[Tim Wilson]

[Franz Bieberkopf] “Agreed – it’s of vague value (though I’d like to know, it doesn’t really impact on assessing the tool).”

Wow, I certainly never meant to give the impression that I thought it was of any value whatsoever. LOL If you visit the COW’s Film History & Appreciation forum (AND YOU SHOULD) you’ll see many of my posts dissecting TV ratings, movie grosses and all kinds of other numbers for no reason than that I think it’s fun.

At BEST, numbers like this, and how people feel about those numbers, can tell you something about the audience, but precisely zero about the thing itself.

That’s actually where I think that the sales numbers discussion heated up around X. I got the feeling that some people were hoping to show that Apple had passed up the gold mine that was The Legend of FCP in favor of a bunch of pocket change chumps. I’ve made my case that Apple hands are bleeding from carrying the bags of FCPX money relative to the ceiling that The Legend of FCP was fast approaching.

Ironically, this is the exact inverse of the demand for numbers a few years back, where FCP-ers turned to sales of The Legend of FCP as validation of their choice in NLE. Maybe it’s the same thing then – hoping for pitiful sales of FCPX as a validation of their belief that Apple made a colossally wrong move, and that they should have kept showing me the same kind of love, the same kind of way because that’s how I loved THEM.

Which also speaks to my first point. Numbers won’t tell you much, if anything, about the thing being measured. Merely its reception, and with a little more thought, seeing the audience’s feeling about how they’ve received it.

Or, re: FCPX, you can ignore the numbers and just read this forum. LOL Plenty of fun to be had, maybe even moreso in the absence of hard facts.

Tim Wilson
Vice President, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou

The typos here are most likely because I’m, a) typing this on my phone; and b) an idiot.

[Tim Wilson]

Franz, the 2m FCP number came from a public Apple preso. I misunderstood your first post, and thought you were saying the article said 2m FCPX, when it was Mountain Lion. I get it now.

Chris, I like your “guesstimate multiplier” 12m napkin number because it’s close to my 10m napkin number. LOL

But to carry our Scientific Method Saturday Funfest forward, my postulation remains that FCPX has made an insane amount of money. I’m now back to being unwilling to back down from my original position, that Apple has netted, and quite possibly grossed, more from the first year of FCPX than in the first decade plus of FCP/FCS, at least partly because I haven’t seen the first reason to do so…and I’m also kind of an a-hole….

The thing to keep in mind is that there are people paid a lot more than you and me whose sole job is to make sure we never figure this out. Which is what makes this so fun.

[Tim Wilson]

I’m honored and humbled that you would take the trouble to link to my very, very napkiny numbers. I saw an article from a paid app developer who said that it took a million-ish downloads to stay on top of the paid apps list and napkined from there.

I’m going to assume that your numbers are much better than mine. LOL They HAVE to be. However, if you multiply 2 million by $300, you get $600,000,000.

Compare this to FCP/Studio, which took a dozen years to get to 2 million paid licenses. (At least that’s the last number I heard Apple mention publicly.) That’s 2.4 billion. FCPX is 25% of the way there in ONE year, and didn’t have to share any of the money with dealers, no manufacturing and distribution costs, etc.

So $600 million is quite a bit lower than my original napkin numbers, but you can buy a lot of napkins for $600 million.

It also underscores my basic point, that FCPX is a financial success on a scale that The Legend of FCP never was, and never would have been.

Tim Wilson
Vice President, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou

The typos here are most likely because I’m, a) typing this on my phone; and b) an idiot.

[Tim Wilson]

it’s a first if it’s a paid position. LOL

Tim Wilson
Vice President, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou

The typos here are most likely because I’m, a) typing this on my phone; and b) an idiot.

[Tim Wilson]

This kind of thing happened in the early 90s when assmunchers like me got our hands on “cheap” UVW 1800 decks and UVW 100 cameras and could deliver broadcast quality BetaSP masters…from my “cheap” NLE ($30k for the board, $8k for the computer, $20k for 30 gigs of storage) that could only do 640×480, but stations didn’t care. I got a gig for American Express, where they said, “This better not be any of that 640×480 desktop crap.” I sweated for a heartbeat but said, “Hey, I want to work for you again. It won’t be crap.” I left out that it WOULD be 640. They were delighted with the results. I should have charged more.

So that’s what I did. Here I was competing against guys who spent 10x or more to get started than I did, and I charged MORE than they did. I didn’t want to be the must expensive guy in town, but I never wanted to drop into third place either. I weeded out a lot of nonsense that way.

But more than one thing is true at a time. People like Bob and me were no different than these punks today. We worked for zero, and worked our way up to peanuts, and worked that way for YEARS. In a way, its kind of cool that kids are using 5D cameras to fight for their scraps. I used a $10,000 camera to compete with $100,000 cameras, and my competitors came after me with DV cameras that cost $1000. The nature of the beast, but ironically, there aren’t many $1k cameras out there, any more than there are many $100K cameras out there, proving the old axiom that things are getting cheaper, unless they’re not.

re: Web videos, back when people were shooting film, 5 years ago (hahaha), I knew guys shooting film for the web. The fact is that lots of web video is HD, and there’s no reason NOT to shoot that way. It doesn’t cost any more, and better images compress faster and smaller. Look at RED forums. Assloads of those people are shooting web video. I’m not convinced that most PhantomHD video doesn’t wind up in YouTube. Again, nature of the beast.

But that’s another aspect of Bob’s post. Hustle up or hustle out. It may seem like its getting harder, but I swear it has always been hard. not that it’s getting easier either of course…

But as much help as I got from the COW and its antecedent for my own business, and as much help as I hope it provides, I think there’s something to be said for not helping anyone to cannibalize you or crater your business. They ARE gunning for you, just like Bob used to do, just like I used to do. That’s just what this business IS, chewing your way past the people in front of you, trying to stay ahead of the people wanting to do exactly the same thing to you.

And trying to have fun, be creative, be collaborative, be nice, blah blah blah…but mostly trying to keep your blood out of the water. As Bob has noted in this forum many, many times, nearly any job you can think of is easier to make a living with than this one. But the field is growing, not shrinking, and every field has room for the relentless.

Tim Wilson
Vice President, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou

The typos here are most likely because I’m, a) typing this on my phone; and b) an idiot.

[Tim Wilson]

Exactly. They were able to reduce size, make it quieter, add T-bolt and drop the price by NINETY percent because they COULD. I don’t think they dropped the price of the Resolve panel much, if at all.

Kidding aside, I don’t think Avid would make a great fit…but if Grant wanted to make it fit, I have no doubt he could. LOL

Tim Wilson
Vice President, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou

The typos here are most likely because I’m, a) typing this on my phone; and b) an idiot.

[Tim Wilson]

You’re kidding, right? They should rename the company Multitasking, Inc. and just get on with buying Avid. LOL

Tim Wilson
Vice President, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou

The typos here are most likely because I’m, a) typing this on my phone; and b) an idiot.

[Tim Wilson]

[Bob Zelin] “Marshall Amplifiers for musicians now make a refrigerator.”

C’mon man, turn down the milk! I’m tryin’ to sleep here!

[Tim Wilson]

Nick, you’re an inspiration to us all. it’s great to hear a story where the guy who SHOULD win actually DOES win. I’m proud to know you.

For the purposes if the conversation though, note that logo, tagline, copy, etc. are WORK, which is protected. The idea for, say the campaign and its execution, wouldn’t have been. Kids, look up “idea-expression divide.” Idea: no legal protection. Expression: legal protection.

I was afraid I said it too strongly in my previous post, but I clearly didn’t say it strongly enough: do not even THINK about an NDA.

I’m not scolding anyone on this thread, I promise. This comes up every couple of years, and I’m terrified that some day, somebody might be persuaded that it’s a good idea. It’s not.

I would be horrified to have a Business & Marketing forum where anybody came away thinking that an NDA is even vaguely a good thing in these circumstances. in fact, I hope that one of our most enduring legacies is to make sure that this potential disaster never ensues. not kidding, even a little.

Here are a tiny handful of reasons why should never utter those three letters in this context again:

• They’re not applicable because THE LAW DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS USE OF THEM.
• They’re not binding because THE LAW DOES NOT SUPPORT THIS USE OF THEM.
• They create an atmosphere of mistrust
• The person you pitch to may not be authorized to sign NDAs…
• …and seriously bro – how many NDAs have you signed? One? Two? None? It’s just not done outside of very specific conditions, NONE OF WHICH ARE IDEAS.
• The person you pitch it to thinks its a terrible idea and resents that you wasted even MORE of their time with the NDA.
• The person you pitch to may not be authorized to sign NDAs…
• …and seriously bro – how many NDAs have you signed? One? Two? None? I’ve been in news and PR in this industry for 20+ years, and have signed maybe 6 or 8. I’ve worked at publicly traded companies who guard their secret like trolls protect gold and have asked people to sign NDAs twice. It’s just not done outside of very specific conditions, NONE OF WHICH ARE IDEAS.
• An NDA is an implied threat.Seriously, ask yourself: do you want a client to listen to your pitch while wondering if you’re going to try to sue them? Insanity.
• Although rather than make them afraid, it’ll show them that YOU’RE afraid. Clients smell fear.
• The person you pitch it to thinks its a terrible idea and resents that you wasted even MORE of their time with the NDA.
• Are you sure it’s original? REALLY REALLY sure? Imagine making your NDA-d pitch (although I beseech you to NEVER EVER EVER consider such a thing) and the client says, “Turn on Channel 972. Your idea is on TV RIGHT NOW.” I’ve never met anybody more thorough than Nick, yet somebody had come up with the same tagline without him finding out. How far out on a limb are you willing to go to expose your research skills?

This is a short, short list. You can Google “idea-expression divide” to come up with case law dating back to Article 1 of the US Constitution (home of the Copyright Act) for a bunch more.

Here’s the biggest reason to never, ever consider asking for an NDA. (Aside from the fact that they’re neither relevant nor binding when pitching ideas.) You are not a troll. You are not a prospector in 1849. Your gold is not a pile of rocks that you’re sitting on, with you willing to kill anyone who comes close.

You are a creative person. Coming up with great ideas is your JOB. More than that, it’s your NATURE. You want people to feel comfortable that you come up with great ideas as easily as you fart because THAT’S WHAT YOU DO. You’re an idea guy. If they work with you, they’ll never run out of great ideas because YOU’LL never run out of great ideas.

(Don’t forget that there are entire swaths of this industry, from advertising to joke writing, where pretty much your ONLY job is coming up with great ideas.)

If you really feel like this is your one and only golden ticket, that you’ll never have an idea this good again so you have to do everything possible to protect it — at your age? This is best you’re going to have for the rest of your career? It’s gonna be a short one.

Trust yourself. Relax. Enjoy the ride. Enjoy the power that comes from knowing that nobody can steal ALL of your great ideas, because your great ideas keep coming. They are relentless, and so are you.

And don’t forget how rich people have gotten not just with crappy ideas, but ideas that are crappy and derivative of other people’s crappy ideas.

And don’t forget, no kidding man, great ideas are all around. The way to keep people from taking them from you and running with them themselves is if you convince them that you’ve got the goods for actually MAKING MONEY with the idea, which is actually an entirely different skill set – and most clients know that.

But mostly trust yourself to have more than one great idea.

Tim Wilson
Vice President, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou

The typos here are most likely because I’m, a) typing this on my phone; and b) an idiot.

[Tim Wilson]

[Mads Nybo Jørgensen] ” If a “client” ask a “supplier” to provide an idea. Then should the “client” use the idea, the “supplier” has the right to charge for it. For this to be enforceable, one needs to establish a business relationship. “

Yeah, you can charge for it if the client asks, but only if the client feels like it. It’s perfectly legal for a client to say, “Hey Stephen, pitch me an idea like THIS,” and Stephen pitches it, the client says “No thanks,” and then does it themselves exactly like he pitched it. It’s not common, but it has happened to people in this very forum. And while skeevy, it’s 100% legal.

The point being: ideas have no protection, even in a business relationship.

That’s actually written into American law. You can’t contain an idea in a contract. It’s the reason why American trademarks and patents expire. Ideas are SUPPOSED to float free. They belong to everyone. It’s the American Way.

(In fact with trademarks and patents, it’s not just the idea that floats free — in many cases the actual WORK can float free, for you to do with as you please. Hence Pride & Prejudice & Zombies. Ready to print and sell your own edition of Moby-Dick? Go for it. You don’t even need to include the hyphen if you don’t want to.)

Your problem Mads is that, over there in the UK, things are much more civilized. LOL

Tim Wilson
Vice President, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou

The typos here are most likely because I’m, a) typing this on my phone; and b) an idiot.