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So if Avid goes under, then what?
Branching off from the thread about Avid selling off its consumer line of products and seemingly gloomy financial outlook (https://forums.creativecow.net/readpost/335/38711), what happens if Avid can’t turn it around in the next year or two?
Do you think a larger company, like Blackmagic, will buy Avid and keep it going as a subsidiary? Will Avid just die meaning that FCP Legend and Avid MC would’ve both EOL’d in a 24-36mo window? If that’s the case obviously people will be able to coast for a while but this really makes the field wide open for FCPX, PPro and I’d say even Lightworks and Media 100 would have a real shot at upping their market share.
Some people complain that there’s too much armchair speculation of Apple so why don’t we take this great opportunity to put Avid in the cross hairs.
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59 Replies
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I think Blackmagic taking over AVID would be interesting. It would be a loss for sure if we lost AVID, but we still have Final Cut (as long as Apple continues to improve it), Premiere CS6 (which I love), Vegas, Edius, ect. ect.
We still have it pretty good.
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MC/Symphony is a valuable commodity but it’s in a very small niche along with Unity/Isis. ProTools is also valuable and I suspect has bigger base. Somebody will pick those up. Although I’m honestly not sure about Unity/Isis.
That Avid is pretty much debt free is a noteworthy reason why they’ve been able to sustain the loses for so long. Of course they could do a major rethink on their business model.
Adobe has had some bumps along the way as well but their management seems very creative when it comes to making changes in their business model. They also have a deep product mix so some divisions can sustain transition periods.
Avid doesn’t seem to have much wiggle room beyond their lack of debt. Do they have a magic bullet to increase Unity/Isis sales? Can they bolster ProTools hardware sales? I just don’t see a solution for them. I’m curious if someone can imagine them turning around with that business model and product line.
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Wouldn’t Autodesk be a better fit?
They don’t seem to have an in with the Hardware side of things.
We have a few seats in Maya and use MC/Symphony and Pro Tools for finishing.
Of course I say Black Magic second 🙂 -
Having recently tried to use PP CS6 for a Red RAW feature film, I can tell you that nobody (with the possible exception of Lightworks) is ready for Hollywood primetime. There were so many things I tried to do in PP that I was told (and it was confirmed by the brass) simply couldn’t be done yet: like matching back to audio timecode, or aux timecode. AAF exports from merged clips, no shared projects. Properly sorting picons in bin view. Not to mention the niggly little inconveniences, such as the trim tool not working the way I want it to. For all the groaning about Avid, the fact is there simply IS NOT another package with the depth of features for Hollywood narratives.
If Avid goes under, Media Composer would definitely find a home somewhere, because it’s simply the only tool available that does everything Media Composer does and Hollywood has come to expect.
Chris Conlee
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Hello,
since Autodesk already owns Softimage XSI which has been developed by Microsoft hand-in-hand
with DigitalStudio (now AvidDS) I think Autodesk would be a fit at least for the XSI/DS product line.
Avid’s absolutely under-priced sale of XSI (sharing the interface and parts of algorithm of DS)
is something I never understood!At the other hand I don’t see any benefits for Autodesk at the moment,
now they are pushing SMac. Autodesk doesn’t have a demand for Hardware,
and Avid’s algorithms aren’t the latest either. The only thing Autodesk
could benefit of is Audio, like Eric already said.But I don’t see any remarkable synergy effects if Blackmagic acquired Avid either!
What should BMD do with old MC-algorithms (those under the hood) and over-priced server-hardware,
that couldn’nd be converted well into easy to use and fair-priced consumer style products;
thats what BMD usually does.It would make much, much more sense to me if BMD would acquire TheFoundry!
Imagine a DaVinci, with NLE timeline functionality of (the now EOL’d) Storm,
nodes and algorithm from NukeX, and format conversions from Teranex.
These are state-of-the-art ultra-highend technologies that could lead into the ultimate Finishing-App.
BMD’s and TheFoundry’s technologies would be a perfect fit!Avid has a huge amount of assets. And economically it would make more sense
if these assets were sold separately for the highest bid.Best regards,
Bernhard -
I completely forgot about DS, goes to show you how deep their marketing is with that app 🙁
If anyone acquires Avid, itll be just maintenance the first few years then maybe some new innovations.
Last year I met up with our Avid regional sales (mid western Canada) and I asked him how they were doing with the Apple debacle. He flat honestly said they are not making squat. Sure they are getting some free marketing from the Twits and the Cows but no push in the black.
It didnt stop us from adding an extra MC seat and then recently Symphony (crossgrade) but does make us a little leery about they future.
we hope them the best since we all know that competition is good. -
Nothing really unexpected here. Makes sense to rationalize the product portfolio.
Staffing reductions would logically follow that.
Impossible to know what is going on behind closed doors but check out the info online about Avid Sphere. If that came out soon Avid would steal an important and valuable market place and revitalize ISIS and Interplay.Pat Horridge
Technical Director, Trainer, Avid Certified Instructor
VET
Production Editing Digital Media Design DVD
T +44 (0)20 7505 4701 | F +44 (0)20 7505 4800 | E pat@vet.co.uk |
http://www.vet.co.uk | Lux Building 2-4 Hoxton Square London N1 6US -
Avid is much more than just MC, there’s also Newscutter, DS etc etc.
What might happen is that Avid might concede that MC is a niche product and start to charge a niche price.
We’ve all swallowed the kool aid spread by Apple and the like that pro software can be cheap and thus editing can be cheap. That was supposedly going to cause all the big iron facilities to disappear – which hasn’t happened and turn’s out that might not be such a good thing after all.
Lets not forget that the cheapening of tools by companies like Apple has driven down the perception of talent needed to drive that software.
Personally if Avid did put up the cost of software to a level that made sense for them then bloody good to. Our industry has been cheapened by cheap tools and quality has suffered.
Michael Sanders
London Based DP/Editor -
First of all, Avid isn’t going anywhere. The video edit software, ProTools, ISIS/Unity (shared storage), Euphonix and news room products all seem to contribute equal percentages to the bottom line. So if your view is only as a Media Composer editor or Pro Tools mixer – or for that matter, an FCP editor looking on from the outside – you really haven’t got the full picture of the company. They still have millions in the bank, so financials are more an issue of burn-rate and keeping the stock market happy.
Whether or not MC is an ideal editor for the individual user is probably of most concern to the folks who post on this forum. OTOH, if you are an enterprise user, like broadcast stations, large post facilities, et al, then FCP X and Premiere Pro aren’t in the same league for satisfying those needs.
As far as the marketability of these products, take a look at Quantel. They have restructured over the years and run a fraction of the workforce that Avid does. They have focused solely on the pro market. Although they have a small footprint, they are still the dominant company in DI, Stereo3D post and also offer leading solutions for news editing and cloud editing.
If you are going to be a pro-oriented manufacturer, then you have to structure the outflow to match the intake.
– Oliver
Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com -
[Eric Santiago] “He flat honestly said they are not making squat.”
Yes, that’s been well documented in various financial analyst reports. They actually lost money since $999 for the crossgrade, is a “loss leader.” That would mean the Symphony crossgrade would be more so. Avid is in one respect like Apple, in that their software is really used to sell hardware (and services). NLE sales is down to about 12% of their revenue and declining.
The problem is that MC/Symphony may not be doing enough to sell Unity/Isis systems, where they do make more money. The problem is, I think, overtime the demand of Unity/Isis may be declining compared to less expensive options. Of course some facilities really want/need that front end management/hardware/service but I think those facilities are a declining share of the video post market.
While Avid may be shedding loses as their consumer product where major losers but even their handling of the sale may be questionable reasoning. The division brought in over $90 million yes sold for under $20 million. Some feel it should have been sold for more. Of course Avid’s motive was probably to shed the 20% of their employees tied to such products, which would result in some savings.
Philip Hodgetts wrote a bit about this.
https://www.philiphodgetts.com/2012/07/avid-opposite-motley-fool-analysts-advice/[Eric Santiago] “It didnt stop us from adding an extra MC seat and then recently Symphony (crossgrade) but does make us a little leery about they future.”
Given that Avid is virtually debt free they can hang on for a couple of more years but they still don’t show any business model that will turn them around. They keep shedding losses. Their “leaner” company may starve to death. I’d give them 2-3 years. They are a prime candidate for being sold given they are debt free.
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