What will happen in 2010?

[Bouke Vahl]

Adrenaline will be killed within 5 years.
It’s already ‘old’…

Mojo will always exist in one form or another, but in it’s current shape it will also fade out withing 5 years.

As long as there are no video cards with decent SD / HD output, one needs something to watch on a monitor that is ‘comparable’ to end user sets, and in the next 10 years i dont see it happen that TV watching does not happen from the couch anymore. (well, at least not in an average household)

Tapes will NOT die in the next ten years. I had two customers bring in U-matic last months. Tape acquisition will die in 10 years, but there are still tape based camcorders sold, and they will last for 10 years, and of course will be used.

A lot of broadcast is tapeless already, but tape is still preferred as a delivery medium as it is way more fool proof than digital delivery, thus cheaper (even if it means you need a 50K VTR to play out, and the ingest at the station of course needs a 40K player…)

But it all does not matter. Buy whatever stuff you need to make money. If it does, good. If you have to throw it out after it has made you some money, also good.
Just do not buy stuff you are not sure of it has ROI. Rent that part..

Bouke

http://www.videoToolShed.com
smart tools for video pro’s

[Bob Zelin]

It is very important to remember that no matter what comes out (let’s say the RED 4K camera actually works, and the the total package comes down to $20,000 US – I am just making this up) – you will STILL have a client that will want you to deliver their tapes on Beta. Even if 1 Gig solid state cards are readily available by 2010, Hitachi already announced they will release a 4 TB drive in 2009, and by 2010, it will cost $250, so COST will be more important than the “cool” solid state storage.

But what will REALLY happen in 2010 is that the young people that are working with iMovie, and other very inexpensive products like this, will have 2 more years of experience, and will continue to steal your clients, because they have gotten better at their craft, and will charge less money than you.

I think the impact of Fibre Optic transmission to TV stations is MUCH more important. For example, companies like DG Systems, VELA, already exist and are popular for delivery of commercial spots to TV stations – and they work on regular copper internet lines. If Fibre continues to be hooked up to everyone’s building (for cable TV like Verizon is currently doing)- you will shoot in P2, or RED, or whatever, edit your show (on Hitachi 4TB drives in your AVID or FCP system), and deliver via Fibre Optic transmission (using encoders from Harmonic, Tandberg, etc.). No Sony SRW-5500 VTR at all.

Bob Zelin

[Grinner Hester]

2010
dude, did I fall asleep for two years?

I have handed the adrenaline down to the kids by then. They’ll surf the net, load games on it and laugh at it’s old school ways, picturing me going out to get water from the well in the days that I billed on it.
I’ll be on one of their wiz bang best-buy badboy computers makin’ some sweeet video. I better be freakin retired by then, whatever that is. I don’t have enough hair to do another decade.
If only I had started out with Bob’s hair.

[Terence Curren]

Adrenaline is already end of life. New announcements have been promised in February since Avid isn’t doing a booth at NAB. I would really be surprised if we don’t hear of a replacement for Adrenaline.

My guess is that Symphony Nitris will come down in price, DS will attempt to be positioned against higher end finishing systems like Smoke and maybe even Pablo, and a third party will provide something to replace the hole left by Adrenaline (about time!)

PS: I have NO knowledge if this is accurate, and if I did, I wouldn’t be able to post it due to NDA.

Terence Curren
http://www.alphadogs.tv
http://www.digitalservicestation.com
Burbank,Ca

[Harcharan Singh]

Hi,
Is this a indication that try to clear the ‘Adrenalines’ you have and shift to products such as AJA Kona IO HD with FCP?
…….or wait for Avid announcement in case they do a trade in for Adrenalines…which I seriously doubt.
Thks
Harchu

[Jon Zanone]

Disregarding the obvious FCP flame…

I’m definitely heading towards tapless. In the government world, its silly not to. Long gone are the in place enginering staff / TV studio budgetary black holes. If you are smart, you’ll get away from tape as soon as you can. Having a rack full of UMatic, BetaSP, et. al. is impressive. Tapless is money.

As for the software / hardware combo? I use Avid because it is the best PC-based NLE out there. My knowledge base is Avid, my client base does not care what I use to edit their product and I prefer Avid. Avid works for me. ’nuff said.

Jon

“So you want to throw out the old you – but the old you is old enough to know it won’t make it better”
Del Amitri – “Make it Better”

[Tim Bird]

About 15 years ago, my old film prof suggested that although Avid had the popular GUI at the time, their approach to system configuration was deficient and the company had a fairly self-centered business model (my words, not his.) At some point, he suggested, another manufacturer will come along with a better interface, better business model and a more open platform and Avid will decline in popularity.

Since that time, the issues of openness and corporate business model have been the major gripe of Avid’s customers. This is manifest in Avid’s lack of response to customer feature requests, openness of the systems, ease of integration with 3rd party software, overall cost of product etc. The Dec. issue of POST Magazine carried an article describing Avid’s new CEO’s plans to re-invigorate the company and respond to user concerns.

Having been a dedicated Avid user, multiple system owner, ACSR, beta tester, and instructor of more than 400 Avid editors over the last decade, I was tickled by the POST article. How many times has such a publicity campaign been waged by this company with little or no change in corporate mentality or customer satisfaction? Yet, they are still perceived as the industry LEADER?

Meanwhile, the Avid system I used everyday for so long has not been turned on in nearly a year and will soon show up on eBay (I’ve adopted a more capable and cost effective platform.) If Avid is to remain a leader in this business, they have a lot more to decide than just answers to the questions posed Harcharan.

A few years ago, Oliver Peters suggested to me that “Mojo is just a dongle for uncompressed.” True. It is not capable (as is) of HD output of any kind. Mojo and Adrenaline cripple the the very systems they are meant to enable. Mojo was introduced as an I/O add on to Xpress Pro. This combination of crippled hardware to accompany crippled software was Avid’s answer to the growth of Final Cut Pro… but it came nowhere near the capability of FCP with an AJA I/O (for example.)

Now we wonder what Avid will do two years from now? Responses seem to favor Mojo as a suitable interface for Avid for the future. Ridiculous.

Stop drinking the kool-aid.

Everything customers are asking Avid to provide by 2010 is offered NOW by other manufacturers. Avid is over.

Respectfully,

Tim Bird

[Harcharan Singh]

Hi,
Well said Tim and Ill request Avid lovers to give their unbiased opinion on this post so that it becomes noticible and Avid guys also have a look here….whether they act or not is doubtful…Act fast Avid ….February may be too late.
As for me just thinking to dump off my Avids’s and switch to something better.. u know what…and as rental house it make better sense.
Thks
Harcharan

[Bob Zelin]

Tim is absolutely correct. I don’t understand the “emotional love” towards AVID. I have seen this in the past. Ikegami tube camera owners (HL-79A) HATED the “new fangled” CCD chip cameras that destroyed the entire tube camera market (“nothing makes a beautiful picture like my Ikegami HL-79A). The same thing happened when Sony Beta VTR’s came out (” 1″ is the Professional format – Betacam SUCKS”). Film editors said video editing SUCKS. Video editors (CMX) said AVID sucks. And now if you “stray” from AVID, you are a traitor, as FCP (and everything else) SUCKS compared to AVID. Yet, every original team member and designer from AVID NO LONGER WORKS FOR AVID.

Think about the great company you work for. If they FIRED you tomorrow, would it be the same great company ?

Creative Cow (and many user forums) focus on small companies and independent owners, not huge corporations that have millions of dollars to spend. AVID loves to deal with large broadcast corporations (like CNN, NBC, etc.). They don’t really care about the one man operation that owns an AVID Mojo, and dreams about a $2000 AVID box that will let him do HD-SDI. ITS NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN. If you or your company could get contracts for MILLIONS of dollars, you too would not care about the little guy that can barely afford the 1 day rental of a piece of equipment from your company.

Bob Zelin

[Michael Hancock]

Bob, you bring up an interesting point. While I feel strongly about the software I use (including Avid), it’s because it lets me get my job done with the least amount of unnecessary work, not because I “love” it.

It is strange to see blind passion from a user toward any product. You see it a lot in the PC vs. Mac war, and it’s happening now between Avid and FCP. I think a large part of it come from people’s fear of being wrong–nobody wants to invest in the “wrong” software or “wrong” hardware, so when a FCP editor tells an Avid editor their software is better, they ruffle feathers. Just like an Avid editor telling a FCP editor they’re system of choice isn’t “pro”. In the end, it’s futile because they’re just tools.

Someone mentioned Oliver Peters referring to the Mojo as a dongle for uncompressed SD. I laughed when I read that because it’s pretty much true. Avid has a lot of catching up to do if they plan on competing in the hardware department, and I would rather see them open their system to third party vendors (AJA, etc…) for the little businesses/indie editors (like the agency I work for), and continue to provide closed systems for the million dollar clients (news departments, etc…) to offer complete reliability (or as close as they can get). That’s where they make their money, and it’s working for them. Unless that starts to take a beating, it’s a good path to follow. But in the small shop/independent market it appears they’re being destroyed.

If Avid backs out of the indie market entirely to focus on bigger ticket clients we’ll all feel the sting because it will be one less competitor to deal with. Who’s left?

If you use a Mac, it’s FCP or Premiere (which I believe is basically the same program), and FCP appears to have the market cornered between the two. Both offer a lot of features Avid doesn’t, but also lack features that Avid dominates (media management comes to mind).

On the PC it’s Premiere, Edius, Vegas…anyone else in popular use? Again, they offer some great things Avid doesn’t but they also lack certain elements that Avid has. My point?

Without Avid competing what will motivate these companies to keep pushing their products further and further like they have been? Avid has been resting on its laurels because it hasn’t had serious competitors–now it does and it has to react fast. Remove Avid from the equation and I imagine FCP will become the new standard–how long before it starts resting on its laurels? Will Premiere improve enough to keep pushing the competition? Will FCP’s development be hindered by Apple’s other interests/programs (Color, Motion, etc…)?

Apple has its hands in all kinds of cookie jars (FCP, harware, OS development, iPhone, iPod, etc…). Adobe has all their multiple Apps to think about improving and updating will still being able to seamlessly integrate them. Edius…well, I don’t care for Edius. Grass Valley is making improvements, but they don’t make it easy to like the program. It’s weird. Vegas–never used it, can’t comment. Avid Liquid–never used it, but is it supposed to fight against FCP and Premiere? If so, it needs some serious rebranding if it’s going to be taken seriously in the “pro” market (is it even up to the task?).

My point is, all this new competition has been great for not only pricing but features. I imagine Avid’s edit systems have been a benchmark for other companies to shoot towards in terms of workflow/toolsets/etc… It’s been a competition to see who can provide what Avid has provided, but better and cheaper? To lose any competitor entirely in the small business market would hurt. Even if Avid becomes a second or third or fourth choice, it’s better to have it competing and not abandon the little guy completely. If that means HD-SDI Mojo or support for a Kona card, awesome.

I don’t think it’s about who’s “better”, but who’s making their product better for your workflow, and the more quality products we have competing with each other the better for all of us.

Michael.