Brian is correct about codecs. CODEC stands for “enCOder/DECoder” and are used to encode video when rendering as well as decoding video when playing. The size of a file is determined by the efficiency of the compression that the codec uses along with the bitrate that it’s being asked to compress. More efficient codecs can encode higher bitrates (and thus higher quality) with the same size as less efficient codecs. So Stephen is right about bitrate being a big part of the equation but codecs play a part too.
Brian is also correct that the only way to limit the size of a rendered file is by using a calculator and doing tests with different codecs using different bitrates unless you have a program that does this for you.
The original poster (Bryan) said he has Sony Vegas Movie Pro 8.0 which does NOT exist so I assume he has Move Studio 8 which is why there is no Custom button in the render dialog. You will need some other program to encode your videos if you need to use custom templates or purchase Vegas Pro 8. Movie Studio does not allow you to customize rendering templates.
~jr
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