Software and Trust: The Google Example

[Chris Kenny]

[Aindreas Gallagher] “There is no road back Craig, even if the software wasn’t barmy, which it half is in the timeline, there’s just no road available to them at this point.”

You have zero systematic data. At best you’re off in your particular corner of the market, reporting what you’re personally seeing with in the circles you have direct contact with — probably with a fair bit of confirmation bias, because, well, humans do that, even when they’re trying not to. This is an industry where most work comes through word of mouth. And sentiment toward particular software travels through those same social networks. Consequently, the NLE decisions you’re seeing in your particular circles are not independent, uncorrelated decisions that you can treat as a proxy for the wider market.

In the circles I have direct contact with — mostly indie film, some commercial/music video work, centered in NYC — I’m not seeing much FCP X either. But I’m also not seeing the market settle on Premiere and Media Composer. As a post house, we have contact with a lot of productions that make their own choices about what NLE to use. We’ve gotten exactly two inquiries about Premiere (neither for features), one inquiry about FCP X, and everything else is still FCP 7 and Media Composer, in the same proportions as two years ago.

So FCP X isn’t exactly winning, but it hasn’t lost yet either. And now that Apple and other developers in the FCP X ecosystem have had a chance to fill in key core functionality, this, I suspect, is where things start to get interesting.

—
Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.

You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.

[Bret Williams]

That’s what I’m seeing in ATL too. I don’t know a single freelancer that has gone Premiere. Shops that had Avid and FCP still have Avid and FCP. The big corporations that make more shows a year than most networks are still on FCP 7 with only slight curiosity about what is next. Generally, the talk there revolves around FCP X, whether it be curiosity or complaining. Avid is out of the picture in most of the corporations as most of the corporate freelancers at this point have never used it. And many of them are playing with X at their home suites and on their laptops. In my work producers do a lot of the pre-cutting after a shoot, and they aren’t even thinking Premiere. But they love X.

So broadcasters and hollywood don’t care for it. Ok great. I still think they’re a pretty small, yet visual, part of the market.

[Ben Mullins]

I’m based in London too and have switched from Legacy to PPro. I can’t speak for the rest of London but the other editors I do know have either stayed with Legacy or moved to PPro as well (with 1 moving to MC). None have taken up X. This is all for corporate work with the exception of the chap who went with MC (makes the most sense for broadcast at the moment I think). Again this is just my experience and I’m sure there are others who can say different. Just what does it all mean?!

[Bret Williams]

I think John’s example could happen. You have to connect every 30 days. I have CS6 cloud installed on 3 systems. Only 2 can be active at a time. The minute you activate the third, the other two go down. Well, once they check in. Could be a day, could be a month. But when they go down, they’re down. You have to enter your ID and all again. I’m sure there is a small 2 or 3 day grace, but there is the potential for the internet to go down at just the wrong time. I think I would have to get creative at that point. It wouldn’t be the end of the world. For $20 I can turn on Verizon tethering on the iPad and bingo, I have faster internet than my home connection. Or I could turn on tethering on my iPhone (and lose my unlimited data plan) and activate through that. Or go get some 3G usb dongle thing from ATT and use that. I might lose a couple hours.

Now Andreas is worried about them raising the cloud price after everyone is hooked. It could happen. But that’s what capitalism and freedom of choice is for. Tends to keep companies from gouging you too much. There are other options out there. Can only gouge so long.

My question is that I had the physical CS5 master collection before I got the $29/month CS6 upgrade pricing. That goes away in a few months and I’m on the $49 plan. Can I now sell my CS5 serial since my CS6 cloud will have absolutely no connection to it anymore? Would seem logical. I might have to cancel the cloud for a month just to alleviate confusion.

[Aindreas Gallagher]

lets try a little test:

Go to Mandy.com – they list hundreds of edit jobs per month across the US, UK, worldwide, every single month – put in a search for Premiere – I get the weekly job listing digest so its really easy for me to do as a Gmail search, which I have just done.

Every week now for months and months Premiere Pro has been featuring as a main title rider on multiple job Applications along FCP7 and media Composer.
like this:

Premiere Pro/FCP Editor – HuttonMiller, LLC – Boca Raton
FCP/Premiere editors wanted – Elysium Productions – You can work from anywhere
Premiere Editor & Shooters – Allegory Productions – NYC
Freelance FCP7/Premiere Editor – Confidential – Orlando
FREELANCE EDITOR – Confidential, Toronto.
looking for a skilled Freelance Final Cut Pro 7 Editor who has recently made the move to Premiere Pro 6 (or is keen to do so).
FCP/Premiere Editor – Durango Effect – Los Angeles
Final Cut/Premiere Pro Editor (Italian) – The Putty Division – Brooklyn
Adobe Premiere Pro Editor – Confidential – Manhattan

thats all from the last four months or so.

Now, what I want you to do next is put in FCPX:
it currently lists one return on the whole of mandy worldwide:

Editor with LP Productions
(Los Angeles area – USA California – South), As Soon As Possible for Until project is completed.. I am a Producer/ Director and I’m looking for a FCP EDITOR (not FCPX) to cut our 19 page pilot “Shadows” and 2 trailers for our pitch.

Hilarious isn’t it? i mean its almost too perfect.

So look now – seriously – you guys can try all this “I don’t hear about premiere” “no one is talking about premiere” “it’ll break for FCPX any day now” -but the thing to remember is no one believes a word you are saying because your statements are not based in reality.

The industry is shifting to Premiere – its been noticably accelerating for the last six months.

No one is using FCPX, no one is posting jobs for FCPX or ever has – outside of the desperately grinning guys on macbreak weekly and ripple training and… about twenty guys on this forum, FCPX is as dead as a very, very dead doornail.

I just like to occasionally come on and remind you all of that fact.

Dead. As. A. Dodo.

https://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics

[Charlie Austin]

[Aindreas Gallagher] “I just like to occasionally come on and remind you all of that fact.”

Because you are a troll. And a very good one at that. 🙂

————————————————————-

~”It is a poor craftsman who blames his tools.”~
~”The function you just attempted is not yet implemented”~

[Aindreas Gallagher]

I take that reply as someone with their fingers in their ears going “LaLaLa can’t hear you”.

https://vimeo.com/user1590967/videos http://www.ogallchoir.net promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics

[Dennis Radeke]

I’d just like to note (tongue firmly in cheek!) that Aindress is NOT on the company payroll! 😉

That said, we (Adobe) are enormously proud of the progress we made and my only promise to you is that we will not rest on our laurels and will continue to strive to make our products better for you our users.

Dennis – Adobe guys

[Charlie Austin]

[Aindreas Gallagher] “I take that reply as someone with their fingers in their ears going “LaLaLa can’t hear you”.”

Absolutely not. I mean, I look at Mandy occasionally as well. I am thankful I’m not freelancing. All I can say is that the more I use X, the more I like it.

————————————————————-

~”It is a poor craftsman who blames his tools.”~
~”The function you just attempted is not yet implemented”~

[James Culbertson]

[Aindreas Gallagher] “Dead. As. A. Dodo.”

And here I thought most editing jobs came by word of mouth. What percentage of editing jobs go through Mandy.com?

I’d be interested in knowing what the relative throughput and viewership of the various NLE forums on Creative Cow is.

In any case, it is clear from my part of reality that editors will need to know FCP legacy, FCPX, Premiere, and possibly AVID MC for the foreseeable future. There doesn’t appear to be any compelling evidence for editors settling on one particular NLE at this time… if anything FCP legacy is still winning the NLE battle for the moment.