Marcus Moore
Forum Replies Created
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That’s true, Franz. And I hope it’s not a trend we see continue.
Though I do have two pet theories in that regard. First, I think Retina support in 10.0.5 to coincide with the rMBPs was probably “sprung” on the dev team, and set back whatever other feature update plans they had for that year. As for 10.1, Apple wanted to release it in conjunction with the new MacPro, no matter what. So I think it was another case of Apple’s hardware plans mucking with X release dates. Looking at how early guys like Ripple Training seemingly had 10.1 in their hands, it could have been release ready as early as October.
But this is all Kremlinology of the highest order.
Hopefully a feature update in the next month with reset the clock on the lengthening trend between feature releases.
If Apple released 10.1.2 today, it would be 131 days since the last feature update.
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While I’m all for 2 of the 3, I REALLY hope I never have to go back to conventional tracks. My personal experience is the couple times I’ve had to jump back to 7 have been plain painful.
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While the editorial improvements in Resolve 11 are impressive, I think we’re still a generation or two away from it being competitive with the big 3. At least that my impression from reports. What they’ve done is great- it just has a ways to go.
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See my post below- the LONGEST duration between updates has been 148 days. So at most that would be just over another month from now. But that was also 10.1, which I’m pretty sure was sitting around waiting for the MacPro to be ready. So I’m betting the next update won’t be nearly that far away.
Some have suggested the update is waiting for 10.9.3 to be released, but I’m not sure why that would be.
I’m also betting it will be a feature update, and not just bug fixes.
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Yup. Apple has stated publicly since 10.1 was released that their goal for updates is 3-4 months. 10.1.1 dropped just over 100 days ago.
Here’s the little chart I keep in my notes-
10.0.0 – 2011.06.21 Tuesday
10.0.1 – 2011.09.20 91 DAYS Tuesday
10.0.2 – 2011.11.16 57 DAYS Wednesday
10.0.3 – 2012.01.31 76 DAYS Tuesday
10.0.4 – 2012.04.10 70 DAYS Tuesday
10.0.5 – 2012.06.11 62 DAYS Monday
10.0.6 – 2012.10.23 134 DAYS Tuesday
10.0.7 – 2012.12.06 44 DAYS Thursday
10.0.8 – 2013.03.28 112 DAYS Thursday
10.0.9 – 2013.07.30 124 DAYS Tuesday
10.1.0 – 2013.12.19 148 DAYS Thursday
10.1.1 – 2014.01.16 28 DAYS Thursday
10.1.2 – 2014.04.29 103 DAYS so far…bold is feature updates
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Tuesday is generally the day for updates of the Feature variety. Maintenance updates are either Tuesday or Thursdays with a few exceptions.
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I agree Graig. Even with the number we have it’s very difficult to qualify actual users- butts in seats editing.
But with this one number Apple has discounted one variable. they aren’t counting multiple users from a single AppleID.
I guess it depends what other rational they’re using to describe “installs”.
If someone installed 10.0.0, and never anything else- is that an install?
If someone is continually updating with every release- can it be reasonably considered that they’re using it? Would someone update an application they’re not using?
These are all interesting questions.
At OVER 1 million installs for 3 years, aren’t we already ahead of the adoption curve for legacy FCP? If adoption doesn’t slow, then FCPX will reach the total adoption of FCP 1-7 in half the time. Isn’t that progress…?
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Except that he’s saying active users, vs just how many they’ve sold over the last X number of years.
Active users means they’re probably not counting anything below CS, and likely very little below CS3/CS4.
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[Franz Bieberkopf] “That figure was from fall 2012; it was widely reported. There is probably a better source but this is Bill Roberts from Adobe:
https://www.beet.tv/2012/09/adobepremiere.html“So what I get from that is that he’s saying 2.5 million total seats in use regardless of version.
So the appropriate affiliate to that on the FCP side would be active Legacy plus active X users.
the 1.8 million CC subscribers number is current, from their last earnings call.
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Franz- is that Adobe # Premier or total Creative Cloud subscribers? Source? I see 1.4 million from December. Who knows what percentage of those people are working in video vs web vs print or illustration. EDIT Number from March is 1.844 million total CC subscribers as of March 20th. Number of actually Premier numbers must hence be lower than that. I’d wager half.
Tim, I think Philip Hodgetts has pegged it right in the past that we have an over-inflated sense of the size of our industry. If Legacy Final Cut sold 2 million licences between 1999 and 2011 (12 years)- then I don’t think you can characterize 1 million FCPX in the 3 years since 2011 as “ridiculously low”.