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Time to change the forum name yet?
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rotfl
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[Chris Harlan] “Very true. Which is why the questions here–whether FCP X represents A) a helium ballon or B) a lead weight for those wishing to participate in that industry–are so interesting.”
I think Apple’s approach is to target the broad middle, with wide middle use attract developers and rise back up. Sort of like they did with FCP legacy . . . but they are certainly starting over again and not only was the marketing a mess, getting things to third party developers is also a bit of a mess. In fact it’s the latter that would have me most concerned. FCPX, if anything, is even more dependent on third party developers than FCP legacy was and apparently all sorts of things around this have been “slow.”
[Chris Harlan] “BTW–it is my observation that there are FAR more post jobs than there were two decades ago. There is also MUCH more programing than there was two decades ago.”
I agree. I think the broad middle, corporate, both external and internal video production, is actually on the rise. We are a much more video centric/dependent society now. I think Apple’s banking on that as a way to bring more Mac hardware into those environments. Of course they must succeed there if FCPX is to have viable expansion into other market.
None of this means they will succeed in any of this but it seems to be their “business plan” with FCPX.
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FCPX is the Euro of the post market?
“I see FCPX is trending up agains MCs this week.”
Does this mean we’ll see things like an FCPX futures market as well? -
I don’t see a scenario where Avid survives in its current form. I could see either the entire company or MC product line being bought though. One scenario would be Blackmagic buys it as they did with DaVinci. Just tea leaves of course.
FCPX will take time but the first inroads will happen sooner. It certainly would take longer to have any chance of dominating though. I think by 2013 it’ll be sneaking back into the “pro” (broadcast) market. It’ll start creeping into some facilities throughout next year IMHO. We’ll see how OutPost Digital fares.
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[Craig Seeman] “Does this mean we’ll see things like an FCPX futures market as well?”
Depends — how many puts are you, Jeremy, Bill, and Evan Schectman prepared to write? I think you’d find a lot of buyers if you’re comfortable with the risk…
Cheers,
Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog – What I’m thinking when my workstation’s thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events -
[Craig Seeman] “I think Apple’s approach is to target the broad middle, with wide middle use attract developers and rise back up. “
That would be great. I’m not as optimistic about Apple’s approach, but I’d like you to be right, So, I hope you are,
[Craig Seeman] “[Chris Harlan] “BTW–it is my observation that there are FAR more post jobs than there were two decades ago. There is also MUCH more programing than there was two decades ago.”
I agree. I think the broad middle, corporate, both external and internal video production, is actually on the rise. We are a much more video centric/dependent society now. “
This goes for the entertainment industry, too. When I was going to film school, I never dreamed there would be as many jobs. Of course, I never dreamed there would be as many people trying to take them, either,
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[Craig Seeman] “I think Apple’s approach is to target the broad middle, with wide middle use attract developers and rise back up. “
That would be great. I’m not as optimistic about Apple’s approach, but I’d like you to be right, So, I hope you are,
[Craig Seeman] “[Chris Harlan] “BTW–it is my observation that there are FAR more post jobs than there were two decades ago. There is also MUCH more programing than there was two decades ago.”
I agree. I think the broad middle, corporate, both external and internal video production, is actually on the rise. We are a much more video centric/dependent society now. “
This goes for the high end, too. When I was going to film school,
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[Craig Seeman] “I don’t see a scenario where Avid survives in its current form. I could see either the entire company or MC product line being bought though.”
If Avid went butt-up tomorrow, Media Composer would continue to dominate the LA post world for the next half decade,
[Craig Seeman] “It’ll start creeping into some facilities throughout next year IMHO. We’ll see how OutPost Digital fares.”
THAT is extremely optimistic. If you actually want to gage growth you need to follow an example of a more disinterested company, not one that profits from lessons and evangelizes for the product. When someone neutral, like Trailer Park or Broadway video starts putting in seats, I’ll pay serious attention.
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[Walter Soyka] “Depends — how many puts are you, Jeremy, Bill, and Evan Schectman prepared to write? I think you’d find a lot of buyers if you’re comfortable with the risk…”
As a personal rather than brokered futures play I might well be interested.
Anyone who wants to can transfer me their software licenses at retail today along with a contract that specifies that if they EVER decide to use any future version of FCP-X — they contractually agree to do so only via buying back the license from me – at a multiple of the market price PLUS interest. Something maybe like what they still peddle to our teens. You know those rates roughly equal to their age, along with so many “annual fees, late fees, transaction fees, low balance fees, and “you didn’t take the free 6 hour on-line electronic banking ‘security training’ so we’re imposing a $5 monthly “risk” fee (a non-profit who’s board I chair got hit with THAT piece of brilliance last year!) – so it ends up being maybe a 32% annualized “sucker” rate?
Maybe I’ll get lucky and the “all pro all the time perfect X” of everyones dreams won’t arrive for a couple of years – if so, this play could be my “cruise into the endless sunset” retirement plan!
(grin)
“Before speaking out ask yourself whether your words are true, whether they are respectful and whether they are needed in our civil discussions.”-Justice O’Connor
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Propose name change to “SSDD”. Look it up.
Further to corporate psychology, I’m shocked (shocked!) that so little is known about “The Corporation”:
https://www.thecorporation.com/index.cfm?page_id=2Modern incorporated business entities and their invariable behaviour passes all the tests with flying colours to qualify as certifiably psychotic sociopaths. And this is the de facto governance we have as a civilization, since elected officials are all beholden to the financial sector — with the possible exception of energy producers – the worst violators.
I’m starting to pine for the days of Caligula, who was simply criminally insane.
jPo
You mean “Old Ben”? Ben Kenobi?
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