-
**Danger Will Robinson** **Danger Will Robinson**
-
[Tim Kolb] “What better way to carry on a symbiotic relationship than to have a company need to earn your business every month?”
[Aindreas Gallagher] “But Tim – isn’t it the exact opppsite? they have me on a subscription hook – if i want to keep cutting, i pay them every month no matter if the update amounts to group folder colour icons. With perp.license upgrades, with a mature product – they’ve got to sell you that they are advancing and so should you.”
Two ways of looking at this.
With current CS6 perpetual licenses, Production Premium costs $1900 and Master Collection costs $2600.
At $50/mo, Adobe has to keep you on subscription for 3 years and 3 months before they earn a single Production Premium license’s worth of revenue. If you compare to Master Collection, it’s 4 years and 4 months. That doesn’t even include the perpetual license upgrades you would probably buy during that time.
I think you’re forgetting that Adobe needs customers as much as the customers need their products. Two sides of the same coin. If they displease too many customers and they drop off subscription, Adobe will have a problem.
[Aindreas Gallagher] “Two years into CC – with all the cleint project material built up, you’re going to keep paying regardless -you have to – just to access all the assets you’ve built up to that point.”
Premiere Pro has EDL, AAF and XML output for interchange. We have the same escape hatches we had with FCP7.
[Aindreas Gallagher] “But saying that adobe getting us all on a hire purchase subscription hook is going to fundamentally motivate them to over perform on upgrades – when that entire motivator would be gone – strikes me as a wee bit of a non-sequitur.”
I’m not so sure. Autodesk, Apple, Avid and The Foundry already have some of my money. There is external motivation for Adobe to do what’s necessary to keep me as a customer.
I have faith that markets generally work and that competition will sort this out.
Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog – What I’m thinking when my workstation’s thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events -
So it seems that you know something about adobes plan that we dont?
Richard
-
[walter biscardi] “Ok, so I’m assuming all of you have ZERO monthly subscription payments right now. No telephones, no internet, no cable TV, no DirecTV, no netflix, nothing at all that requires you to pay a monthly subscription so the idea of paying a monthly subscription for software is 100% out of line for Adobe.”
Agreed 100%. I see software as a cost of doing business, so I don’t see a new licensing model as the existential threat that so many here do. I think it’s the change more than the practical reality that has everyone so scared.
I posted this yesterday on the sister thread [link] on FCPX or Not:
I’m kind of indifferent. I’ve been using a Cloud license for the last year, and it’s been fine. It’s always just worked, I use the Cloud-only Illustrator “collect files” feature often, and I’ve been able to move my license freely across Macs and PCs. Now I do still have the security blanket of a few perpetual licenses here, too, so maybe that colors my perception, but I may ultimately replace those with pay-as-you-go to save money when I’m not using them.
Realistically, I can’t skip an upgrade. I have to stay up-to-date in order to play nicely with others. Whether I pay a big chunk every year for an upgrade or 12 little chunks every month for subscriptions, I’m still paying and there’s no end in sight.
I pay rent for my office space every month. I pay my power and utility bills. I pay my Internet provider. I pay my phone bills. I pay my web host. I pay Google Apps for Business. I pay Dropbox. I pay Vimeo. I pay FedEx.
There are actually very few things I need to run my business that I can truly own or control. A perpetual software license will do me no good if my power goes out, or my Internet goes down, or bad weather delays FedEx and I can’t deliver my work.
If paying Adobe monthly for a service instead of yearly for a product gets me better software, maybe I can get ok with that, too.
I hope Creative Cloud won’t be the only licensing option, but practically speaking, I could run my business on it.
Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog – What I’m thinking when my workstation’s thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events -
this is a lot of head wagging over nothing. Whatever Adobe decides to do in this regard, no one is holding a gun to your head to make you buy in. There are, some would say, better options like Nuke & Eyeon out there. If you are not happy with the direction Adobe is taking, show it with your wallet and use a different product. There is no winning through whining
-
Mixed feelings on this.
Two years ago, we upgraded from CS3 to CS5.5. The Production Premium Suite cost $1032.99. For the same time period, on a $29.99 per month subscription basis, the cost would have been $719.76.Also, I would have automatically (and with no increased cost) be upgraded CS6, so I would be using that right now instead of 5.5. Better products for less money = GOOD
But, if the subscription model is the only option, and we chose to not use Adobe, we would lose access to any project files. Not having control over your own projects = BAD .
I guess in theory, you could have xml or EDL options for accessing old projects, or you could buy a short term Cloud subscription for $30 if you needed it for one time use. But those options don’t make me feel too safe about a subscription-only service.
I will be at the Adobe Max conference in two weeks and I will be asking questions about this.
John Young
Surrounding Media
Follow on Twitter -
[Richard Cardonna] “So it seems that you know something about adobes plan that we dont?”
No, it’s rather obvious when you look at the business model. How do you smooth out the cycle of income so it doesn’t spike at one point each year? Subscription so the money is constant all year long. Just like us running our business and trying to keep steady work all year long rather than trying to make the entire year work off of one or two very busy months.
Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative MediaFoul Water Fiery Serpent, an original documentary featuring Sigourney Weaver. US & European distribution by American Public Television
MTWD Entertainment – Developing original content for all media.
“This American Land” – our new PBS Series.
“Science Nation” – Three years and counting of Science for the People. -
[John Young] “But, if the subscription model is the only option, and we chose to not use Adobe, we would lose access to any project files. Not having control over your own projects = BAD .”
You mean like when Apple dropped FCP 7 to X and we could no longer access our project files if we moved forward? Apple never did address this, took a third party to do that.
[John Young] “I guess in theory, you could have xml or EDL options for accessing old projects, or you could buy a short term Cloud subscription for $30 if you needed it for one time use. But those options don’t make me feel too safe about a subscription-only service.”
Exporting XMLs of our FCP projects is precisely what we are doing now. We have FCP 7 on several of our systems “frozen” on Snow Leopard drives. Slowly, but surely, we are exporting those projects as XMLs for use later if needed.
And like you just said in your own post, you can literally pay $30 for one month of service to access and export your project and then let the subscription lapse.
Walter Biscardi, Jr.
Editor, Colorist, Director, Writer, Consultant, Author, Chef.
HD Post and Production
Biscardi Creative MediaFoul Water Fiery Serpent, an original documentary featuring Sigourney Weaver. US & European distribution by American Public Television
MTWD Entertainment – Developing original content for all media.
“This American Land” – our new PBS Series.
“Science Nation” – Three years and counting of Science for the People. -
[walter biscardi] “And like you just said in your own post, you can literally pay $30 for one month of service to access and export your project and then let the subscription lapse.”
My point was that it is doable but it is far from ideal. Right now I can pay $0 to access old Sony Vegas projects (the software we used before switching to PP). For a small company like us, if you have to access old projects 4 or 5 times throughout the year, that becomes an issue. You are talking about paying a yearly expense of $150 just to access your own files.
[walter biscardi] “You mean like when Apple dropped FCP 7 to X and we could no longer access our project files if we moved forward? Apple never did address this, took a third party to do that.”
Exactly, for me that was kind of a dealbreaker for FCPX. So I am looking at the subscription service the same way. And I doubt there will be third party options for a lapse Creative Cloud membership.
All this being said, I have a good amount of confidence in Adobe’s relationship with the professional community and their ability to listen to our concerns and take those into account.
John Young
Surrounding Media
Follow on Twitter -
[walter biscardi] ” you can literally pay $30 for one month of service to access and export your project and then let the subscription lapse.”
Or, for a single application, pay as little as $19 for the month.
I can’t figure out how NOT to make this work out. I’ve tended to upgrade every 2-3 years. We bought Design Premium for $1899 (yes, we buy our gear here at the COW), and paid $599 to upgrade. That’s $2500 for 3 years, working out to $830-ish/yr. Or $49/month for $600/yr, and $1800 for 3 years. We’re ahead $600, enough to buy another seat AND stay current.
My wife also had a gig where she needed the new Illustrator, paid $29 for a one-time only use, and was done.
To me, this is Adobe listening. Don’t need every app every day? Don’t pay for ’em. Need to budget predictable costs? Do it. Need to work everywhere? Do it.
Comparisons to Apple are nonsense. This business was never more than a drop in the bucket to Apple over the past dozen years. (Please don’t tell me that it helped Apple sell hardware. There’s no more demonstrably false and utterly ridiculous thing said in the COW during the entire past 2 years.)
Adobe though, THIS IS ALL THEY HAVE. If they screw up the software business, they’re done. Gone forever. This is IT.
They’re not the stupidest company in the industry. They’re one of the top 2 or 3 smartest. I’m gobsmacked that anybody would think they overnight stopped thinking about the best way to serve their customers, when there’s been not one thing in nearly 30 years to make it seem like they’re not zeroed in.
Other than my mention of business purchasing, I’m speaking for myself of course. I’ll keep reading of course. I do, even when I’m not posting, but I’ve yet to see an even tiny bit of credible indication that the wheels are falling off the wagon.
And for the record, I enjoyed the heck out of the yelling about FCPX. Still do. Some of the most fun I’ve had in 18 years of being in this forum, and in many cases, among the best insights into the industry that anybody on the web has ever articulated.
This though, this is driving me insane. I don’t need any help with that. LOL
-
There are many ways that Adobe can increase its income without doing away wjth the perpetual lic.
They can make upgrading available only from a previous version. Any prior version can also upgrade but for a higher cost say the cost of a yearly cloud subscription or higher depending on the version.As many have said before. perpetual lic. is part of business model as is the subscription. They can also introduce a mothly or yearly maintenace subscription as a prepay for upgrades.
Subscription is a good way to start using the apps both for those transitioning from other apps and that ar starting out. if you are a multi seat facility it can be a great money saver. But these are not the cases for many of is and I frankly hope that Adobe takes both business models as clients and not abandon many if not most of us.
Richard
Reply to this Discussion! Login or Sign Up