Hi Bill,
Thanks for the excellent description. I run a rental house in São Paulo, Brazil, and had the opportunity to check out some LED fixtures in the last three/four years. I agree completely with you on the fact that LED and tungsten fixtures just have in common the fact that both are photon sources, and nothing else.
Last year I attended NAB Show in Vegas and had the chance to see a presentation sponsored by a three-part panel (Academy, Government and someone else I can´t remember), where tungsten was compared to three different LED brands in real filming conditions.
Everybody was amazed to see how much LEDs stood behind the tungsten, for there was a huge variation in terms of color rendering and light definition.
I assume that LEDs still have a long way to go until they match the light quality of tungsten fixtures, but at the same time I have a feeling that, due to physical limitations of the fixture, they´ll flat their development curve in a point where you can´t go further in terms of power X luminescence.
According to what you have described here, I think that LEDs will be the work horse of the lower end productions/jobs, while all the other fixtures, such as daylight and tungsten, still will hold the grip on the main works.
Thanks again for your excellent contribution to this thread!