Think the Mac is dead? I think not…

[Scott Sheriff]

We tend to think that editors are the only market for Mac Pro. But science, engineering and educational users are a big part of the Mac Pro world. I suspect that Apple might want the prestige of these users, and keep making the Pro just for them as a loss leader, if that were the case.

Scott Sheriff
Director
SST Digital Media
https://www.sstdigitalmedia.com

[Dan Brockett]

I don’t know Ben. I saw some charts on a Mac fan website that showed that over the past two years, Macs as a proportion of sales for Apple have fallen very significantly, replaced obviously by billions of dollars of income from iPhones.

From a larger perspective, the migration of apps like iMovie to the new iPhone and the app store in general, combined with cloud computing, point to the end of the age of the PC. The new PC is probably going to evolve to something closer to the iPad and iPhone, Android, etc. type of devices. AVID demonstrated a remote editing over the web application at NAB this year. It isn’t that Macs won’t be around, but I think that we will continue to see the slow erosion of features, inputs and pro features on Macs because obviously the pros aren’t where the big money is, it is the masses buying iPhones, iTunes and the App store that are driving Apple forward.

This trend is not limited to just Macs either. People who have been trumpeting that the age of the PC are coming to a rapid close say that it is all PCs, not just Macs. It is true when you think about it. Who needs computers anymore when you can communicate via phone, text, Twitter with your handheld device and you can consume media on your small little iPad type of device? Those two operations cover probably 95% of all PC users. Doesn’t a Mac Pro tower with its massive size and weight, tethered to huge monitors begin to sound somewhat like an anachronism?

Not saying that PC/Macs are going away in the next year or two but the writing is plainly on the wall that the era of the PC is drawing to an end except for a small contingent of users who may find that the machines that they need may no longer be made.

Perhaps we will eventually become like Cuba with the classic American cars, we will all be nursing pristine antique G5s and Mac Pros because Apple stopped making them. A huge black market for parts, software and manuals will spring up on Ebay to keep them still humming? Shades of my days with the Amiga! That was another machine that users wanted to keep going more than the manufacturer(s) did.

I do see the ability to control and manipulate media will become more and more ingrained in consumer and prosumer products like the new iPhone. At some point, most everything that takes big iron and lots of third party software to accomplish will be able to be done by anyone with a small, portable and cheap device. Moore’s Law still applies and doing almost everything in software will just keep on evolving. Remember ICE cards for your Mac and AE plug-ins? Seems like ancient history but it was only, what, ten years ago?

Dan

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[Louis Mclellan]

If the people want something bad enough, someone will supply it. I think the market for Mac Pros are still there for a few more years, but with improvements in the speed and HD space of the Imac and mac mini, who knows? Don’t count the mac pro out yet.

Editor, Sound Designer, Stop-Motion Animator, Lighting, and Pack Mule

[Rafael Amador]

Dan,
You are talking about the going down of the “Personal Computer”.
A Mac Pro never have ben a Personal Computer, but a production tool.To think that there is no more need of computing power makes no sense. Fast, powerful computers that may need to be working 24 hours a day, 7 days a week can’t be replaced at the moment. If an iPhone can runs iMovie, means nothing for a professional.
They may be selling less MP (perhaps because the last release was 15 months ago), but sure, they are no losing money. A waist of money would be to stop making them and trow away 30 years of developments and a solid market.
rafel

http://www.nagavideo.com

[Nicholas Bierzonski]

IMHO…

I agree with Rafael. I don’t think the average user needs to update to the latest Mac Pro.

Are you telling me that people who bought a G5 5 years ago to mess around with photoshop, itunes and email aren’t happy?

I think average users that bought mac’s are happy and see no reason to update. This could account for some low sales numbers.

Professionals in the media business continually have to update to stay on the tech curve. We either stay ahead or on it.

-Nicholas Bierzonski
Senior Editor/DVD Author/Java Boy
http://www.finalfocusvideo.com

[Dan Brockett]

Hi Rafael:

I agree that they cannot be replaced this moment. But the signs are there that they will be replaced soon. A pro friend of mine who does pretty high end work just bought a new 27″ i7 iMac instead of a Mac Pro. Most of his work is on the web and he felt that the extra capabilities of the Mac Pro were going to be a waste of money. Right now, fast and powerful is needed to make professional video/film but that need is eroding, just as the pro market is eroding.

You said that iMovie on the iPhone shouldn’t matter to a pro, but I disagree. Pros should definitely be aware of this trend because it signals more clients doing more things by themselves. I have seen three posts over at the LAFCPUG website this week of producers doing “legitimate” shows that they shot themselves on a Flip or a $500.00 consumer camera. Shows and pilots that are actually being pitched to networks. They hired a real editor to try to assemble the mess that they shot but the entire crew that would have gained a few days of work on the shoot to do it professionally? They were never called. Producers will always try to do things as cheaply as possible, which is why you have 22 year old interns as editors in a lot of places. What would you rather do, edit commercials and shows or get coffee for the boss? 😉

As pros, our fallback position since the digital revolution began about 10 years ago has always been, “yes, you can get a camera and shoot it, edit it yourself but it will look like a home movie.” That’s the problem now, for an ever growing cadre of clients, that is good enough.

Don’t know if you are in the U.S., but here in California, the Canadian board of tourism is running a commercial campaign that plays constantly. The commercials are home videos, shot by tourists of fun experiences in Canada. A glacier falling into the ocean, a seal hopping up on a person’s kayak, etc. No VO, no graphics, no music. Just a home video clip and a visit Canada title card. Ten years ago, these commercials would have been a joke. Today, they are business as usual. What is ironic is that they probably bought the rights to these home video clips for next to nothing, added a title card and legalized the clips and run them. The air buy is millions of dollars, they run these things a lot here. Sad to say, but the future is pointing toward not needing fast and powerful computers and fast and powerful is a relative thing. A lot of people say that the processor in the iPad is fast and powerful and for a consumer product, it is.

Many, many clients now are just “doing it themselves” and quality be damned. The immense popularity of YouTube and Vimeo mean that people don’t need to see RED 4k footage on a 107″ plasma for it to be acceptable to them anymore.

I am convinced that towers like the Mac Pro will eventually fade away. And it may be sooner than later, although who knows exactly when.

Dan

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[Dan Brockett]

Hi Nicholas:

I am looking at the big picture here. And the trend is that sales of powerful, large desktops, both PCs and Macs, are plummeting over the past three years and will continue to plummet.

Not saying that they won’t be killed off right away but eventually, buying a tower will become kind of “weird” and soon after that, the companies will roll some of the features into smaller, cheaper and lighter computers like the iMac. Apple is already doing that with the 27″ i7 iMac, right? That is a serious processor for a consumer computer. We are already seeing that Apple is not serious about keeping up with the technology curve on the Mac Pros, 15 months is an eternity in computer time.

More and more users who used to buy towers are now buying iMacs and laptops. More and more post facilities are going under, I can’t tell you how many I used to use here in LA that no longer exist. It used to be, “why go to a post house, when for $15k, I can have what the post house has here in my office or home?” Now it is evolving to, “why should I have a $15k editi bay in my office or home when I can do most of what is needed on a $2,000.00 iMac or laptop?” It is the next logical step.

Dan

Providing value added material to all of your favorite DVDs

[Mark Raudonis]

Dan,

From reading your posts, it sounds like you’re a “glass half empty” kind of guy.

Following your logic, the post production industry is going to wither and die tomorrow. There will be no more high quality work done anywhere, and if you’re over 21, you’re too old to work in this business.

I see a different future!

The tools are ever changing. I didn’t start out my career editing on a Mac, and I’d bet when all is said and done, I’ll be using something else years from now. So what! Who knows what kind of developments are brewing in Cupertino or elsewhere. I’d rather contemplate the challenges of editing my next show, than worry about what kind of computer I’ll be using.

Mark

[Neil Hurwitz]

I have not seen the commercials you reference,
But I think the idea is brilliant.
If the footage was shot by tourists and is acknowledged as such
then a viewer at home can Invision themselves in the exact same
spot and say to themselves “Oh Baby I want to see that” and
actually have a real shot at doing it. Not too many people can
afford to rent helicopters and fly over beaches and volcanoes.

Neil Hurwitz

[Dan Brockett]

I totally agree with you that they are effective, but I know for a fact (I read Boards Mag) that what motivated the agency was that the concept was ultra cheap, not that it was that brilliant. Luckily for them, it turned out to be effective or they wouldn’t run them so much. But ad people, corporations, networks, the main factor driving media today is doing it cheaper and cheaper, which eventually means doing it yourself and not hiring pros for the most part.

I am writing a couple of 3D articles for some magazines and websites and for all of the mania surrounding Avatar and dual RED beam splitter rigs, the hottest thing in 3D right now is the Panasonic AG-3DA1. It follows my mantra, “faster, cheaper, smaller, lighter, simpler” but mainly cheaper. What does a dual beam splitter RED 3D rig cost? $150k, $200k when all of the toys are in place? What does the AG-3DA1 cost? $21k.

Computers will go the same way, smaller, cheaper, faster, lighter and simpler.

Dan

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