Apple Announces over 1 million installs of FCPX

[Franz Bieberkopf]

[Marcus Moore] “”Apple announced today that they had more than one million separate installations of Final Cut Pro X.”

Previously (2 months ago):
https://forums.creativecow.net/thread/335/65839#65887
[Franz Bieberkopf] “Yes, well the more you look at this, it’s all just guesses.”

Previouslier (2 years ago):
https://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/36504
[Tim Wilson] “Apple isn’t in business to sell 2 million of anything over 12 years. That’s not a sustainable business in Apple-land. Frankly, I doubt that it’s as little as 10 million, but I doubt we’ll ever know for sure.”
https://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/36498
[Tim Wilson] “10 million FCPX downloads x $295 = nearly $3 billion dollars in the first year, around what they made in the first TWELVE years of Legacy. And I’m being conservative.”

And also (also two years ago):
https://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/39688
[Craig Seeman] “A while ago (a few months I believe) it was reported that FCPX passed 2.5 million downloads. I can’t recall if it was from Apple or SCRI. I remember that number being quoted at the Blackmagic Roadshow in NYC a few months back.”

And even (two-and-a-half years ago):
https://forums.creativecow.net/thread/335/19507#19507
[Craig Seeman] “That means FCPX must be under 600 thousand downloads.”

Franz.

[Marcus Moore]

Yup. The only true data points we’ve had were the “more than FCP7” from NAB2012, and the “more than one million unique” this year.

Everything else is Kremlinology.

I would say that chances are that if there’s more than one mil unique IDs being used, then the number of machines it’s being used on is certainly higher- by what factor we can only guess. 1.5X? 2X?

[Tim Wilson]

Ha! Franz, you amaze me. I was TOTALLY going to step up and say I got this wrong! LOL Oh my gosh, I was so far off.

Do note that I added at the end of almost all of those posts that I’m an idiot who knows nothing.

Here’s where I’m confused though. It’s very, very easy to find references to Apple saying that they had a million licenses in 2008, and two million in 2011. So what does THAT mean vs. what THIS means?

The one part I still stand by is that this is a ridiculously low number. I guess they have to say SOMETHING, I’d be embarrassed to have this be the flag I was trying to fly under….although in my software development career, I had to make do with less now and again, and I did it with a smile. You go with what ya got.

But this is WEAK. Both Apple and me. LOL

[Franz Bieberkopf]

[Tim Wilson] “So what does THAT mean vs. what THIS means?”

So in summary, some real numbers start to create a picture:

– Adobe Premiere Pro, 2.5 million (Fall 2012)
– FCP 1-7, 2 million (NAB 2011)
– FCP X, 1 million (NAB 2014)

Does anyone have additional (non-guessing) numbers for Avid, Lightworks, etc.?

Franz.

P.S. Tim, it’s worth it if I’ve amazed you.

[Franz Bieberkopf]

[Tim Wilson] “The one part I still stand by is that this is a ridiculously low number.”

Tim,

… the other implication that I’m thinking of is revenue.

FCP 1-7 sold for 1000.00 – 1500.00 (times 2 million) – over 2 Billion for Apple over 10 (?) years.

FCP X has generated 100 Million a year for 3 years for Apple.

Revenue isn’t the driver that it is for other software developers, but it probably has real implications in terms of resources for the developers of FCP X.

Franz.

[Marcus Moore]

Franz- is that Adobe # Premier or total Creative Cloud subscribers? Source? I see 1.4 million from December. Who knows what percentage of those people are working in video vs web vs print or illustration. EDIT Number from March is 1.844 million total CC subscribers as of March 20th. Number of actually Premier numbers must hence be lower than that. I’d wager half.

Tim, I think Philip Hodgetts has pegged it right in the past that we have an over-inflated sense of the size of our industry. If Legacy Final Cut sold 2 million licences between 1999 and 2011 (12 years)- then I don’t think you can characterize 1 million FCPX in the 3 years since 2011 as “ridiculously low”.

[Steve Connor]

[Marcus Moore] “we have an over-inflated sense of the size of our industry. If Legacy Final Cut sold 2 million licences between 1999 and 2011 (12 years)- then I don’t think you can characterize 1 million FCPX in the 3 years since 2011 as “ridiculously low”.
“

Agree, considering the industry wide resistance against it I would say 1 million is a good number.

Steve Connor

Class Bully

[Franz Bieberkopf]

[Marcus Moore] “is that Adobe # Premier or total Creative Cloud subscribers? Source? I see 1.4 million from December.”

Marcus,

That figure was from fall 2012; it was widely reported. There is probably a better source but this is Bill Roberts from Adobe:
https://www.beet.tv/2012/09/adobepremiere.html

[Marcus Moore] “Who knows what percentage of those people are working in video vs web vs print or illustration.”

Definitely. It’s “seats”, and “number of users” which I take to mean purchases of CS6 and CC (or maybe including earlier CS – but we know that total Adobe “users” is somewhere between 9-12 million).

Alternately, how many people purchases FCP X and never use it? or used it on one project and then never again? We don’t know.

These numbers don’t give the picture you’d want, but they help and they’re not guesses.

Franz.

[Franz Bieberkopf]

[Steve Connor] “Agree, considering the industry wide resistance against it I would say 1 million is a good number.”

Steve,

Isn’t the general consensus that they were less interested in “niche” workflows, and more interested in software with wide appeal?

Franz.

[Bret Williams]

And for every one of those installed seats, or $1000 sales, they probably got 1 or two upgrades of $299. So legacy , like X, was a continuous revenue stream.

BUT- how much plugin revenue have they garnered from the App Store? Maybe THAT’s Apples plan for a continuing revenue stream . Their hidden subscription. But at least it’s voluntary. However it seems most of the big plugins are still sold outside of the App Store.