over another?
I don’t know the answer as I don’t know if an answer exists. At least that level of trust doesn’t exist for me personally.
As many times as we have heard “adapt or die” large companies face the same mantra, so who’s steering the ship?
13 years in this day and age seems like a really long time. I’m sure at some point this rapid development will even out a bit, but it does seem like we are in the middle of a lot of change due to smaller, faster, cheaper. Granted, there’s also bigger, faster-er, and much more expensive, but how many of us truly need that much? If we were all posting, stereo 5k DPX, yes, but 1080 ProRes/DNxHD?
I’d be shocked of there’s a product that lasts in more or less it’s current state over the next 13 years.
Jeremy
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[Tim Wilson] “There were indeed a number of company people wandering the floor at NAB 1999 yapping about the end of Mac, the world, etc. but *the company itself* never made any such announcement. In fact, Avid was adamant in its public commitment to staying on Mac and working with Apple. “
I remember those comments as well. There was some debate whether it was an “official” at Avid as opposed to “officially” from Avid. Yes, Avid themselves didn’t issue such a statement. Of course this may well be the reason why certain companies are completely silent (like it or not) outside of “official” statements or why they have planned (apparently unofficial) meetings in hotel rooms with selected individuals.
[Tim Wilson] “There were no PC customers because there was no PC version.”
Tim, I distinctly remember having two Windows NT based Avids in our shop around that time. Maybe it was shortly after rather than before but this was around that time, not years later. We may have purchased them after as a hedge for what we thought might be coming but this all due to the statements made by “someones” from Avid.
[Tim Wilson] “For all practical purposes, then, you’re not mad at a company anymore. You’re mad at a company NAME. What can a company do for you after the people who screwed you and the people responsible for them are gone? “
While I can understand some animus when companies do these things, ultimately we have to make the best business decision and if the very same company returns with a worthwhile product one should simply measure the ROI and make a decision.
In most cases the cost in a change of software is just not prohibitive especially when I compare to just a decade or so ago when it could be $50,000 a seat. I mean you buy a computer and NLE (or any other program) and if it’s dead in three years you buy a new computer and NLE. Sure there’s a learning curve but I don’t even find that insurmountable.
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[Michael Gissing] “13 years may seem like a long time but I think people over estimate the rate of change or more importantly the nature of change.”
The last 13 years don’t provide a very good guide to the next 13, because the personal computer industry has spent most of the last 13 years largely under the thumb of an oppressive monopoly. That’s starting to draw to a close, and we’re already seeing an explosion of new form factors, interaction mechanisms, software distribution methods, business models, etc.
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Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.
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[Chris Kenny] “the personal computer industry has spent most of the last 13 years largely under the thumb of an oppressive monopoly.”
apple? microsoft? standard oil? OK, I give up. Who?
Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
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nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf -
[Herb Sevush] “apple? microsoft? standard oil? OK, I give up. Who?”
Err… is it really necessary to specify that Microsoft is the industry’s traditional monopolist? They were legally convicted and everything.
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Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.
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[Chris Kenny] “is it really necessary to specify that Microsoft is the industry’s traditional monopolist? They were legally convicted and everything.”
How internet explorer has oppressed me for the last 13 years I don’t quite see. I must be missing something.
Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
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nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf -
That’s good news. Thanks for the report.
Lance Bachelder
Writer, Editor, Director
Irvine, California -
[Herb Sevush] “How internet explorer has oppressed me for the last 13 years I don’t quite see. I must be missing something.”
Windows has sat astride the industry for most of the last 20 years, effectively suppressing platform-level innovation. Microsoft’s ecosystem advantages were too vast for competitors to make significant headway. A variety of factors eventually weakened these advantages, most notably a) much of the value in personal computing for average users moving from native Windows apps to the cross-platform web (though Microsoft delayed this by capturing the browser market and allowing IE to stagnate for years) and b) competitors building up ecosystems in other markets (e.e. mobile phones) that are now transferring to some extent to products that compete with Windows PCs in some segments a bit more directly (e.g. iPad vs. netbooks).
At the same time we’ve also seen hardware advances begin to reach a tipping point where everything is so powerful that users are starting to favor portability over maximum performance, and Internet bandwidth in many countries begin to reach a point were a variety of previously impractical cloud services are now suddenly practical for many people.
The result is a personal computing market that’s more fluid than it has been in 20 years, i.e. more fluid than it has been during almost the entire lifespan of widely adopted digital NLE software. Because pro video is a little more performance-intensive than average consumer use the impact of this on our market will likely trail its impact on the consumer market by a couple of years, but our whole industry fundamentally rests on top of mass-market platforms. Change is coming, whether we want it or not.
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Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.
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[Michael Gissing] “I can’t see what is in it for them. Why do they need an editing system? Then again why did they need to build a camera?”
I’m not quite sure what their business model is yet but given their moves over the last couple of years I can easily see them buying an NLE. They bought DaVinci after all.
I think they’re trying to create an end to end ecosystem. Right now an NLE is one of the missing pieces.
As to some of the comments:
The interface. Companies by software re design the interfaces all the time. Even the new release of Resolve seems to have significant interface changes (to my eye).
Customer base. I don’t doubt many Media Composer facilities are using Resolve in their workflow. ProTools too of course which is why Avid MIGHT be of value. When you consider their I/O devices, the switcher, their recording device, their move into acquisition (camera), it REALLY seems like they’re looking like they’re creating a workflow monopoly of sorts. They may be aiming to offer a complete facility build.
The other Avid products. I’d bet a bunch might be sold off or EOLd. That’s the nature of business. Looking at Avid, they may have to do that if they plan on surviving. One thing seems apparent to me. If Avid sits still, they’re going to be finished sooner or later. The question for me is do MC/Symphony have some value in the market? Of course maybe if some see it as shrinking value it may well simply go away.So, to me, it’s either Avid rights the ship soon, they go under, they got sold. The question is what happens to MC/Symphony. If Avid rights the ship it may include a consolidation of MC/Symphony and that may be the plan with the current Symphony crossgrade upgrade.
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