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Before you get too comfy in your switch . . . .
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[Bill Davis] “Will be very interesting if someday, I can create my special interest video in FCP X v3, drop it to iCloud – and anyone with an Apple branded TV, an iPad or suitable box can access it via iTunes WITH the capability to drive pay per use revenue to my PayPal account.”
Until high speed internet reaches all of America, you’ll only have access to about 40% of the market. There is no foreseeable future where broadband will reach the penetration levels of television, which is in the high 90’s.
Scott Sheriff
Director
https://www.sstdigitalmedia.com“If you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur.” —Red Adair
Where were you on 6/21?
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[Herb Sevush] “Correct again. And since that model will still be dominating the broadcast and film industries for at least the next 2 years, any product that doesn’t take that into account is by the definition of this small slice, not “pro.” Whether you can make money with it or not.”
I’d say your two year timeframe is conservative at best. Five is more likely, and ten wouldn’t be unthinkable by any stretch of the imagination.
Scott Sheriff
Director
https://www.sstdigitalmedia.com“If you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur.” —Red Adair
Where were you on 6/21?
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[Craig Seeman] “Not if Apple has leverage. Apple’s a business. They probably don’t care who is aghast if they have leverage over decisions that might be made to their benefit.”
We’ve seen how Apple behave when they feel they dominate. I’ve always felt the one thing that has protected users is they do not have majority market share.
Apart from short term questions of usability, many users should also consider the long view, and ask themselves: “Should I buy into their plans for world domination”?
If your suggestions of their long term strategy are correct, you would be entrusting your future to people who make good business decisions but poor ethical ones, or at least ones that do not consider your interests.
Your theory may not be wrong, but it gives me more reasons to question my Apple usage. Not fewer.
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“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”
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[David Roth Weiss] “I keep hearing this Craig from everyone except Apple. Honestly, if it were any company in the world except Apple I doubt anyone would still be even remotely interested at this point without a clear message and path.”
And even then, it appears that there’s many loosing interest in apple faster than they can get something workable out the door.
Scott Sheriff
Director
https://www.sstdigitalmedia.com“If you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur.” —Red Adair
Where were you on 6/21?
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[Gary Pollard] “For those who have made the decision to be half way out the door, neither of these is likely to make them feel better about that person.”
Very true but sometimes power wins over nice. The relationship Apple has with Adobe over Flash plays out as hostile and yet Adobe hasn’t abandoned the Mac over it.
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[Gary Pollard] “Your theory may not be wrong, but it gives me more reasons to question my Apple usage. Not fewer.”
I have no intention to paint a rosy picture. I’m just connect some dots and they can certainly be connected in other ways.
It’s not just Mac and Windows either.
It’s HP saying no to Thunderbolt
It’s Sony saying yes to Thunderbolt but with a USB connector rather than miniDisplay.
How will Intel play this if at all going forward.
We’re also seeing nVidia CUDA vs OpenCL.
There’s going to be some fierce competition over some media technologies that underly NLEs, I think too. I can’t help but think media server development is going to play into this at some point.Of course sometimes the end user benefits from competition. Sometimes it can make things more complex and costly. I have no idea which way it will go and in what combination of good or bad for “us.”
Apple is a business and as they’ve grown they actually been playing “harder” hard ball then they ever have before. On the other hand I don’t hate my iPhone or iPad because of it. I just recognize that they’re part of Apple’s ecosystem. Certainly Google’s part of that battle also coming from another angle. Who knows if they have something up their sleeves with WebM and web video distribution vs the ubiquitous H.264. Throw in Apple vs Adobe on Flash and even the “indirect” stuff will splatter on us.
I don’t have any less trust in Apple than in any other company though.
Move to Windows, trust Microsoft?
Avid announcing the end of Mac support and then backpedaling?
Adobe ending Mac support for a time when they rewrote Premiere?
Autodesk ending Edit*, Combustion, Cleaner?
Remember Matrox’s first round of FCP support and ending that?
I’m sure there’s a slew of other companies I’m overlooking. Some really raise people’s dander and yet short of folding, they tend to come back even if it takes a few years. -
[Scott Sheriff] “And even then, it appears that there’s many loosing interest in apple faster than they can get something workable out the door.”
But sometimes interest is won by force not by pleasantry.
You’d also be surprised how short people”s memories are when they being to look at other factors.
There’s a slew of companies the P.O’d people in the Post industry and had significant comebacks. Avid is one of them for example. People still buy Autodesk Flames despite what they did with Edit* and Combustion and Cleaner.A lot of people are speaking out of anger and while the impact can be long lasting it can just as easily not be depending on what happens down the road. My own opinion is that Apple did think this through.
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[Craig Seeman] “Apple is a business and as they’ve grown they actually been playing “harder” hard ball then they ever have before.
Hardball with competitors is fine. But hardball with customers who have built their working life on your product is a different issue. And I think Apple have ALWAYS played hardball whenever they felt they could. As I said, only the dip in market share modified that behaviour for a while. But only for a while.
[Craig Seeman] On the other hand I don’t hate my iPhone or iPad because of it.
Me neither. But while they are nice to have, they are not central to my experience of my computing or my career. I can change my phone, or drop my iPad tomorrow (I’d miss two apps on my iPad but that’s about it).
[Craig Seeman] Move to Windows, trust Microsoft?
I don’t trust anyone 100%. That’s why I use two systems. That’s why I save my docs in RTF format in case I decide to wave goodbye to Office. (I held on to Word Perfect a long time before throwing in the towel).
But, Microsoft and PCs are not one. And because it’s a more open framework, and despite having had dominant market share for so long, I don’t think they have ever been as ruthless about killing the competition, or controlling users, or simply saying “fudge you” to users. Even if they wanted to be, it’s tougher for them to do so.
You buy into the benefits of a closed system at a price. As many are now discovering.
The fact that my Apple products don’t play nice with Flash, suits Steve Jobs’ ego, but it does nothing for me as a web user. I have to find third party workarounds. I don’t believe one software provider should be in the business of trying to destroy another.
[Craig Seeman] Adobe ending Mac support for a time when they rewrote Premiere? Autodesk ending Edit*, Combustion, Cleaner?”
Unfortunately, it seems that as a software developer you are always in a weak bargaining position with Apple unless you do it this way.
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“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”
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[Craig Seeman] “The relationship Apple has with Adobe over Flash plays out as hostile and yet Adobe hasn’t abandoned the Mac over it.”
I’m still curious as to why some Adobe products have less functionality on the Mac. Fewer transitions in Premiere Pro, and the inability to import from Elements (when you can on Windows) being two examples.
Adobe and Apple clearly still have a pretty touchy relationship. People are going to have to decide, particularly in the light of recent developments, who has their best interests at heart.
I’ve defended FCP X here, but I simply can’t bring myself to throw all my eggs into the Apple basket.
For example, now I have the choice of getting Adobe Production Suite for Apple or Windows. Although I have Premiere alone on the Mac, it still plays nicer with Windows, and my long term views of how Apple regards me as a user is also going to have to be a factor. I think it’s the same for many here.
As I said, your idea of where Apple is going may be wrong or right, but if right, it’s as much a reason to leave as to stay.
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“Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it”
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[Gary Pollard] “Hardball with competitors is fine. But hardball with customers who have built their working life on your product is a different issue.”
See Autodesk.
You think Avid was “nice” when they announced they were dropping Mac support?
[Gary Pollard] “Unfortunately, it seems that as a software developer you are always in a weak bargaining position with Apple unless you do it this way.”
Certainly being nice is good but for a business winning is even better. Nice is just one means to a win but some companies (not just Apple) jettison that for other strategies and tactics.
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