Andrew Kimery
Forum Replies Created
-
I hadn’t seen that yet.
I assume if it goes well HBO will try and do something similar in the U.S. down the line. I presume that current contracts with cable providers is one of the reasons this isn’t happening in the U.S. yet. I wonder how $12.50 in the U.S. would fly though. I mean in relation to customer perception of value compared to Netflix and Hulu+ (which are both $10/mo I think). Let’s say people are okay with $12.50/mo. How much do you think ESPN could get away with? Or AMC? I’d say ESPN could go higher but AMC would have to aim lower (and get its content off of Netflix).
It’s almost like the a la carte service that so many people want but careful what you wish for. $50/mo is the average broadband price in the U.S. and for around $10 a pop for each ‘channel’ it won’t take long to meet or surpass the price of the monthly cable bill but with a lot less bang for the buck.
-
[Bill Davis] “I’ll risk angering the analogy gods once again…”
I was just speaking to the general idea that tools don’t matter when in the real world they do. My post contained no hidden meanings nor subtle digs.
-
[Craig Seeman] “You add emphasis to his point that cost of entry is very low. Talent and skill are the telling factors.”
Talent and skill are the telling factors… as long delays introduced by not using the best, or even the right, tool for the job don’t don’t bring you down first. I mean, can I use the a tack hammer to drive a large nail? Sure, it would work in a pinch but I sure as heck wouldn’t choose to frame a whole house with one (especially if I framed houses for a living and competed against other framers for jobs).
If you have all the time in the world then that’s one thing, but paying work tends to have deadlines which makes time a factor which makes using the right tool for the job a higher priority than if you are creating a labor of love on the side.
-
[Chris Harlan] “With respect, I didn’t say anything about online stores. The big fear then was (and still is) mass pirating. I don’t know about you, but I had WinAmp back in ’97. I was ripping CDs and turning them into digital files. Remember all of the online MP3 sharing on UseNet that began around ’96/97, and all of the fear that it would be the end of the recording industry? The DMCA in ’98. And then Napster? And the RIAA suits in 99? The download services you mention are the answer to THAT problem, not a direct attack on brick and mortar stores.”
I had mentioned online stores before. Chalk that up to an Internet communication SNAFU.
Yeah, things like the Diamond Rio case my campus blocking file sharing ports so people had to run through proxy servers to get around it. Even if they weren’t directly in the line of fire, the B&M stores still got hammered. The major labels are still around but lots of local music stores are not and the floor space devoted music in stores like Best Buy is miniscule.
A while back I was driving by a Best Buy so I swung in to the pick up the latest Rush album and the CD section was tiny and off the side. I was taken back which goes to show you the last time I bought an album at a store. Honestly, I think the last Album I bought at a store was in 05 or 06. I pretty much order all of my CDs from Internet sellers and buy a few tracks or albums as downloads.
Back on topic, it sounds like the people running some of these companies weren’t listening to the right people because they either ignored the situation until it was too late, never believed it would become a problem and/or thought they could contain it.
[Chris Harlan] “We just disagree over the timeline.”
In 12 years we’ll have to remember to revisit this thread and someone will owe someone else a beer. Regardless of who is right I’ll even print up custom beer mugs for the occasion!
-
[Chris Harlan] “I hate to disagree, but the Internet threat to CDs and DVDs was pretty well understood by all at that point, and if you were anything more than a journeyman PC user, obvious a good five years before that. So, Bellevue, no.
So in ’97, when DVD players were over a grand, 56k modems were a year away and physical mail was still more popular than email it was obvious to anyone that was computer literate that the disruption from Internet sales and/or delivery services such as Amazon, iTMS and Netflix would happen in the time frame that it did? Honestly I think that’s a little revisionist and certainly isn’t how I recall it. I was building x86 boxes and established a regular Internet presence around that time so I feel like I was sufficiently geeky to pick up on info like that.
Sure, there was the “someday we’ll do X and Y and Z over the Internet” but I don’t remember it being a forgone conclusion that in less than 15 years Internet sales and distribution would upend established companies and watching HD (wait this is ’97, what’s HD?) streams on any one of a number of Internet connected devices would be as common place as flipping a light switch.
With all that being said, I did say if you talked to the heads of those companies as opposed to if you talked to someone that might be more forward thinking. Those company heads, and others like them, at best underestimated the time frame of consumer adoption of this new tech or at worst were in denial of what was going on. Back then, just like now, I heard people say things like “Well people like the shopping experience. There’s some thing nice about browsing through a rack of CDs/DVDs/Misc Physical Item that you just can’t get when shopping on line.” Obviously the desire to shop at a physical store isn’t as important as some people thought it was. Personally I enjoyed thumbing through racks of albums waiting for cover art to jump out a me or digging through the shelves at bookstores seeing if there are any gems waiting to be found. Now I’ll find what I want on Amazon and it’s at my place in two days w/free shipping or I’ll buy the digital copy and start enjoying it immediately.
[Chris Harlan] “For one thing, everything has to be made out of the same material.”
ABS plastic is the most common (and might be the only option currently for consumer grade printers) but metal and strong composite materials are possible with industrial grade gear. I never implied it would be great for everything and that’s why I limited my examples to things I think it could be good at. Ceramic dinner plates? No. Plastic dishes for kids? Maybe (not sure if the material is food-grade or not). Basic plastic children’s toys? Sure (even remote controlled cars if you go the kit route). Basic tools? Sure, but down the road.
[Chris Harlan] “We were talking about the Z printer which is quite a bit more sophisticated than either the Airwolf or the available kits.
.
.
.I think there is a lot of value in 3D printers. I just don’t see them as a challenge to Target or Home Depot for many years to come.”
I was talking about 3D printers in general (sorry if that wasn’t clear) and, like I said, I’m not going all doom and gloom on retail stores but in 10-15yrs I think 3D printing will have become a disruptive force. I doubt Target and Home Depot would go under but they might have the reorganize their priorities. I mean, the floor space given to CDs and videogames at Target is certainly smaller than it used to be and it seems to be more common for Targets to be full fledged grocery stores these days.
This past January I think was the first time legal music download sales equalled physical album sales (and that’s after years of CD sales being in free fall) so I’m not predicting a future w/o physical sales by any means. I just think that in 10yrs or so we’ll have a disruption in an area most people wouldn’t expect it. Someone might say, “Digital movies, books and TV shows… sure those are all just 1’s and 0’s but I make things that are real. I make things that you can’t just beam around the world in an instant.” Well, pretty much anything can be scanned and turned into 1’s and 0’s and 3D printer tech seems to be coming along so I think this is going to be another ding against those that make and/or sell physical items. I, for one, am looking forward to a day when I can easily and inexpensively print my own cell phone case as opposed to paying 29.99 for $1 worth of molded plastic.
-
10yrs can be a pretty long time in this day and age. I mean, in 2002 if you told the people running companies like Borders, Blockbuster, Circuit City and Virgin Megastore that they’d be gone inside a decade mainly because of the Internet I’m sure they would’ve called a cab to take you back to Bellevue. 10-15yrs from now a lot of landscapes are going to look pretty different.
I think there’s two levels of thing that are in motion right now. First, a ‘desktop revolution’ will happen the same way it did for publishing/printing, music recording, editing, DVD creation and even color correction. Small shops and independent artist will open up their own studios for a fraction of what the established players can and both creators and consumers will start having choices where as they really only had have one before. Second, tech savvy consumers will grab free 3D models from other online users and print a variety of things from simple kids toys to plastic sprinkler heads and peg-board organizers.
Check out these free 3D models of Brio toy train track sections. This is the type of thing that’s on my mind.
https://www.thingiverse.com/thing:22244
Toys for young kids and game pieces are usually pretty basic and will probably be some of the easier things to replicate using prosumer and/or consumer 3D printers. In 2022 why buy high margin tracks for toy trains and Hot Wheels when you can conveniently and inexpensively print them at home?
This begs the question, how will these companies react? Will they sue? Does Brio own copyright over the dimensions of its tracks? Will they embrace it and sell direct-to-print 3D models themselves? How will this further harm brick and mortar retailers? I don’t think this is any sort of doomsday scenario but a sizable disruption is coming.
-
The best version is, of course, the Star Wars version.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJlbPXZEpRE
Some contents or functionalities here are not available due to your cookie preferences!This happens because the functionality/content marked as “Google Youtube” uses cookies that you choosed to keep disabled. In order to view this content or use this functionality, please enable cookies: click here to open your cookie preferences.
-
An adjustable wrench is scanned into a computer, the 3D model is fine tuned by a 3D modeler (which isn’t really shown in the video) and then printed using a 3D printer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jQ-aWFYT_SUDoctors use a 3D printer to make an ABS plastic vest and exoskeleton arms to improve a little girl’s mobility. As she grows, and parts break, replacements can be easily printed.
https://www.engadget.com/2012/08/08/3d-printed-magic-arms-give-a-little-girl-use-of-her-limbs/Jay Leno uses a 3D scanner and 3D printer to help make replacement parts for his cars (some parts can be totally fabricated on the spot while for others he generates an exact plastic replica which will be used to make a mold so a part can be cast).
https://www.jaylenosgarage.com/extras/articles/jay-lenos-3d-printer-replaces-rusty-old-parts-1/There were two or three companies at CES this past January showing off consumer 3D printers. I think we are closer to this tech trickling into mainstream commercial and consumer uses than people think. Hell, until last year I didn’t even know this stuff existed. It will start out small and possibly unimpressive but that’s part for the course for new things.
Some contents or functionalities here are not available due to your cookie preferences!This happens because the functionality/content marked as “Google Youtube” uses cookies that you choosed to keep disabled. In order to view this content or use this functionality, please enable cookies: click here to open your cookie preferences.
-
[Rich Rubasch] “This idea is a bunch of bunk. Said the same thing when DVDs came to our homes for <$200 a player. Movie theaters were all going to go bankrupt.
Nothing compares to seeing a movie in a theater in the same way that nothing beats seeing an item, touching it, using it and then buying it. I don’t want to go to Sears and look at jeans then go home and order them online so a UPS truck can deliver it to my house. I want the jeans now.
There is room for both models, but brick and mortar shopping will never go away.”
I don’t think brick and motar stores will entirely disappear either, but considering all the boarded up Blockbusters, Borders, Circuit Cities, music stores, etc., I don’t think the major impact of online sales can be ignored. I don’t see that trend turning around as technology continues to improve and become more affordable.
-
There are already consumer grade 3D printers so I see a not-so-distant future where we ‘buy’ a single-use right to print a wrench, for example, from an online store. The store directly communicates with the in-home 3D printer and a few minutes/hours later we have a wrench. The devil, of course, will be in keeping people from pirating the printing plans and tossing them out onto the web for anyone to grab. I wonder if Craftsman and Mattel are contemplating a world where people can print tools and kids toys at home?