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The Fog Thickens
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[Bill Davis] “From the hallway in McCaren where I’m recharging my iPhone while sitting on the floor…”
“Free” Vegas wifi.
Throw a quarter in the Wheel of Fortune for me.
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The Adobe dynamic trimming and all the new trim tools look pretty good in CS6. If Premiere can stay run smoothly on big projects (like feature films) I’d give it another chance – Adobe really has added a lot to CS6 compared to 5.5.
Old Avid guys call it the “hamburger”.
Lance Bachelder
Writer, Editor, Director
Irvine, California -
[Juan Morales] “My prediction: within now and 1 year, Avid will be bought by Grant Petty/Blackmagic…
Anyone thinks the same?!?”
Are we talking about the whole company, or the video division? If the latter, the main thing that makes me question this is whether Blackmagic would want the tech. In terms of internals (rendering engine, video I/O, etc.) they’ve got a solid foundation already in Resolve, and in terms of user interface Media Composer is a twisty labyrinth that’s only comfortably navigable to people who’ve spent years learning its myriad passages. Buying Media Composer seems like it would mostly be about buying a user base. But the user base in question is slowly shrinking, and the main reason it’s not shrinking faster is because of a conservatism that would make it very hard for anyone who bought the product to quickly transition users to a product with more mass market (and — critically — new user) appeal.
If we’re talking about the whole company, I’d imagine such an acquisition would be more about the audio side of things.
Also, Blackmagic being a privately held company (as far as I can tell) it’s hard to see if the financials of such a deal would be at all plausible.
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Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.
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[Juan Morales] “My prediction: within now and 1 year, Avid will be bought by Grant Petty/Blackmagic…
Anyone thinks the same?!?”I’m with Chris. I can’t see what is in it for them. Why do they need an editing system? Then again why did they need to build a camera? It makes a little more sense. Blackmagic may be looking at a finishinf sytem by extending Resolve into something like Smoke perhaps and if thney made it cross platform and matched or bettered the price then sure – I could see something in that, But buying a company that is not exactly profitable and competing against Adobe, Autodesk and to some extent Final Cut, not exactly a niche that has a lot of room for mass sales and profits. Recent moves like Teranex and da Vinci show an interest in finishing rather than nuts and bolts editing.
They would also need to then support AJA and Matrox or alienate the growing user AVID base. That would be interesting.
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[Juan Morales] “My prediction: within now and 1 year, Avid will be bought by Grant Petty/Blackmagic…
Anyone thinks the same?!?”
Buying Avid is buying a world of hurt. Remember, Avid is not just NLE software. Look at their product index. 535 products! Think of all the customers BMD would piss off if they bought Avid and killed 500+ products. And they’d have to kill most of them, because they’d drown if they didn’t.
Best,
Andy -
[Chris Kenny] “what I’m addressing with this argument is the notion that it was valid to draw significant conclusions about Apple’s long-term interest in high-end customers from the feature set of the initial release.”
Remember, this is about both the release of X and the simultaneous EOL of Legacy. From that launch I can only see 2 possibilities. Either they thought it wouldn’t piss off these high end customers, in which case they’re stupid; or they didn’t mind pissing them off because they’re not key to their vision of the market. In either case I think the conclusions were and are valid.
[Chris Kenny] “I think our hypothetical 35% (really if we’re exclusively talking about broadcast/post people it’s probably much less than that) are more vocal, but I think the weight of that mass of users on the other side counts for more in the long run.”
The 35% is your number: [Chris Kenny]At which point why should they have held it off of the market for an additional year (particularly with FCP 7 getting so long in the tooth) just to address the remaining 35%?
The 65% count for more only if your no longer interested in the high end. Kids go to film school to make movies, not to post cat videos on Youtube. Apple courted filmmakers for their influence, they obviously no longer care as much. I’m not saying it was a financial mistake, but I am saying they took their leadership role in that particular market and dumped it in the toilet. Believing it will come back might be a mistake. It might not.
[Chris Kenny] “Are you a hobbyist if you use FCP X to cut comedic web sorts you shoot with your friends? “
Yes
[Chris Kenny] “How about if you make money from ads on your site? Does it matter how much money?”
Not a hobbyist and it doesn’t matter how much you make, it’s the intent to make the money that counts.
[Chris Kenny] “how about if you work for a post facility in some technical capacity, but cut personal projects in FCP X on the side?”
If your a professional editor then personal projects are part of your craft. If your an IT guy cutting video at home your a hobbyist. If your an audio guy it would depend on what and why you were cutting – a vacation video = hobbyist, something that interests you and you see it as an extension of your work, then professional.
[Chris Kenny] “Say an individual with a day job that has nothing to do with filmmaking puts together a self-funded feature project, cuts it himself, gets into a festival, wins a prize and gets a distribution deal. Is this person still a hobbyist?”
No.
[Chris Kenny] “exactly when do they stop being a hobbyist?”
When it takes over their life.
Your a hobbyist if you don’t edit as part of your livelihood. Your an artist if your compulsed to edit for your own purposes, and it doesn’t matter if you make money or not. Your a professional if you edit for pay. I don’t find it vague at all.
[Chris Kenny] “There are no rules anymore.”
There are as many rules now as ever, you just might not know them.
Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
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nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf -
[Jeremy Garchow] “I guess I simply can’t project what my career is going to look like in 13 years, let alone what gear I’m using. Perhaps that’s something I should try and figure out.
I guess I am trying to tackle the bigger problem, and I am generally curious for my own knowledge.
If trust with Apple has run its course, is there an entity you feel more comfortable dealing with?”
IMO the whole computer industry — i.e. the firmament on which the NLE market presently rests — is going to change radically over the next 13 years. Far more so than over the last 13. Pro video editing could mostly be done on 70″ touch screens running distant relatives of iOS, or by poking at empty space while wearing Google-branded augmented reality glasses. It’s crazy to try to make plans with respect to specific markets or products across the shakeup that’s already starting in personal computing.
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Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.
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One thing that I have learned is the cyclic and embarrassing nature of prediction. Fusion power has been 25 years away for the past 60 years.
“Virtual Reality controllers are going to be the norm in 10 years”, was confidently predicted by the head of the AES in 1992.
Touch screen have been and gone in Star Trek and the DAW world for good reason and although often predicted, I don’t see them as a decent ergonomic solution. My experience of the iPad/Pod doesn’t change my thinking.
13 years may seem like a long time but I think people over estimate the rate of change or more importantly the nature of change.
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Quoting an earlier post, [Craig Seeman] “12 years ago Avid announced they were no longer going to support the Mac. The backlash probably changed their mind.”
I agree with you, Craig, with a historical tweak. There were indeed a number of company people wandering the floor at NAB 1999 yapping about the end of Mac, the world, etc. but *the company itself* never made any such announcement. In fact, Avid was adamant in its public commitment to staying on Mac and working with Apple.
It’s critical to remember that when Apple bought Final Cut from Macromedia, Avid Media Composer was MAC ONLY. After years of Mac-only editing, Avid’s Media Composer customer base was ONE HUNDRED PERCENT MAC in 1998. There were no PC customers because there was no PC version. Why would Avid threaten to leave 100% of its customers? That’s nonsense….
…but when your only platform partner for your core product declares war on you in 1998, you consider your options for 1999 and beyond. The option Avid chose: keep making software for Macs. So in 1998 Media Composer is 100% Mac and Apple buys Final Cut. In 1999, Apple ships FCP, and whaddya know, Avid ships Media Composer on Mac. In 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, etc etc: Media Composer on Mac. Oh yeah, and PC. But Mac too, through all those years, all the way to today. Macaroons.
In the meantime, what was the result of that 1999 imbroglio? Just a few months later, the then CEO, GONE. The then president, GONE.
In October of 1999, only six months after NAB, to replace them, a new president (later also named CEO) from Digidesign (an AVID company whose customers in 1998 were likewise 100% Mac) who was handling Digi’s transition to a dual-platform company more gracefully. (I think I’m remembering right about Pro Tools in 98. At least the documentation I have for Pro Tools 4 from 98 was 100% Mac. HOW all-Mac? Dude, there were approved configurations for Power Computing boxes! Woo-hoo! “Fighting Back for Mac!”)
That said, I think you nailed this, Craig. Avid DID say in 1999 that Symphony would stay Windows-only, but I think that customer pressure made a difference. Also worth noting: Symphony was originally $150,000, and you can buy it for 1/150th of that now.
So here we are. The people who mis-handled Avid’s in fact non-stop Mac support for Media Composer are GONE. Everybody who worked for them: GONE. The people responsible for them: GONE.
The only things that the company could do was hire somebody else, and keep making products for Mac. That’s what they did.
There are similarities at Autodesk in that the people who whatever — lied to you, misled you, killed your baby, whatever — are GONE. Your experience is as real and as painful as you say, so now you’re never ever going to trust…who? A guy who’s not there? Good news: HE’S GONE. People he worked for: GONE. People who worked for him: GONE.
For all practical purposes, then, you’re not mad at a company anymore. You’re mad at a company NAME. What can a company do for you after the people who screwed you and the people responsible for them are gone? Buy you a pony?
[Craig Seeman] So many products live for a few years and die, that I can’t simply expect eternal life for a software package. I just want to make enough money so my time to learn and return on use makes its lifespan, whatever that may be, worthwhile for my business.
Nicely said.
Buy something from Avid or Autodesk, or don’t. That’s your prerogative. But at some point, you’re the only one who’s responsible for how you feel. Not them, not anymore.
Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou -
[Tim Wilson] “There are similarities at Autodesk in that the people who whatever — lied to you, misled you, killed your baby, whatever — are GONE. Your experience is as real and as painful as you say, so now you’re never ever going to trust…who? A guy who’s not there? Good news: HE’S GONE. People he worked for: GONE. People who worked for him: GONE. “
Perhaps the person responsible for the FCPX situation is also GONE?
Steve Connor
“FCPX Professional”
Adrenalin Television
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