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[Theory + Math] Long Term Storage Strategy
Hypothesis: Long-term digital storage is not cost effective when working with a data set that is growing significantly every year.
Up front, I am not claiming to say that LTO or RDX disks are useless, I’m just trying to show that cost-effectiveness is not a good reason to go with those solutions. Also, my research is very incomplete, and I’m hoping to get some feedback and more info from those who have been around for a while.
I created a spreadsheet with these assumptions:
Data storage costs (consumer grade) declining at* : Power(10,-.2502*(C1-1980)+6.304)
Data storage costs (enterprise) average cost is some multiple of the consumer cost ** : 22x
Data growth per year *** : 30%
Data storage current need ***: 100TBWith those assumptions, I ran the numbers for a few different cases:
1. Completely replace storage every year to meet new growth need of current year
2. Completely replace storage every two years to meet new growth need of next two years
3. Completely replace storage every three years to meet new growth need of next three years
4. Completely replace storage every four years to meet new growth need of next four years
5. Completely replace storage every five years to meet new growth need of next five years
6. Completely replace storage every ten years to meet new growth need of next ten years
7. Completely replace storage every fifteen years to meet new growth need of next fifteen yearsCan you guess which of these is most cost effective? (Results at bottom)
The cheapest total cost over 15 years is to replace every 3rd year (2nd year was close too).
Even more interesting is that it is cheaper to completely replace every year than to replace every four years. This is because in order to last four years, you need to buy four years worth of storage at today’s high prices as opposed to the future’s cheaper prices.
And if you try to buy enough storage to last you ten or fifteen years, you are a fool, it will cost you 4-10 times more just for the “convenience” of never upgrading. Meanwhile your storage will be slower and more difficult to access.Now there is of course some flaws to this model — most people don’t COMPLETELY replace their storage when they upgrade. For us we typically have two or three generations of storage at a time. I haven’t run the numbers on that, but I hope to figure it out soon.
Also I didn’t factor in the reduced cost of LTO into the equation because I didn’t have as solid of info on cost-decline of LTO and how that relates to cost of disk, but the costs would have to be SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper, which is not always the case.
If anyone wants a peek at my spreadsheet, let me know 🙂
Please send me your corrections or questions, just please don’t flame me too hard (looking at you Zelin!)RESULTS
Replace Total Cost
1 yr : 285795
2 yr : 215199
3 yr : 213276
4 yr : 307036
5 yr : 360946
10 yr : 823593
15 yr : 3057945* Cost Per Gig Consumer Taken from https://www.mkomo.com/cost-per-gigabyte
** This is a total guess, can someone provide reliable research on this?
*** Just made this up as a test case