[Tim Wilson]

[Jeremy Garchow] “The handling of the end of fcp7 and the beginning of fcpx has been very poor. People should be pissed off.

But if I switch to windows everything, is my future that much more secure because Microsoft said that there’s going to be the next version of their OS in three years? Ya got me….”

Dude, you know I admire and respect you, but I feel like you’re mocking me because I gave you a thorough answer. You asked whether other companies have roadmaps, I gave you most of a dozen examples from an OS and a computer company off the top of my head, speaking directly to specific communities that do in fact have overlaps with ours.

Let’s start with the HP e3000, which you’re trying to tell me was blue chip. Nope: maximum capacity of 146 gigs in a 3.5″ form factor. You could fit 20 of ’em in a rack for a total of 3TB storage, but that’s it! Three terabytes is NOT blue chip — and yet HP provided years of warning that it was going to go away, and support after the fact.

In fact, even though HP announced a 5-year sunset, the e3000 lived on nearly NINE more years because there was demand to support it.

Sound familiar? No, it doesn’t. Apple doesn’t do that. Not five years warning for EOL, not five weeks, not five days. No public promise of future support explained on new, dedicated web portals designed for resellers, developers AND customers.

And Apple keep products alive because there’s demand? Are you kidding me?

You’re also minimizing the importance of the reveal re: Windows 8 in 2009. The point wasn’t that a new OS was coming in 2012. It’s that MSFT was offering specific guidance to developers AND consumers about what was IN that OS, and how to get from here to there.

They also posted a CONSUMER-directed page showing their roadmap for OS support and obsolescence over a period of years. Has Apple evealed plans for what’s coming years in advance? Offered lengthy public betas? No. Has Microsoft? Yes.

HP’s guidance on what to expect from the Compaq merger was replete with consumer information, all the way down to home wireless networking and Bluetooth. Dude, there was a Bluetooth roadmap! They even gave the REASONS for the way they merged stuff at the CONSUMER level. So it’s actually very, very easy to compare apples to Apples, even for consumers.

See why I think you’re straw-dogging me here? I feel like you’re trying to make it sound like I’m pulling stuff out of thin air that has nothing to do with anything like what Apple is doing. It’s just not true.

Last one. Your new Dreamcolor monitor comes with VGA to DVI cables. Not because this is a good idea — HP is adamant that it’s a BAD idea, and the documentation warns of the consequences…but it’s also not their job to MAKE you throw out all your old stuff, just because you want a single new component.

Think different, all right. This is very, very different from Apple.

THAT’s what you think about counting on. A multi-year roadmap for your OS. A specific description of the future support provided for that OS, and a schedule for when that support will end years down the line. Loooong public betas. Your computer company NOT forcing you to upgrade everything to upgrade one thing. Giving you long lead times before hardware EOL, and a support roadmap for afterward.

I’m not saying that Apple is evil for doing it their way. Hey, their ball, their rules. It’s working for them, and making their stockholders rich. It’s good for America.

But their kind of secrecy is by no means universal. The fact is that if you want open vendor partners, you choose Microsoft and HP. If you want closed, you choose Apple.

Ironic, eh?

Look, you have to decide which you trust more: what Apple isn’t telling you, or what MSFT and HP ARE telling you. I get why people choose the former, but I also get why more and more people are refusing to.

For the other companies you mentioned, you already know everything you need to know. For plug-in developers, roadmaps make no sense because plug-ins are designed to plug in to WHATEVER comes along — but what comes along is out of their hands. Blackmagic give a roadmap? Well, it depends who they buy or what pops out of Grant Petty’s head tomorrow, but it’s going to cost less, or do more for the same price, and generally work better than what’s available today. Hard drive vendors? Faster, smaller, cheaper. Etc, etc, etc.

THESE have zero comparison to Apple’s OS or machine plans. Microsoft and HP are EXACT comparisons.

For industrial design, though, I’m not aware of anyone giving roadmaps — not blenders or bathroom scales, certainly not cars or computers.

Of course, other than a brief wobble that led to one scurvy dog walking the plank, I see HP peeling off their consumer devices to focus on pro computer customers. How’s THAT for a compare/contrast scenario?

You can say that HP tried and failed at the device game, and I won’t argue. It doesn’t change the outcome. Consumer devices, fading. Investment in professional computing, doubling down.

Last note on that count: it wasn’t the enterprise who provided the largest input into the Z series workstations — it was media creation pros, which HP has talked about very publicly, based on the kinds of focus groups that Apple is proud of NOT doing.

You’ll decide whether or not the camel’s back has been broken, but whatever Apple machine you see next will provide no guidance from Apple regarding the future of the kind of professional computers and computing that you’re currently relying on.

PS. Sorry I bungled pasting the link for the VMS roadmap in the previous missive. So anyway, yeah, the PPT looks a bit of a mess, but it’s talking about the future of stuff like Java, Firefox, SCSI, 10gigE, SSL, LTO5, and lots of other things that we work with every day, even if not in the VMS environment. (Fortran? Really?)

And hey, to my earlier point about knowing roadmaps without asking, you can probably guess Apple’s roadmap for every single thing I just mentioned. I’m just saying, if you ask for roadmaps in the realm of OS and computers, even for consumers, I got companies with roadmaps, and I got companies without roadmaps.

https://h71000.https://www7.hp.com/openvms/pdf/openvms_roadmaps.pdf

[Tim Wilson]

[Jeremy Garchow] “I ask because I don’t know, do other major computer/NLE/Plugin/hardware manufacturers provide roadmaps?”

Some do, some don’t.

HP has a bunch of product lines, but they released a WebOS roadmap in January. Here’s the press release.

The native tongue of big-balled business is PowerPoint….which of course tells you juuuuuust about everything you need to know, right?…so when you look at this, keep in mind that IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH HUMAN LANGUAGE. It’s PowerPoint. https://www7.hp.com/openvms/pdf/openvms_roadmaps.pdf“>It’s SUPPOSED to look this ridiculous.

Ah, but before you actually ridicule, look more closely. For all that there’s a pile of disclaimers that it’s only a general picture, it’s actually pretty dang specific.

Because here’s the thing. You have a pretty good ideas about when the next iPhone is coming out, that it’s going to be AWESOME, and your inclination to buy. The rest is finesse.

But when you’re the one guy steering a billion-dollar ship’s IT, you need more than a pretty good idea. So yeah, this one “general” idea ppt gives more specifics than Apple will give you before the sun goes nova.

Hey, this one’s fun, regarding the EOL of an HP server.

Since November 2001, when HP announced discontinuance plans for the HP e3000 and MPE/iX, HP has worked proactively with customers worldwide to help these accounts plan and order final upgrades, software, or accessory purchases. A number of HP and partner programs are in place to assist customers with transitioning to HP-UX 11i, Microsoft Windows, or Linux on other HP systems.

That’s on the full-blown sub-site for the HP e3000 Transition Program, which begins with “A Message To The Community.”

Those heartless, soulless, putty-colored, Windows-loving business bastards! Why can’t they be more like Apple???

For real grins, here’s their roadmap press release after the Compaq merger: “Customers need to know which offerings we will have in which markets. And we wanted to be able to tell them on Day One of the new HP.”

See, this is how a computer company does it. Even if, as has been the case for HP, the roadmap can change pretty wildly, pretty quickly, you tell people reasonable stuff about what you want them to know. I found that document pretty fascinating.

I also like that they offer roadmap advice to other mouth-breathing business nerds like themselves. They published a whole series of white papers called “Develop A Financial Roadmap To The Cloud,” which point out that you can’t just make this stuff up. You have to have a plan, and that plan has to make you more money than it will cost you, or it’s not worth doing. Too bad the former CEO didn’t read any of that.

I’m obviously being a little tongue-in-cheek here, but I’ll end with a peek at Microsoft.

This very day brings updates to the 2012 roadmap posted by a third-party publisher in the channel partner game. When you look at it you’ll see that a number of products have had their product roadmaps updated this month. Again, compiled by a third party, but all sourced from Microsoft, making it an interesting exercise in roadmapping nevertheless.

Not that they had to be Kremlinologists to get the info. Microsoft publishes it. These guys make it easy to find in one place. Here for example is just one of MSFT’s own roadmap pages, for Windows Embedded.

You can find a ton of these with a couple of clicks.

As with one of HP’s roadmaps above, this next one may give you a knot in the pit of your stomach because it lacks the loving embrace you’re used to from Apple….and because, okay, you don’t like MSFT, that’s cool. And it might prompt you to laugh so hard you spit milk out your nose. But they’re making a statement about the life cycle of their products that you can do with what you will.

Every Windows product has a lifecycle. The lifecycle begins when a product is released and ends when it’s no longer supported or sold. Knowing key dates in this lifecycle helps you make informed decisions about when to upgrade or make other changes to your software.

Mock away at the clueless goons and vampire monopolists. And, facetiousness aside, this isn’t all that substantial…but this is how you do it when you believe that your choices have an effect on your customers, and you acknowledge that it matters to them.

Oh, and for grins, a guy in 2009 at MSFT’s equivalent of WWDC, rolling his eyes at them for saying that Windows 8 will come out around 2012.

Tell you what, if anybody here can post a slide showing Apple’s 3-year OS roadmap, I’ll buy you a real pony. Actually, I’ll buy you a real pony if you can show it to me in private. It’ll be just between you and me.

So to answer your question without being a wiseass Jeremy, I can come up with more examples of companies in other parts of the broadest meaning of “our industry” who are very open about their roadmaps, just as I can come up with companies whose lips are sealed tighter than a tomb. But HP and Microsoft seemed like good comparables to Apple’s place in the ecosystem, and couldn’t be more different in their approach.

[Tim Wilson]

[Chris Harlan] “[Herb Sevush] “[Walter Soyka] ” for those on the fence, what would make you believe?”

A public statement defining their road-map with a timetable and a promise to publicly announce adjustments to the timetable as need be. I think Apple would be loath to go back on a public commitment. Short of that there’s nothing they can say or do that would inspire trust.
”

This is where I am as well. But I’m fairly convinced that their head is in the post PC market to a degree that such a thing will not happen.”

That there is the crux of the biscuit. Other than a “we’re bringing back the features we torched” chat from the FCPX guys, Apple has never given roadmaps about anything, have they? Especially not for something that inarguably is outside their core business. iMacs, MacBooks, plenty close enough. Heavy metal cheese graters, no.

So Chris’s excellent point becomes the new question: will you buy a Mac without a roadmap?

My prediction, respectfully, is yes, you will. If you haven’t said “I’m through trusting you clowns” yet, then I don’t see how you’re not in for another turn of the crank. A year of shit-covered fans later, it’s going to take something a lot more than even a disappointing Mac Pro release to be the last straw for most people who are still in the “I haven’t decided yet” camp.

Or, is a weak-enough Mac Pro release (new processor, Thunderbolt, not much else) enough to give someone permission to do what they WANT to do anyway, which is to not bet your family’s well-being and your own sanity that Apple’s not going to core you at some point?

And hey, tip of the hat to anyone for whom the Apple is still shiny and FCPX is working great. Much love. It’s just that I’m getting a lot more insight from these two related threads about who’s on the edge, and what it looks like to them. This is worth knowing, ’cause Apple isn’t going to try to talk you down from it.

[Tim Wilson]

[Richard Herd] “anyone can be the next Robert Rodriquez if they only buy this software. Neither Avid nor Premiere have that brand position”

Actually, Avid has EXACTLY that brand position. At least since 2003 when I went to Avid, Robert was using Media Composer, and was very forthcoming about it. Here’s a piece he did for Avid for Predators in 2010.

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Robert Rodriguez: PREDATORS – From Concept To The Big Screen from Avid on Vimeo.

Avid was also one of the hosts for the debut of his most recent feature, 2011’s Spy Kids 4D.

So he may have started using Final Cut Pro at some point after his 2010 and 2011 features along the way, but if you want to start where Robert did, you start with Avid. No disrespect to FCP or you intended, but I think it’s possible to overstate FCP as the *only* golden city on top of a high hill.

For the record, I wouldn’t be surprised if there was an FCP box in the mix somewhere. His effects company is heavily Quantel, and I wouldn’t expect most people to only use products from one company.

Also for the record, I saw Macs stacked on pallets from the floor to the top of very high ceilings at Avid. They sent out fully-configured Mac Pros quite literally by the truckload. Quite inspiring to see those 18-wheel tractor trailers packed tight with Macs going to all the good little girls and boys.

I think your goodwill accounting argument is a valid one, though. I just think that the goodwill for OS and computer sales is coming from iDevices. The Hollywood halo is from the product placement of those same iDevices in Hollywood shows. You can look at the last time Apple updated their customer stories, and how prominently they’re NOT featured anymore to see their current value to Apple.

I have my long list of advice for Apple just like anybody else, but based on the results, it looks to me that the product placement vs. “made with Final Cut Pro” strategy is the right one.

[Tim Wilson]

[Michael Sacci] ” iPad+long flight=good time to read a Blackmagic catalog on a new iPad.”

I don’t disagree at all. We do Creative COW Magazine PDFs too, but even at “only” 52-ish pages, it’s 7-10MB. Can you imagine trying to download 10MB over an NAB wifi connection? Even 3G or 4G. It’d take a month, assuming that you can even stay online.

I also have to agree with Lance and Rick — I had forgotten about it too, but I love the magazine area. Even before I started making magazines. 🙂 I usually pick up a dozen or so that I’ve never heard of, and will probably never read again — but what a cool little insight into those corners of the industry.

Now having said all that, spend some time on the NAB Show website. There are a number of people that DO have links to their PDFs for download, and if it was up to me, I’d encourage everyone to do it….but I’d still encourage them to do print. 🙂

And encourage NOBODY to carry it home.

[Tim Wilson]

[Michael Gissing] “[Tim Wilson] “They’re committed to this new direction, so COMMIT. I’m a fan. If I were their business consultant (hah-freaking-hah), that would have been my one strongest bit of advice: all or nothing, boys. Do it or don’t. ”

I strongly disagree with this sentiment. It is clear to me after eight months that FCPX is not an upgrade or replacement for FCS3. It is another NLE aimed squarely at a market that is different but has overlaps with FCS3.

Michael, I’m not saying that Apple did the right thing with FCPX as a thing unto itself. I’ve been very vocal about what I think are their, ahem, miscalculations. I do think that they looked at where things were — NOT at the the market and its needs, but the PRODUCT and its technology — and decided that they wanted to blow it up and start over….

…and if you want to start over, you begin by starting over.

[Michael Gissing] The EOL without notice and the haste with which they killed and attempted to bury the body has done irreparable damage to many people’s confidence in Apple as a supplier of a reliable professional NLE.”

Good. It SHOULD irreparably damage people’s confidence in Apple.

Apple has always been in this for Apple. If you liked it, fine – but you were collateral benefit, quite literally beside the point. They’ve been adamant from the beginning that they don’t build products for markets. They just don’t.

“[W]e didn’t build Mac for anybody else. We built it for ourselves. We were the group of people who were going to judge whether it was great or not. We weren’t going to go out and do market research.”

There’s an extent to which they started going down the market-specific route with FCP. I see FCPX as a course correction, nothing more or less. Certainly NOT a deviation, but a return to what they’ve done from the beginning: create products that attempted to CHANGE markets, not to SERVE markets. Steve openly mocked companies who focused on markets and tried to build products for them.

and, re: Apple blowing up a market-leading position with FCP to start over with FCPX, well, they did they same thing when they blew up Apple II for Mac: zero compatibility, because

“Compatibility with the past is too limiting. [W]e needed a technology that would make the thing radically easier to use and more powerful at the same time, so we had to make a break. We just had to do it.”

Hmmm, torching a user base for something radically easier to use and more powerful. Where have I heard THAT before? Or, since Steve said the above in 1985, I should ask, where have I heard it AGAIN?

The thing is that Apple didn’t “just do it” with Mac re: Apple II. They supported both for a while. They also supported OS 9 and X for a while, which, as Steve pointed out later, was a bad idea. It created two companies, and if 21st century Steve was anything, he was focused.

I’m now starting to repeat myself, but my bottom line is that I agree with your conclusion about FCPX, Michael. I truly do. I’m just saying that if this is the course Apple believes in, they should go all in.

Even if that means that you and others decide to go all out in response.

[Tim Wilson]

[Steve Connor] “Absolutely true, Apple’s second biggest mistake after dumping FCS3 was calling it Final Cut Pro 10, but what I’m trying to say is that despite what the marketing schmucks decided to call it, the fact is that it’s well known that it’s a version 1.0 software…”

Heaven knows I’m in emphatic agreement with you there. I get that it’s already a great thing for a lot of people, and I like a lot about what I think it’s trying to do, but goodness, there’s only so hard you can bang your head against the wall before it stops being fun.

Although Bessie would like to thank every single one of you for keeping at it. LOL

But I feel like stopping support of FCS 3 was one of the very smartest things they did. They’re committed to this new direction, so COMMIT. I’m a fan. If I were their business consultant (hah-freaking-hah), that would have been my one strongest bit of advice: all or nothing, boys. Do it or don’t. As Martin Luther said, “Be a sinner, and sin boldly!”

Hey Jeremy, I agree that calling it Final Cut Pro 1 again, so close to the FIRST v.1 of Final Cut Pro, would have been weird. Would have been confusing. So, following the advice of thousands of other people in these forums, maybe they should have called it iMovie Pro v. 1! Hahahaha!

[Tim Wilson]

The HP Z820, as well as the pretty little Z1, are going to be all over the South Hall. Adobe, Avid, Sony, NVIDIA, Intel, and others will have it.

We’ll pass along details as soon as we have them, but trust me, you won’t have to go too far.

Of course, everybody knows that you almost always go too far! 🙂

Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine

[Tim Wilson]

[Steve Connor] “I’m not saying give Apple a break at all,I’m just saying that as a professional I know that any software that is 100% new code is not going to be reliable straight out of the gate, whether it’s Apple or any other Developer, “

Except, to Lance’s point, they called it version 10.

I hadn’t thought it before Lance brought it up, but when Premiere Pro rebooted from Premiere, they called it version 1. The previous version of Premiere was 6.5. It took another 11 years to get BACK to the soon-arriving version 6.

When Avid rebooted Media Composer with Adrenaline, that’s what they called it. The previous version of Media Composer was 11. The current version of the new code is, coincidentally enough v.6, ten years AFTER version 11.

This is how “any other developer” handles it — if it’s brand new, they call it brand new. Why shouldn’t they? New stuff is good news, right?

So if you want the consideration that should quite reasonably be given to version 1.0 software, name it 1.0. Otherwise, you set up a quite reasonably higher expectation. But Apple doesn’t want you to think of it like 1.0. Move the decimal place. They want you to think of it as 10. Says so in plain sight.

Another example of a problem Apple created for themselves. If they had spent as much time talking about it as we just have here, they could have avoided it.

Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine

[Tim Wilson]

[Don Walker] “After reading the FCP X Techniques forums, I have come to 2 conclusions:
1. I really should spend a lot more time on the “techniques” forum, than watching the fireworks here.”

FCPX Techniques is the COW’s #2 forum, and generates enough traffic all by itself to be the #1 site on the web for anything related to any version of FCP. (It happens that we have some other FCP stuff here, too.)

Fireworks can be fun, too…but yeah, when it comes time to get to work, FCPX Techniques is the place to go. You’ll even find a lot of people who find that it’s quite ready for their own prime time experience and who might be offer advice…as well as sympathy.

Speaking of which, everyone here at the COW extends their own sympathies. We were editors before we were involved with websites, and can imagine your pain….

Regards,
Tim

Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine