Orlando Post Pros’ NAB Recap

[Tim Wilson]

[Oliver Peters] “A video from our annual meeting this week, if you have about 90 minutes to kill ☺”

That’s Bob Zelin in the thumbnail, so the operative word is definitely “kill” — as in, he might kill you if you don’t watch! ????

Thanks for sharing this! I’ll check it out! Please don’t hurt me!

[Andy Patterson]

At 17:30 Bob Zelin basically said the exact same thing I have said many times but I get dissed for saying it. Will Bob get dissed for saying it or be revered as a genius with tremendous insight?

FCPX and DR are getting less expensive. Almost free as stated by Bob himself as compared to the prices of the past. While $49.99 for the Creative Cloud might seem like a good deal today in another two years it might seem expensive compared to the competition. I stated that in another thread and Bob implied it in this video. Having said that Lightroom and Photoshop are kind of the industry standard for photo editing but they are bundled together for $9.99. Adobe owns the photography market so they really don’t need to cut any deals for those two programs. On the other hand the video editing market is very very competitive right now as Bob stated in the video but you don’t see Premiere Pro, AE and Audition bundled for $9.99. Will Audition become part of Premiere Pro like Fairlight is part of DR? Who knows? I think Adobe is going to have to pick up the pace on their updates and also make alterations to the CC. Obviously I am not the only who sees the competition as a threat to Adobe’s CC paradigm. I think BMD dropped the price of DR to compete against Avid, CC and FCPX but who knows for sure? I think DR was revamped because BMD really wants to gain market share for DR since AV hardware is becoming obsolete as stated in this video.

On a side note I still use my Intensity Shuttle when editing interlaced video and for client previews. For $199.99 it was well worth the money but I doubt I will ever need to buy another AV I/O devices again. BMD did a good job with the Intensity Shuttle in my opinion. Having said that I may soon become a paying customer of DR 14.

[Andrew Kimery]

[andy patterson] “At 17:30 Bob Zelin basically said the exact same thing I have said many times but I get dissed for saying it. Will Bob get dissed for saying it or be revered as a genius with tremendous insight? “

Disagreeing isn’t dissing. Of course all companies have to find ways to keep competitive, but (again) I think value weighs more than price alone. FCP X has been $299 for how long? Adobe CC has been $49.99 for how long? A nearly fully functioning version of DR has been free for how long? The big drops in price (and I mean compared to 15-20yrs ago) and opening up of hardware means that it’s no long an either/or choice. It’s very affordable for people to have access to multiple NLEs if they choose (even more affordable if you just need a short term rental from Adobe or Avid). For example, I currently have copies of X, Adobe CC, DR (paid version) and MC (and still FCP 7 just in case) and that wouldn’t have been affordable 15 years ago. Yet now, at last in my experience, it’s fairly common for people to have multiple NLEs installed on their system (which is mostly like an off the shelf Mac or PC).

With regards to MC First, Avid has gone the free NLE route before (as well as making other down market versions) and it never worked out well for them. Maybe it will be different this time, maybe not, but MC First certainly isn’t any competition for free DR. On a related note, anyone keeping track of how well ProTools First is doing?

[andy patterson] “Having said that Lightroom and Photoshop are kind of the industry standard for photo editing but they are bundled together for $9.99. “

This is my take on that, when Adobe first offered the $9.99 bundle Apple’s Aperture was a still serious competitor to Lightroom and given the extreme ire over going CC only I think Adobe was worried they’d lose a huge part of their base to Aperture and a ‘good enough’ Photoshop replacement like Pixelmator. The rest of the suite didn’t really have competition like that which is why the photo bundle is a one-off thing (at least for now). Sure, PPro has competition, but what about After Effects? And how many editors need After Effects? If an editor already pays the $49.99 to get After Effects, doesn’t it seem likely that they’ll give PPro a shot since it’s included in the $49.99? Especially if this is a few years ago and it’s an FCP 7 editor looking for a new NLE.

When Adobe starts missing it’s subscriber goals I think they’ll do something like offering bundles (similar to the CS bundles) for $34.99 or $39.99. I wouldn’t expect Adobe to drop the bar too low because once you offer something for a lower price, it’s extremely difficult to go up again.

[Andy Patterson]

[Andrew Kimery] “Sure, PPro has competition, but what about After Effects? And how many editors need After Effects? If an editor already pays the $49.99 to get After Effects, doesn’t it seem likely that they’ll give PPro a shot since it’s included in the $49.99”

Why pay $49.99 for CC if the competition can make a better offer? What if BMD offers fusion and DR for $199.99 at NAB 2018? I doubt that will happen but who knows for sure? FCPX is only $299.99 and Motion is only $50.00. The competition in the world of NLE is lowering prices. Some could argue that if Adobe still had the CS paradigm the prices might have had to drop slightly to compete with the competition. I am not saying Adobe will drop the CC prices but they may loose some revenue. As I have stated $49.99 is not a lot of money for a post production house but for a web blogger it is. Not everyone has clients in the year 2017. Some do it as a hobby. There was a time when Adobe cared about the little guy. The little guy might opt for DR or FCPX. Will BMD have a photo/graphic arts program at NAB 2018 for $99.99? Who knows? I would not be surprised if it happens. I think BMD realizes the value of software. $49.99 per month is not bad but competition is out there. For some DR and FCPX might be a better option. I don’t doubt BMD is looking at purchasing other software titles.

[Ralph Hajik]

Hi Bob

Great video, information and time well spent to watching this video. I highly recommend it.

Happy Travels
Ralph Hajik
RJTravelMedia
https://www.RJTravelMedia.com

[Oliver Peters]

[andy patterson] “What if BMD offers fusion and DR for $199.99 at NAB 2018? I doubt that will happen but who knows for sure? FCPX is only $299.99 and Motion is only $50.00”

If we are talking about pro users, price isn’t a factor here. Both Fusion and Motion have radically different approaches to AE, so therefore AE is still pretty entrenched. The price isn’t going to be a determining factor. Same reason Flame continues to exist.

[andy patterson] “Will BMD have a photo/graphic arts program at NAB 2018 for $99.99? Who knows? “

Serif Affinity and Pixelmator have been out for a while. Both groups are excellent products and legitimate rivals to Photoshop and Illustrator. Yet they don’t really seem to be much of a challenge to Adobe.

– Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com

[Oliver Peters]

[Ralph Hajik] “information and time well spent”

Thanks for your kind words.

– Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com

[Andy Patterson]

[Oliver Peters] “If we are talking about pro users, price isn’t a factor here. Both Fusion and Motion have radically different approaches to AE, so therefore AE is still pretty entrenched. The price isn’t going to be a determining factor. Same reason Flame continues to exist.”

Are you suggestion YouTube bloggers should invest in a Flame system?

I have already stated for a post production house $49.99 is not expensive. I posted that in plain English.

In fact I stated for the average blogger $49.99 is expensive.

I doubt the average blogger needs AE while on the other hand Motion and FCPX can offer a lot for the price. If you can respond with a counter argument why the average blogger with no clients in the year 2017 needs the CC over DR or FCPX I would love to hear your reasons. To say $49.99 is not to expensive for a post production house is a non issues and no one that I can recall has ever made that argument that $49.99 is to expensive for a post production house. What I am stating is Adobe wants to cater exclusively to the higher end editors like Avid once did. However in the year 2017 there a millions of dollars to be made from video bloggers who want a little more than what iMovie has to offer. Adobe has decide those customers can use DR, FCPX, Vegas Video or Pinnacle Studio. That is the point I am making and that is what you must address.

[Oliver Peters] “[andy patterson] “Will BMD have a photo/graphic arts program at NAB 2018 for $99.99? Who knows? ”

Serif Affinity and Pixelmator have been out for a while. Both groups are excellent products and legitimate rivals to Photoshop and Illustrator. Yet they don’t really seem to be much of a challenge to Adobe.”

My point is BMD design sees the value in software. If BMD can create a graphic/photo program that integrates with DR then that would be much better than using Serif Affinity or Pixelmator. You must think about the bigger picture. Adobe has great integration with other Adobe Programs. That kind of ecosystem is hard to top but BMD could do the same thing.

[Andrew Kimery]

[andy patterson] “Why pay $49.99 for CC if the competition can make a better offer? What if BMD offers fusion and DR for $199.99 at NAB 2018? I doubt that will happen but who knows for sure? FCPX is only $299.99 and Motion is only $50.00. The competition in the world of NLE is lowering prices. “

Maybe BMD does all that but DR adaption as an NLE remains relatively small because most people are happy with their current NLE and don’t see a compelling reason to switch? If Adobe’s numbers start leveling off (due to competition or just market saturation) and thinks a price drop is needed my guess, like we’ve talked about before, is that they’ll probably release CS-like bundles for a bit less than the Master Collection that they offer now.

Though for the last 5yrs the points have been free DR, $299 FCP X, $49.99 CC, and $999-$1299 MC (or $49.99 for a 12/mo subscription), yet Adobe is hitting their subscriber numbers and their stock is amaze-balls. I fail to understand why the price gap is a such a problem now when it hasn’t changed over the last half decade. Even if Adobe cuts it’s CC price in half it’s still going to be more expensive than free DR from day one and more expensive than FCP X and paid DR as soon as year two of the subscription rolls around.

I think blindly chasing falling prices will topple Adobe the same way it toppled many PC manufactures that chased Dell in its race-to-the-bottom pricing (with Dell itself ultimately bottoming out too). Adobe has to focus on selling value, not price, because they will always lose a price war to companies like Apple and BMD. If people find sufficient value in a product then they will pay for it even if it costs more than the competition. Maybe in a few years people will get tired of the recurring payments (which is a greater problem for Adobe than prices), or maybe the payments will fade into the background just like our phone bills, ISP bills, insurance bills, Netflix subscription, etc.,… It just becomes another cost lost in a seas of costs.

[andy patterson] “…web blogger it is. Not everyone has clients in the year 2017. Some do it as a hobby. “

Someone vlogging as hobby isn’t going to spend $1800 on the Production Premium CS. Even if Adobe cut its CS prices in half it would still be way more expensive than free DR and $299 FCP X (especially when you factor in Adobe charging for annual upgrades where as Apple and BMD do not).

You keep contrasting poor vloggers to post houses even though the industry is much more diverse than that. Every week I see job ads posted on Staff Me Up, Film and TV Pro, Media Match, various FB groups, Craigslist, etc., from small and medium sized businesses across the US looking for editors that know Premiere Pro. Corporate, news, ad/marketing, web/digital, low budget indies, docs, etc.,.. Over the past few years I’ve seen nothing but growing demand for Premiere users across the spectrum.

[Andy Patterson]

[Andrew Kimery] “Though for the last 5yrs the points have been free DR, $299 FCP X, $49.99 CC, and $999-$1299 MC (or $49.99 for a 12/mo subscription), yet Adobe is hitting their subscriber numbers and their stock is amaze-balls”

I was not interested in DR five years ago. If you watch the video other people mention DR 14 is a game changer and the price for the paid version has dropped. You forgot to mention that. I think it was dropped to compete with FCPX but who knows for sure? Also Adobe can loose video editors and sill make money from graphic design artist.

[Andrew Kimery] “Even if Adobe cuts it’s CC price in half it’s still going to be more expensive than free DR from day one and more expensive than FCP X and paid DR as soon as year two of the subscription rolls around.”

It does not have to be free just affordable to the average web blogger. Having said that Premiere Pro does have to start making good updates again. DR 14 looks good and as other haves stated the price is right.

[Andrew Kimery] ”
I think blindly chasing falling prices will topple Adobe the same way it toppled many PC manufactures that chased Dell in its race-to-the-bottom pricing (with Dell itself ultimately bottoming out too). Adobe has to focus on selling value, not price, because they will always lose a price war to companies like Apple and BMD. If people find sufficient value in a product then they will pay for it even if it costs more than the competition. Maybe in a few years people will get tired of the recurring payments (which is a greater problem for Adobe than prices), or maybe the payments will fade into the background just like our phone bills, ISP bills, insurance bills, Netflix subscription, etc.,… It just becomes another cost lost in a seas of costs.”

Adobe updates since the CC have been mediocre. I would agree that Adobe should focus on creating a good product but they still have bugs form over a year ago. Adobe is not offering a superior product anymore over the competition.

[Andrew Kimery] “Someone vlogging as hobby isn’t going to spend $1800 on the Production Premium CS. Even if Adobe cut its CS prices in half it would still be way more expensive than free DR and $299 FCP X (especially when you factor in Adobe charging for annual upgrades where as Apple and BMD do not).”

You are totally proving my point. I never stated a blogger would spend $1800.00 on the CS Production Premium. What I stated is that for the web blogger wanting a little more than what iMovie offers Adobe has opted not to compete with BMD or FCPX.

[Andrew Kimery] “You keep contrasting poor vloggers to post houses even though the industry is much more diverse than that.”

I do not keep contrasting them at all. I am saying that in 2017 there is a market for hobbyist unlike in the year 2002. I never stated there are only YouTubers and post production house. Never did I make that statement.

[Andrew Kimery] “Every week I see job ads posted on Staff Me Up, Film and TV Pro, Media Match, various FB groups, Craigslist, etc., from small and medium sized businesses across the US looking for editors that know Premiere Pro. Corporate, news, ad/marketing, web/digital, low budget indies, docs, etc.,.. Over the past few years I’ve seen nothing but growing demand for Premiere users across the spectrum.”

I never said otherwise but you have to learn to comprehend that DR 14 is still in beta. Where will DR be in another two years? I am on a PC and never gave DR a second look until now. I never thought about FCPX but I now have a Mac and a PC and all I can say is competition is good.