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The Fog Thickens
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Relating to IE, browser, the web, actually IE (and Microsoft) is very much a demon in this.
There are web designers who cursed that IE killed Netscape. IE didn’t keep to standards. The rise of FireFox was cheered by many and web designers couldn’t wish for the death of IE6 fast enough as later versions of IE had to become more standards compatible.I don’t doubt the Microsoft had a big impact on possibly limiting innovation at Intel since they couldn’t go beyond the limits of Microsoft’s operating system. I suspect that’s why Intel works closely (apparently at least) with Apple because Apple is very willing to push out new technology faster and make changes in the OS to support it.
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[Craig Seeman] “If Avid sits still, they’re going to be finished sooner or later. The question for me is do MC/Symphony have some value in the market? Of course maybe if some see it as shrinking value it may well simply go away.”
The big question is, are Media Composer and Symphony still products that can attract new users at a rate at least sufficient to replace users who switch to other NLEs or decide they’d rather grow organic heirloom tomatoes than edit video? And I mean real new users, not FCP 7 defectors — to the extent that occurs it’s a one-time bonus, not a path to long-term viability.
I just have trouble seeing it. About the only new editors I can imagine adopting Avid’s tools are film school students who buy into the “It’s more professional” angle. That’s a market, but I don’t think it’s much of one, numerically. Some established post houses might slowly add new seats, but traditional post houses are one of the top ten dying industries, so that’s not exactly a growth opportunity. What’s more, Avid’s traditional pricing on MC/Symphony is clearly unsustainable in a world where FCP X is $300 and many get Premiere ‘for free’ because it comes with a copy of Creative Suite they’d have bought anyway. So as bad as things are now, these product lines could be looking at significant revenue declines.
[Craig Seeman] “If Avid rights the ship it may include a consolidation of MC/Symphony and that may be the plan with the current Symphony crossgrade upgrade.”
Yeah, they’d be crazy not to consolidate.
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Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.
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[Craig Seeman] “Relating to IE, browser, the web, actually IE (and Microsoft) is very much a demon in this.”
And by delaying progress on the web, i.e. a cross-platform ecosystem, Microsoft kept ecosystem advantages concentrated on Windows, making it more difficult for competing operating systems to get anywhere. In other words, what Microsoft did with IE didn’t just hold back the web, it held back personal computing in general.
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Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.
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[Craig Seeman] ” I suspect that’s why Intel works closely (apparently at least) with Apple because Apple is very willing to push out new technology faster and make changes in the OS to support it.”
Huh. And here I thought the latest note on the relationship between those two companies was Apple making very public threats to leave Intel if Intel didn’t adjust their processor line to suit them.
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[Chris Kenny] “The big question is, are Media Composer and Symphony still products that can attract new users at a rate at least sufficient to replace users who switch to other NLEs”
That’s a very good question of course. All I can do is speculate but given the aggressive pricing and the EOL of FCP7, it’s share may be growing. It’s possible it’s only growing with the “old guard” though.
I think what a lot of people on this forum may be missing is that FCPX and some iMacs might be the “bargain” choice for a startup facility or for the person starting out on their own and growing into a facility in a couple of years. Interesting that that’s much how Evan Schachtmen started and it may be way he’s gung ho on it. He may see Apple doing that all over again. Over time the new generation will supplant the old. Apple will grow by attrition as the “opponents” age and retire (both equipment and personnel).
This may also mean that MC/Symphony are viable short term acquisitions, to be discarded as a company develops their own replacement. I’m just speculating here on that there may still be some value much like a sports team acquires an aging star with a few years left.
[Chris Kenny] “traditional post houses are one of the top ten dying industries, so that’s not exactly a growth opportunity.”
I STRONGLY agree with you on that. Maybe it’s just my impression but I’m not sure if people in this forum see that.
That’s, in part, why I posted about such things as “web only” series (albeit it’s still exploratory/experimental) because the need for a single location facility to produce such is, is less intensive. To explain, one may not be under the gun to produce weekly while a season is “airing.” There may be more flexibility in moving through the post production pipeline. One isn’t under the pressure of “make air by Wednesday 7pm PST” so much as “we need to have 6 episode in delivery by whenever” for Netflix or Hulu or AOL, etc launch.
It’s not that there’s no need for a facility but, for many reasons, there’s a declining need especially when compared to the growth of whole market and diversity of delivery.
[Chris Kenny] “many get Premiere ‘for free’ because it comes with a copy of Creative Suite they’d have bought anyway.”
Also consider why Adobe is moving to a subscription model as well. I’m not sure how that will work out but some people lease cars rather than buy as well.
[Chris Kenny] “So as bad as things are now, these product lines could be looking at significant revenue declines.”
That’s why I look at these things from the developer’s perspective as much as possible. Broad reach and into growing markets is important for survival and prospering. If people are worried about the longevity of their software, I’d look at the company’s ability to reach broadly enough to keep growing. Avid is definitely not one of them (at this point).
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[Tim Wilson] “Quoting an earlier post, [Craig Seeman] “12 years ago Avid announced they were no longer going to support the Mac. The backlash probably changed their mind.”
I agree with you, Craig, with a historical tweak. There were indeed a number of company people wandering the floor at NAB 1999 yapping about the end of Mac, the world, etc. but *the company itself* never made any such announcement. In fact, Avid was adamant in its public commitment to staying on Mac and working with Apple.
“FWIW, I can personally confirm this. I was at NAB that year and was told on the floor by Avid staff that they were moving away from Apple. As I recall, everything was running on HPs. Back in LA, however, I discovered a few months later that that view may have represented the feelings and resentments, wishes and desires of a number of employees, but was not the official view of the company. I’ve never really gotten to the bottom of what happened there, and there is quite a bit of historical disconnect, where people who were close to Avid deigned it ever happened. But, I heard it with my own ears, and have talked with many over the years who have heard it as well. If someone can ever shine a light on what happened there, I’d love to know.
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[Chris Harlan] “Huh. And here I thought the latest note on the relationship between those two companies was Apple making very public threats to leave Intel if Intel didn’t adjust their processor line to suit them.”
Apple leveraging their strength (real or perceived). There’s the GPU battle in relation to this of course. Intel is not happy that Apple is dealing with AMD. Apple is not happy with Intel’s “progress” on the integrated GPUs. This is all part of the speculation as to where nVidia fits in this. We (the public) don’t know all the pieces but the argument is happening because there is a MUTUAL reliance involved. Apple, pushes out Intel’s technology faster than anyone. In the USA Apple is the number 3 PC maker (they may be down around 6 or 7 world wide). HP has nixed Thunderbolt and Dell certainly hasn’t stepped forward there either. So even as Thunderbolt moves to Windows, Apple is the number one PC maker as far as far sales of Thunderbolt PCs are concerned (baring a radical jump in Lenovo, Acer, Asus sales).
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While I wasn’t at NAB, being a facility engineer I had lots of eyes and ears out there and when I get several messages from people who had direct conversations, just as you did, it hit me viscerally as well as like simultaneously blows to the head and stomach. There I was trying to convince the facility to dump their relatively recently purchased digital online room for a couple of Symphonies, Unity, a few more Media Composers and suddenly we’d be hit with, instead, having to fork over to move all the workstations at Avid’s proprietary and unfriendly “upgrade” pricing. Of course Avid never pulled the plug on Mac but the thought was truly devastating (and I mean financially as well).
Facilities (and individuals) face these changes every year whether it’s broadcasters moving from analog to digital, the new “calm” rules or the ending of the 700MHz spectrum used by many wireless mics etc. Sometimes it’s a company, sometimes it’s gov’t, but change is inevitable and it’s often coercive. I just don’t find what Apple did all that unique although each time something like this happens there are unique elements.
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[Craig Seeman] “I just don’t find what Apple did all that unique although each time something like this happens there are unique elements.
“I don’t either. In my head, I’m pretty much at peace with Apple. The only thing that really bugs me about them still are their epically poor communication skills. But, there’s nothing I can do about that. Other, of course, than not put all my eggs in one basket.
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[Craig Seeman] “Apple leveraging their strength (real or perceived).”
So when Apple does it they are leveraging their strength. When Microsoft does it they are a monopoly strangling the industry. Got it.
Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
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nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf
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