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Forums Business & Career Building This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching…

  • This article is a brilliant piece of work and the video is well worth watching…

  • Ron Lindeboom

    August 24, 2018 at 2:38 pm

    https://bigthink.com/philip-perry/47-of-jobs-in-the-next-25-years-will-disappear-according-to-oxford-university

    Check it out. It is a worthwhile article on the fast changing future…

    Best regards,

    Ronald Lindeboom
    CEO, Creative COW LLC

    Creativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.

  • Steve Kownacki

    August 27, 2018 at 12:47 pm

    This is an interesting article and the video has me even more confused. Certainly some “radical” ideas, but what we’re doing today were radical 50 years, even 25 years ago. For those of you that create jobs, or are responsible jobs, or increasing profits for shareholders, what say you? How does all this translate with an ever-growing population? Are we in for a commune society? Will we be going back to bartering? I have roughly 435,894,003 questions that come to mind.

    Thanks for introducing me to BigThink, Ron. My mind is absolutely never at rest now. 🙂

    Steve

  • Mike Cohen

    August 29, 2018 at 4:52 pm

    There has been plenty of reporting recently about automation and robots replacing many human jobs. To some degree this seems plausible – manufacturing automation is not new. AI-powered automation and something called RPA – Robotic Process Automation, are going to reduce the number of humans required in factories. Machines will predict when they need repairs before the defect occurs – Minority Report for robots. Having just re-watched 2001, I wonder how long it will take an AI computer to do something malicious.

    There are now robots that can pick crops, eliminating the migrant workers who do a lot of this work currently. As AI gets better Skynet can’t be far behind!

    However the notion that a computer and robot might replace a doctor or lawyer seems like science fiction. Surgical robots are very popular but those are controlled by a person. Like self-driving cars, there are so many subtle nuances that would be a challenge for a computer to recognize – currently. There may be a neural net in some MIT lab that will prove me wrong.

    50 to 100 years from now some of what the article proposes may be closer to reality. Most of us will be gone by then, so it will be up to future generations to learn what will really happen.

    Mike Cohen

  • Mark Suszko

    August 31, 2018 at 3:15 pm

    Actual doctors and lawyers may have some job security for a while yet, however….. there’s a glut of lawyers on the market, depressing their income potential dramatically. We graduate more new lawyers every year, than the total of all lawyers in Japan. That blows my mind.

    In fact, a lot of new law school graduates end up doing non-law work, in marketing and operations, the degree being more of a certification, conferring proof that they have a head for organizing and administrating. Paralegals are already feeling the pinch as AI “expert systems” have started replacing live workers in this field. What’s coming, and is already partly here, is that paralegals and young newly-graduated lawyers are less frequently setting up an office or joining a partnership, and becoming migrant workers.

    They now go to a place similar to a “boiler room” call center, where they are “rented” to process legal documents on a per-task basis to any company legal department that wants some scutwork processed. Corporations are “virtualizing” their legal departments with these out-of-house contractual firms. And that’s highly efficient compared to keeping a staff or lawyers on retainer… but it doesn’t put a dent in the law school and college student loans it took to get to this point for the worker. And that cubical lawyer isn’t building a career or professional reputation doing this kind of anonymous scrivnerism.

    Now just imagine a similar scenario for video editing. Wait. …you don’t have to. A laptop, a fast internet connection and cloud-based tools and storage… and you’re an editor, working from the dirt floor of a yurt somewhere. It’s already here. Working from home, you can be competing for edit jobs against people from Milwaukee to Mumbai. And can you survive at this career, if you want to live in Milwaukee on Mumbai levels of income.

    I foresee that our industry will stratify into a small layer of well-paying, high-performance “superstar” practitioners, and a low tier of cube farm fodder, telecommuting in to edit people’s wedding, iPhone and YouTube videos for them for a few cents an hour… and not much of a middle layer at all.

    Surgeons are going to be okay for some time yet, even with robotic assistants. But the armies of medical paper-pushers… that’s going to face extreme pressure from the health care and insurance industries to replace people with programmable systems. And as the population ages, you’ll find more unskilled and semi-skilled jobs for nursing home attendants and personal care technicians… but these already get paid minimum wage with few benefits.

    Will we get to a place with Universal Income? In some ways, we’re already there; it’s just not yet recognizable as such because it’s a patchwork web of inter-connecting programs and services, layers of them, each covering one small area of need or concern. Cost-efficiency, more than social concern, will likely push a consolidation and streamlining of this web of supports into one, simpler program covering everyone.

    We’re in for a few decades of high social disruption, as the economy adjusts to fewer workers and lower-paid workers and higher levels of unemployment/ unemployable people with a lot of leisure time, but not much money to spend enjoying it. Altruists might envision a new Renaissance or Enlightenment, as people with basic needs met and lots of time on their hands turn from useless toil to pursue education, art, culture…. and some of that is going to happen, I suppose, for a relative few…

    But the rest is going to look like the worst parts of “Idiocracy” and any of a couple dozen dystopian Sci Fi flicks.

  • Bill Davis

    September 2, 2018 at 7:39 pm

    It is.

    And this article is already more than a year old.

    One reason that the media may be MORE obsessed with politics than normal, is that these huge forces are coming at us that will shape the future — and nearly ALL of our political leaders are basically re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic rather than facing these type of real issues.

    Washington should have been testing models for universal income and other potential solutions and debating what happens if unemployment ever increases to “starving violent people” levels – instead of bitching about petty stuff.

    My friends in some of those “socialist” countries that get derided by some voices constantly, have sent me articles about their governments doing all sorts of tests starting LONG AGO, trying to figure out the balance between suppressing self determination and encouraging people to keep getting up and going out to do productive work — against public programs that focus on keeping huge numbers of people from starving.

    The debate isn’t easy when you don’t have ACTUAL data to back up your ideas. And the only way to GET such data is to develop models, run real-world trials, and test, test, test with real people.

    Cuz if too many people get too hungry for too long, civil order becomes a luxury even rich people won’t be able to afford.

    My 2 cents.

    Creator of XinTwo – https://www.xintwo.com
    The shortest path to FCP X mastery.

  • Ron Lindeboom

    September 3, 2018 at 4:40 am

    [Mike Cohen] “However the notion that a computer and robot might replace a doctor or lawyer seems like science fiction. “

    Already there are robots that are doing surgery. So the idea may not be as outlandish as it might first appear.

    Best regards,

    Ronald Lindeboom
    CEO, Creative COW LLC

    Creativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.

  • Ron Lindeboom

    September 3, 2018 at 4:48 am

    [Bill Davis] “The debate isn’t easy when you don’t have ACTUAL data to back up your ideas. And the only way to GET such data is to develop models, run real-world trials, and test, test, test with real people. “

    By the time that the figures are in, the changes will already be done and the naysayers will be a thing of the past. Already robots are replacing jobs across a wide range of occupations and I was just reading an article about robots that are doing surgery. Maybe that will be enough data to prove to you that the times they are a changing.

    I find it funny that the forward thinking shown at the introduction of FCPX a decade ago and which has been argued relentlessly since, is so quickly displaced by the same reticence to change that you bristled at, Bill. If you had waited for empirical quantified statistics before buying in, you’d have not been in the position you were so willing to assume.

    Best regards,

    Ronald Lindeboom
    CEO, Creative COW LLC

    Creativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.

  • Roger Van Duyn

    September 3, 2018 at 12:53 pm

    It depends upon what you mean by “robots are already doing surgery.” Like Mike said previously, a surgeon is operating the controls of the “robot” that’s making the incisions etc.

    It’s much like the guy in the booth controlling the switcher and joystick camera controls while the PTZ cameras film the event. In one sense, the cameras are filming the event. In another, it’s the guy in the booth. It’s the same way with robotic surgery.

    Is the robot that’s physically making the incisions etc. doing the surgery, or is the surgeon controlling the robot doing the surgery? The robot isn’t making the decisions. The surgeon is.

    Not sure how long it will be, if ever, before AI advances enough to have a completely autonomous device doing surgery all by itself. Driverless cars still have a lot of problems to solve. A surgical robot isn’t like a driverless car. Rather, it’s more like a device that augments the human surgeon. Perhaps that would be a better approach for cars too. Design systems that help the driver drive better.

    I don’t like the term Artificial Intelligence. In reality, it’s a simulation of intelligence. It’s still human intelligence designing the algorhithms that the automation follows that appears to be an artificial intelligence in operation. The only creative thought in the field of artificial intelligence still comes from human beings.

    But, your overall point is correct. What will all us human beings do without meaningful work? And the pay for meaningful work?

    Roger

  • Ron Lindeboom

    September 3, 2018 at 5:50 pm

    Maybe you guys missed this one, yeah? Surgery performed by robots without doctors at the controls — from the Newsweek article reporting from Children’s National Health System (CNHS) and Johns Hopkins University…

    “Humans make mistakes. Even surgeons, who train intensively for years and adhere to exacting protocols, are not infallible. But what if these doctors could pool their knowledge and experiences together and create an optimal surgical standard of care, to be carried out by machines? Computers, after all, make precise calculations effortlessly and consistent motions without tiring. That’s the idea behind surgical robots, which may soon perform most surgeries, from sewing up tiny wounds to executing heart procedures. Many of these operations are, in fact, already accomplished with the assistance of robots, with machines like the da Vinci Surgical System mimicking every move a surgeon makes as she controls the tools from afar. But a recent test conducted by researchers at Children’s National Health System (CNHS) and Johns Hopkins University suggests that robots in the operating room may soon go a step further, performing on soft tissue completely on their own, from start to finish. The surgeons, meanwhile, would simply stand by and watch. The Smart Tissue Autonomous Robot, or simply STAR, successfully completed open bowel surgery in pigs, leaving the animals healthy and without complications.”

    https://www.newsweek.com/2016/05/20/robot-soft-tissue-surgery-pig-bowels-455765.html

    It’s only going to speed up and become more common in the days ahead but we can all pretend otherwise.

    Best regards,

    Ronald Lindeboom
    CEO, Creative COW LLC

    Creativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.

  • Ron Lindeboom

    September 3, 2018 at 5:58 pm

    Then there’s this report from FORBES entitled “Prepare Yourselves, Robots Will Soon Replace Doctors In Healthcare.”

    The only part of this that remains to be seen is how soon is soon?

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/haroldstark/2017/07/10/prepare-yourselves-robots-will-soon-replace-doctors-in-healthcare/#14d3ac4352b5

    Best regards,

    Ronald Lindeboom
    CEO, Creative COW LLC

    Creativity is a process wherein the student and the teacher are located in the same individual.

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