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Risk and failure
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Mike I don’t accept your initial premise about Apple’s “failure” because it is so premature to call it that. And you’re conflating two things: the relative merits of the new software, and Apple’s business behavior/PR problems regarding the established user base.
Both of those have potential to be resolved in a good manner. Not saying they will, but not saying it’s impossible, which is what your premise sounded like to me.
Really, everybody should take a breath and let X develop into something that eventually makes everybody as happy as 7 did. It’s okay to be disappointed; I was too. But time moves on. It will get better. Or it won’t. Some of us will go ahead with it, others won’t.
The one thing that can’t help the situation is to throw up our hands and get all “emo” about it. These are business decisions, and we make business decisions in return.
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[David Roth Weiss] “If you want to be ignored get yourself a cat.”
More like a wife! Wait let me rephrase a wife of 15 plus years!
hehe j/k
Buddy
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So is it really a failure?
The argument goes on. However, as far as I can see the only serious marketing Apple did was to real pros in its private then public sneak previews, which were clearly designed to create buzz in the professional ranks.
It’s hard to imagine that those two events and the words and tone of the press release on the day of release (“the biggest advance in Pro video editing since the original Final Cut Pro”) were part of a conspiracy to dump professionals.
I think it’s less complex than that. Sure Apple most wants FCPX to appeal to everyone with any kind of camera, but it needs the pros to keep the program’s image burnished because consumers love feeling part of the great moviemaking machine. But the FCPX team simply failed to create the universally-useful tool that I suspect Apple — maybe Steve himself — had in mind.
In the long term, perhaps it’ll be OK, but right now just comparing FCPX to what Apple promised at those events and in the press release, FCPX is a failure. Promise>reality=uh oh. There are certainly recovery routes, but not until that failure is recognized by Apple.
Mike
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I’ve grouped your points by explanation, with any specific comments included afterwards.
Attributable to common Apple practices such as aggressively consolidating product lines, deliberately discouraging the use of media formats Apple disfavors, or shipping initial versions of software and devices with ‘important’ features missing:
Shake, Color, DVD Studio Pro, Soundtrack Pro, Cinema Tools, Xserve, Final Cut Server?
The fact that DVDSP never got Blu-ray? — Notice Macs still can’t play Blu-ray either. Apple just doesn’t like Blu-ray. Or discs in general, these days.
The lack of proper video monitoring?
Attributable to Apple’s culture of secrecy:
The fact that Apple didn’t bring more third-party developers on board before the FCPX launch?
The fact that Apple allowed rumors of the vaporware Phenomenon compositing project to persist for years?
Attributable to factors beyond Apple’s control:
The fact that the Mac Pro line has gone for over a year without an update twice since 2008? — Apple updates the Mac Pro whenever Intel releases a new generation of suitable processors. The Xeon doesn’t get updated as fast as Intel’s consumer processors.
Attributable to Apple believing it has a better way:
The fact that Apple removed ExpressCard 34 from the MBP 15″ in place of a memory card reader? — Apple’s better way is Thunderbolt. Yes, I’m aware it didn’t show up at the same time ExpressCard was removed on the 15″. But they left ExpressCard on the 17″, clearly understanding there were some people who really needed it.
The fact that Apple has essentially sidestepped the VARs that supply many pro’s studios? — Apple has been pretty obvious about their better way here.
The sudden EOL of FCP7 — with no new product that can read its project files, and the stated suggestion that there will be no migration tool? — No migration tool because the timeline approach that Apple thinks is superior makes one difficult. EOL of FCP 7 discussed more below.
Not really accurate:
Goofy little things like glossy displays instead of matte? — Glossy displays are sharper and have higher contrast. They’re not obviously worse for professional work. In fact, they’re better if you can control environmental light, which we build suites for in this business. Also, Apple has gone out of its way to continue offering matte displays on the MBP. On towers they don’t really need to, because you can use any screen.
The fact that Apple has basically ended NVIDIA support at exactly the time that Autodesk and DaVinci really began relying on it? — Apple reevaluates this with each generation of machines. Expecting them to put NVIDIA GPUs in every Mac in every generation because of a couple of apps is not really reasonable. Lion actually adds support for additional GPUs, including NVIDIA GPUs. Apple created OpenCL and pushed it as a cross-platform standard to solve this problem long-term.
You may strenuously disagree with Apple about its decisions in some of these cases. That’s not what this discussion is about. This discussion is about Apple’s motivations. And all of these actions are explainable without resorting to the explanation that Apple doesn’t care about the pro market. In fact, they’re all explainable by aspects of Apple’s corporate culture that are pretty widely understood and that we can see operating in other market segments.
Meanwhile, this is all cherry-picking. There are other things that show Apple does care about the pro market, including the fact that they rewrote FCP at all and many of the features FCP contains, Thunderbolt, some seriously high-end laptops, the continued existence of the Mac Pro, etc.
Finally, let’s come back to the issue of Apple no longer selling FCS3: I believe this to be an error on Apple’s part. I think they’re really excited about the whole App Store thing, and they’ve always been obsessive over inventory management and small product lines. They probably figured people who really needed copies of FCS3 could still find them aftermarket, and they think through all of the implications this would have for their institutional customers. Their culture of secrecy, remember, probably means the institutional sales reps where totally out of the loop and couldn’t point these problems out.
Whether Apple will admit this error and backtrack, it’s hard to say. But as an error, one can’t really read much in the way of motivation into it.
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Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.
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[Mike Parfit] “So is it really a failure?”
Hi
Whilst FCP X is unlikely to remain on any academic curriculum for some time, I expect the launch, like Edsel or New Coke, will feature in the syllabus of most Business Schools marketing courses for the next half century or so.
The bigger you are the harder you fall 🙁 -
[Mike Parfit] “So is it really a failure?”
Yes, it’s really a failure.
The non-pros who are clearly Apple’s targets don’t aspire to remain as permanent “Youtubers” all their lives. That’s the mistake Apple has made.
Without the tools to learn and to collaborate and to work and to exchange like professionals do, Youtubers will remain Youtubers.
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BTW Mike, THE WHALE looks like a superb film and the trailer is superb.
David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist
David Weiss Productions, Inc.
Los Angeles
https://www.drwfilms.comDon’t miss my new tutorial: Prepare for a seamless transition to FCP X and OS X Lion
https://library.creativecow.net/weiss_roth_david/FCP-10-MAC-Lion/1POST-PRODUCTION WITHOUT THE USUAL INSANITY ™
Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Business & Marketing and Apple Final Cut Pro forums.
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[Chris Kenny] “But as an error, one can’t really read much in the way of motivation into it.”
and me with a shiny new auto card response, given to me by a half decade apple FCP developer. and well, It’s sort of debating kryptonite.
“Apple doesn’t care about the pro space ”
“The pro market is too small for Apple to care about it.”
http://www.ogallchoir.net
promo producer/editor.grading/motion graphics -
Must. Not. Get. Involved.
Oh, sod it.
The thing is – I agree with everyone here. I agree with Chris about the future. I agree with everyone else about the present. In my head, in know the damage has already been done. I don’t honestly believe Apple did not forsee ALL of this. Cancelling 7 was as clear a marker as we could ever hope to get about their views.
It’s too late now – unless Apple acts immediately to counter the offers made by Adobe and Avid, that’s it. Game over. It will be that swift, and that final. Because if they don’t act now (2 days, a week) it means they will never act. It means all of this is actually going according to plan. Genuinely – I still don’t believe that, I still read something more into Lion support of 7 than anyone else, apparently. I still think an epic U-turn is possible.
I’ve bought extra systems and 7 licenses this week. I have a mature and best-in-market solution for tapeless outside broadcast workflow locked in, and a line of clients forming for the Olympics next year – what else can I do. But I will also be looking to AVID to step up and offer the kind of open integration FCP gave me. It’s a shame it’s not there yet.
And lastly – I’m pissed because I like X. With 7 still available, it would be so much easier to love it.
Edit Out Ltd
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FCP Editor/Trainer/System Consultant
EVS/VT Supervisor for live broadcast
RED camera transfer/post
Independent Director/Producerhttps://www.blackmagic-design.com/community/communitydetails/?UserStoryId=8757
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[james carey] “and that’s exactly what may happen. Both Adobe and Avid recognize this opportunity to increase their market share and are already reacting to it. If Apple loses enough of it share, and I hear it has recently climbed to just over 50%, then it won’t matter how good the upgrades eventually may be. By then 3rd party will have deemed support not worth the ROI. The biggest mistake Apple made was its business decision. That is if they really cared about staying in the professional post production marketplace in the first place. A very good case could be made to the opposite.”
The biggest issue I see with people leaving, is that Apple is at a disadvantage hardware wise. They do not have the luxury of a FCP X Windows 7 version. Once people invest in PC hardware to go with Adobe or another, they will definitely not return anytime soon. They might keep existing Mac hardware if its relatively new and buy Adobe Mac version. Lets say it isn’t and it was time for an upgrade. You can forget them migrating back anytime soon. Especially when you can buy the latest and greatest hardware at any moment when it comes to PC. Not to mention price is much cheaper for the most part.
Buddy C
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ROTFL
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