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Bob Zelin is right…..The End Is Near!
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[Andrew Kimery] “Previously discussed”
Um, yeah… so? I’m aware that the “pro” crowd stands in disgusted disbelief, yes. 😀 The whole point is that it’s being done, and not just by eight year olds and it’s very much “commercially viable”. Whether someone has their technical gripes with it or not. Or would an Alexa et al somehow have changed any of it to the point of any true relevance? Or are maybe just the Alexa owners miffed that they’re not getting a job, since hey, they’re technically so much better? As if, somehow, that’s the only thing that counted?
Horses for courses.
– RK
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you have brought up an excellent analogy with the band stuff. So today, unless you are a “star” or
have corporate contracts to play convention jobs (or are in the small circle of NY/LA Studio musicians), you are not going to make a living. And it only gets worse, as “great sounds” are now available when you plug your guitar/keyboard into an iMac with a plug in that makes your instrument sound like it’s going thru a big Marshall Amp or heavy Hammond Organ. Not the real thing ? Most people don’t care – it’s good enough (just like the cheap cameras or iPhone today).SO – this happened to the Print industry. There are still print houses out there, but only the very super hi end. Everyone else prints themselves -because it is good enough.
Same applies to photography. How many still photographers can make a living, compared to just before Canon released the 5D, and started the downward spiral.
Same with audio recording. How many recording studios are there, that can survive ? While audio for post houses thrive in LA, most of the music recording studios are gone – because you can do it at home, not only with a toy, but a small pro tools system that costs almost nothing (not to mention Cake Walk, etc, etc).
So while Skywalker Sound is still in business, most can’t make a living doing this.And we are next. The next George Lucas won’t point his iPhone at actors to make a feature film. But most of “our work” on this forum is from corporate events, corporate training, web videos, presentation videos, low budget documentaries, and a handful of TV shows and commercials. The “big” jobs will continue to use the expensive gear (and the expensive personnel), but the vast majority of people doing this for a living, will not be able to survive 15 years from now, because “everyone” can edit, “everyone” can shoot, because “everyone” has their own YouTube Channel – after all, it was a required course in High School, and now “everyone” can do it (and the iPhone, or GoPro, or whatever is out 10 – 15 years from now) – will be REAL GOOD !
You are a writer, with a pen and paper ? Try getting into a network to write a comedy or drama, and make a living with it. Try to get funding for your great script for that fantastic feature you just wrote. Good luck.
bob Zelin
Bob Zelin
Rescue 1, Inc.
bobzelin@icloud.com -
With due respect, I think you are all wrong, the bottom is dropping out in the low and mid range. The problem is that the democratization of technology inevitably results in clients accepting lower quality to get it low cost or even free. And we are all guilty. Remember production up the 2000’s? How many of you are are booking audio sweetening or color correction facilities? Or hiring a writer? Or a transcriber? Or an on-set still photographer? Or a lighting truck for even the small projects? Been hiring that steadycam guy recently? We dumped the expensive outsiders to do it ourselves with generic tools because its cheaper. Our clients are going to do it to us.
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[keith mann] “With due respect, I think you are all wrong, the bottom is dropping out in the low and mid range. The problem is that the democratization of technology inevitably results in clients accepting lower quality to get it low cost or even free. And we are all guilty. Remember production up the 2000’s? How many of you are are booking audio sweetening or color correction facilities? Or hiring a writer? Or a transcriber? Or an on-set still photographer? Or a lighting truck for even the small projects? Been hiring that steadycam guy recently? We dumped the expensive outsiders to do it ourselves with generic tools because its cheaper. Our clients are going to do it to us.
“Every spot i work on gets a dedicated audio guy, a dedicated GFX team, dedicated colorist if the higher ups deem what I did in the Avid can be better, and a dedicated writer/producer attached to the spot.
People still pay money for quality and they always will.
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[Neil Goodman] “Every spot i work on gets a dedicated audio guy, a dedicated GFX team, dedicated colorist if the higher ups deem what I did in the Avid can be better, and a dedicated writer/producer attached to the spot.”
Agreed. The difference from the “2000’s” or 1990’s is that we have more tools at our fingertips where we can do some color correction, grfx or even audio sweetening if need be. And that’s on my laptop, not paying $400/hr for a big linear suite. I think we heard the same thing 15 years ago: “now some college kid can do what we can for half the price.” The trick is to just be better. People will still hire talent. “Good, fast, cheap: pick two”
“Democratization” will weed out less talented folks and replace them with more talented folks, no matter what the work…even if that means it’s some college kid who is more talented. I think most viewers understand what a quality product is. Just my humble opinion.
Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter -
[Neil Goodman] “People still pay money for quality and they always will.”
Just like the US economy, there will always be 1% who can afford anything they want, but you’re kidding yourself if you think this business offers a “good” career opportunity for more than a relative handful of those with filmmaking aspirations.
If any of you disagree with me, I’ll be happy to bet any of you here that ten years from now you will not be making a living in the business of post-production. While I might lose a few bets, and will be happy to pay to anyone who enjoys success, I will make money, because the vast majority will NOT be able to sustain a career. Any takers?
David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist & Workflow Consultant
David Weiss Productions
Los AngelesDavid is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.
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I would take that bet, just as I would have taken that bet 15 years ago when folks said the same things. But, in 10 years, I hope to be looking at retirement.
Scott Witthaus
Senior Editor/Post Production Supervisor
1708 Inc./Editorial
Professor, VCU Brandcenter -
Scott, if ten others were willing to take the same bet I’d be happy to give you a chance, and I’d be happy to pay you off in ten years if you win, because I’d win from eight or nine others here for every one who’d win. And, just for the record, it’s not the veterans here I worry about, it’s the young guys here who think democratization has given them a better or improved chance at a long term “sustainable” career in this industry. Where we call it democratization, Uberization, or Walmartization of this industry, it has opened the business to more, and more videos ARE being made, but the majority of people making those videos are less and less likely to be making a living making a living making those videos, thus making the biz unsustainable for most.
David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist & Workflow Consultant
David Weiss Productions
Los AngelesDavid is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.
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[David Roth Weiss] “I’ll be happy to bet any of you here that ten years from now you will not be making a living in the business of post-production. “
Do you think television is going to disappear in ten years? 20 years? I dont. I havent seen any sort of down trend in the field of work I do.
Sure – there are less editors employed here than there were 7 years ago when I started the gig, but not by many and positions that were eliminated were filled by freelancers who make more per hour than I do.
I see job offers every day and new vendors and agencies are sprouting up like weeds. All doing high end work.
Speaking to that – the stuff is looking more hi end and expensive than ever.
I may be in a little bubble out here, but I dont see that bubble bursting anytime soon.
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[David Roth Weiss] “hat ten years from now you will not be making a living in the business of post-production.”
10 years from now is a way off the way this tech is evolving. There is more professional productions than ever before. Look at all the producers going into streaming videos into people’s homes. It used to be 3 networks and a couple of local channels. Then when cable hit, HBO and the like were added. Now a lot of new productions from Netflix Hulo etc.
As far as the middle and low end … things have changed to generalists that can do production. Specialists in post are limited to well budgeted productions. Yes. But there a lot of free lancers making a living as video producers.
I remember several years ago I was at an event and got into a conversation with a news videographer using a high end Sony camcorder. He took out the cartridge to load it into a laptop so he could edit it and send it to the station. He told me that he used to do just camera operation. Now he says I have to produce it, shoot it, edit it and even do my own sound. Other than talent, a one man band. But he still made a living at it.
Lots of wedding video people are one man bands. Sports events music head shot artists etc. They have to do more but can make a living. And lets see where net neutrality brings us as people can make a living producing their own series or movies. It hasn’t taken off quite yet but the technology is there. Distribution is available to all. Getting people to pay for it is the challenge. If a model for this can take hold then mini production companies can take hold and hiring a post pro would be a good person to be a full time member. though i can also see directors editing their own stuff.
Mac Pro, macbook pro, Imacs (i7); Canon 5D Mark III/70D, Panasonic AG-HPX170/AG-HPX250P, Canon HV40, Sony Z7U/VX2000/PD170; FCP 6 certified; FCP X write professionally for a variety of media; teach video production in L.A.
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