Not sure if this is the thread you referenced below, Walter. But here’s my take anyway.
I think Adobe’s announcement is a little bit their version of the Apple X announcement just 18 months later. Actually, about 5+ years later (for reasons I’ll mumble about below)
Adobe now says they have to change because the “industry is changing” – which is “duh” worthy for everybody.
But still true.
Apple clearly saw the changing nature of the industry and the fact that the old processes (which traditional NLE software was built around) were going to NEED to change.
I just think Apple saw how MUCH change would be needed, and they saw it earlier. About 5 years earlier. I think that jump was driven by internal Apple understanding of two factors. The continual increase in computing power in smaller and smaller and more affordable packages (where they were a domnant player). And the continual rise of the connected world with everyone who has access to first world technology accepting the need to continue to base both their work, social and personal lives around connected tools. (Apple never really missed the internet like, say MS) And while Adobe didn’t either, their core products (Type, Photoshop, AE, etc while benefiting from connectivity don’t really depend on them like the general computing game Apple and MS have always needed to play)
We can’t know for sure, but it’s likely Randy U and the team vetted some of the basic concept code on would would become FCP-X in the iMovie 08 update in the summer of 2007. Particularly range selection. Yeah, thats probably part of what caused some of the “iMovie Pro” mess, but without real world test opportunities, how does one actually re-invent stuff that masses of people are likely to need to rely on?
If that’s accurate, then they were stockpiling both concepts and perhaps even code nearly six years ago.
In parallel, you have the OS-X transition happening. And Moores Law continuing apace.
OSX was years settling in place and seeing the jettsoning of QT and the rise of the Core Services and AV Foundation packages.
So X was being imagined in a stew of change.
But I thinking literally ALL of this was a reflection of Apple (and likely SJ at the time) being able to imagine the huge changes coming.
Adobe also at least somewhat “re-imagined” their NLE – but always with an eye towards keeping the same primary A/B roll on a horizontal timeline with discrete clips tied to absolute time – concepts. And never really re-imagined many of the fundamentals of the software – but worked VERY hard to make it modern and to take advantage of the new horsepower and new GPU power that was coming on line for Pro Class general computing. Why? Because their core competency isn’t general computing, it’s software. Excellent software, but pertty much software built around the design and graphics industries. They are NOT a hardware company at all.
I’m ignorant of their product lines, and I could be way off base, but I remember people calling revs of Premier, PShop, After Effects, etc. “GREAT” And FAST and have COOL NEW FEATURES but I never remember anyone ever describing any of the work as “Game Changing.” Again that might be my ignorance. But it’s what I recall as an interested outside listener.
So fast forward to today.
What I heard this week is that Adobe thinks the entire game is changing and so it’s time for new ways of doing things. It’s time to break from the past. Re-invent the industry and workflows and how things get done. Their PR effort is wrapping that in “collaboration” – but I’m a bit confused by that. I can see where their products are ripe for “approval loop collaboration” since they’re used in so many creative shops where oversight and approvals are critical. But I’m not sure I see the typical Adobe Photoshop or Lightroom or After Effects user needing the actual production work to be collaborative. It seems to me that from the design of an ad to photo retouching and beyond, these are pretty much expressions of individual creative will. Not so much team sports.
Video editing is different at a large production level. It can be very much a team sport. Often the person working on the video of Project A is different from the person responsible for the audio, so too the color grading and the promo edits and a bunch of other things.
So I’m curious about what parts of the “creative workflow” Adobe envisions migrating to the cloud? With “stream size creep” firmly happening and 4k and 8k on the horizon, collaborative work with FOOTAGE – which is what could help a video type – seems a bit suspect. So Proxies in the cloud shared between editors? Maybe. But if so, then my worry would be if they enable video resources to live in the cloud, then theres absolutely nothing to stop a footage owner from hiring and firing editors at will – since the progress is baked into the cloud version. If Bob the editors gets pissy, just call June and give her the corporate codes to “cloud project” so she can dive in and pick up right where Bob left off – a concept that troubles me since it makes the editor even more a “temp player” rather than a core employee. And that seems a bit scary.
If the “cloud” target is just versioning and approvals – then it’s all just Metadata – and I think Apple has a nice head start since they have their own cloud (iCloud) a sweet metadata friendly NLE (X) and a history of making their bank off solving problems with hardware/software combinations rather than exclusively software licensing models.
After all, they shut down their only real “license” model – iWeb quite a while back. And they appear to be more comfortable with a business model where they encourage demand purchases driven by innovation, rather than contractual billing like the electric company.
Apple is strong. Adobe is strong. But they are two VERY different companies. Apple has always been about innovation and creating hardware and software in the same place to work in harmony.
Adobe has actually ALWAYS been about licensing if you think about it. John Warnock and Charles Geschke originally built the company on the idea of licensing PostScript to printer manufacturers.
So they’re kinda just working back towards their roots here, and I think Apple continues to do pretty much the same.
So far, Apple has been comparatively much stronger at the long game. We’ll see in this iteration.
Those are my initial thoughts, anyway.
FWIW.
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