Your advice seems to make sense at least too me. My understanding is that PP compiles the effects into CUDA code for the GPU.
Ive had similar problems. If i put a clip with a problem fx at the beginning i get the compile error thing right away when i attempt to render a preview. If i move the same problem clip later in the timeline, it takes longer for PP to eventually hit that new thing, “compile” and fall over.
Ive found adding an adjustment layer with “wave warp” at 1920x1080p nearly always causes a compile error. Turning off Mercury acceleration and going back to s/w makes no difference. This last bit of course means my pressumptions about compiling for the GPU, and above should be all wrong.