[Tim Wilson] “So, provocatively, what’s your take on this? Not just your take on his take, but your thinking on the big picture?”
Everyone always expects the unexpected from Apple and FCPX. Even PPro users, finding it a comfortable (and impressive) progression from Legacy, are eyeing FCPX, not because it’s “the best” but the most innovative (not every risk is a success though).
The past year Apple FCPX has been focused on “professional” (broadcast) improvements with Library rethinking and MXF support. Many FCPX users may even be frustrated, for the time being, at Apple’s pragmatic approach of the last year. This probably has given some none FCPXers time to play with it without feeling they’re being hit with “feature innovation” onslaught. I think people are expecting a few rounds of feature improvements along with more innovation in the coming year though.
Adobe PPro has been adding new features at a somewhat consistent and relatively fast pace. Not the “radical” features that Apple is capable of though. In fact when “radical” Adobe feature, speech recognition, didn’t progress, they dropped it.
What is clear to me is that there’s two very divergent company development philosophies. Adobe the progressive and Apple the risk taking radical.
Big picture.
Adobe PPro grows fastest but Apple’s FCPX inroads will quicken.
In the next major update Blackmagic DaVinci Resolve will develop into a more reasonable NLE. Plugin developers are quickly adding support.
Avid MC will remain in its niche and as the other NLEs progress, will see more erosion outside of its niche. Avid will refocus on making that niche more profitable though.
Ultimately, Apple’s exciting to watch because, sometimes, despite some faltering, they do innovate.