Keep in mind, though, this discussion appears to have taken place before the preview of the new Premiere Pro went up. During the part about Adobe in the third video the guy on the end said that “If we could have this discussion in a couple weeks things would be a lot different.”, or something like that. After seeing the Preview for CS7 (or whatever it is they’re going to call it), and the excitement it’s generated, I think he was on to something…
“Up until here, we still have enough track to stop the locomotive before it plunges into the ravine… But after this windmill it’s the future or bust.”
Yes, I think people are taking note that Apple is filling out the feature set and workflow models. I suspect it’ll take another couple of major releases (basically the rest of 2013) to round out some functions. That would mean next year FCPX will be in the running. Advances in collaborative workflow will probably be most critical.