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WAKE UP PEOPLE – The End is Nigh
The end of 4×3 SD television, that is. Consider this:
1) Currently broadcasters must continue to support the large number of 4×3 TVs that pick up their analog signal. After the digital transition next February, everyone will have either cable TV or a set top box that will have the capability of letterboxing 16×9 programming on a 4×3 TV, thus letting broadcasters off the hook having to directly support 4×3 screens.
2) It is impractical to produce both 4×3 and 16×9 programming simultaneously.
3) The number of 16×9 screens is at 33% rapidly heading for 50%. 4×3 new TV sales are negligable.
4) 4×3 programming on a 16×9 screen looks like crap.
These four factors, along with inter-market competition, will ensure that broadcasters switch to 16×9 format en masse probably by the end of next year. And of course I mean 16×9 HD, since it would be silly to stick with SD at this point.
It seems that Cable interests apparently have the clout with the FCC to eliminate multi-channel must-carry. This more or less kills the practicality of the multi-channel SD options that broadcasters were promised. So ultimately they are likely to provide only a single channel of HD within their assigned bandwidth. But even if they do continue to produce SD programming, it is going to be 16×9 to accomodate the soon-to-be majority of 16×9 TVs.
My point is that this transition is going to be much sooner and much quicker than most people expect – including people in the production business.