please explain the new business model to me

[David Roth weiss]

Bob, everyone in this “business” shared the same wish, to become an artist, and now everyone is an artist, unfortunately starving artists. The old saying be careful what you wish for definitely applies to this “business.”

David Roth Weiss
Director/Editor/Colorist & Workflow Consultant
David Weiss Productions
Los Angeles

David is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.

[Andrew Kimery]

I feel like you almost answered your own question. What happens when everyone has access to pen and paper? Or a camera? A guitar? A computer? A fully functioning kitchen? Easy access to an affordable hardware store brimming with useful tools and building materials?

Things change. Some areas expand, some contract, some totally disappear, some completely new ones pop up. For people that built their business on scarcity of gear (I’m the only one in town with this thing) and/or scarcity of operational knowledge (I’m the only one in town that knows what buttons to push to make this thing do stuff) they are toast unless they move on to a new area where scarcity of gear and/or operational knowledge can still be fruitfully monetized.

A lot of the low hanging fruit is going to continue to disappear but just because people have the tools to edit doesn’t mean they want to edit. And even if they want to edit they might not be very good. And even if they are good at it they might not have the time to do it. Most of my neighbors have landscaping services take care of their yards because they don’t want to do it, not because they can’t do it. If you just need your yard mowed Bobby next door can probably do that, but if you want your rose bushes properly taken care of, the limbs trimmed on that 50ft tree outback, and recommendations for drought tolerant perennials that do well in the sun and don’t die down to their roots every winter then you might need to hire a professional. 😉

[Bob Zelin] “With the exception of hi end shows and features, how does the majority of the people on these forums continue to earn a living ?
“

For me personally, I guess mostly non-hi end TV shows, indie documentaries, and web content (both indie and for big players like Yahoo or Viacom). Just thinking about less traditional types of gigs, I know editors working at Hearst media (web content), the NFL Network (content for the cable channel and the web), Hulu (original content) and Amazon (original content). I’ve seen video editing job postings for Snapchat, Activision, Electronic Arts, and the developer of League of Legends (who’s name I can’t remember off the top of my head). Do they all pay top dollar? No, but I only mentioned things that, IIRC, paid at least decently.

There’s a whole lot of content being created that aren’t looking for scrubs, but of course there is the age of problem of getting the work that you know is out there somewhere.

[Joseph W. bourke]

I have three words to say to you Bob: “Talent Not Included”. Although the ground may be shifting under us all in terms of the way the market is working, it will still be a case of talent winning out.

There’s always a perceived threat when technology gets democratized, but it always boils down to talent (and experience). I work in a fairly small market in New Hampshire (not counting my clients worldwide through the web), and when a new production house showed up, I saw it as a real threat to my industrial video work. Sure enough, a few of the clients I had in my sights were grabbed by this guy. But only for one production – his lack of ability to shoot computer screens (I use screen capture), as well as lack of knowledge on how to do it properly, plus poor graphic design skills, and insisting on doing everything himself, relegated him to churning through the clients in the area – he never got a second production. Now I rest easy – until the next one who can afford the equipment comes along.

As Red Adair once said: “If you think it’s expensive to hire a professional to do the job, wait until you hire an amateur.”

Joe Bourke
Owner/Creative Director
Bourke Media
http://www.bourkemedia.com

[Jeff Kirkland]

As others have said, it’s not the tools – it’s how you use them.

Word processors are available to everyone, and pretty much everyone knows how to use one, but not everyone can write. And, as mentioned above, not everyone wants to write.

The same will be (or actually has been for a long time) true of video. I sell my creativity, my experience, and my ability to deliver what you want on time and on budget. For most of my clients, what equipment or software I use to get there is completely irrelevant.

I personally find having clients with some production knowledge a good thing. It lets me communicate and collaborate with them on a higher level, and I find they have a better idea and acceptance of why I’m quoting a particular dollar value for a project.

The real change is that it will be (is) no longer considered a job for the ‘cool kids’ – It’ll just be an everyday thing like gardening and house-keeping.

Jeff Kirkland | Video Producer | Southern Creative Media | Melbourne Australia
http://www.southerncreative.com.au | G+: https://gplus.to/jeffkirkland | Twitter: @jeffkirkland

[John Rofrano]

[Bob Zelin] “(again, I mean EVERYONE, like everyone knows how to use Microsoft WORD) -“

Yes, but EVERYONE doesn’t have the talent to be a best selling author!

Just because uncle Bob owns a video camera, doesn’t mean you should ask him to video tape your wedding.

It’s just like Formula 1 racing where everyone has the same equiptment it comes down to the crew and driver.

When everyone has the same video equiptment, all that’s left as a differentiator is:

TALENT!

…and that’s how it should be.

~jr

http://www.johnrofrano.com
http://www.vasst.com

[Bob Zelin]

Of course, Andrew, you have answered my question, more than you know, which was my point.

You state “or with a camera” – unless you are Vincent LaForet, how many people can make a REAL living (you know, real money, not 35 grand a year) as a photographer today. With products from Canon and Nikon (and others) that even novices like me can use, to make amazing photos, why hire a professional photographer.

You state “a guitar” – I have recently learned how to play guitar, and am playing occational Sundays at some local bars – it’s fun, and we are ok, and you know what we get paid – ZERO. We do it for fun. Just like most bands, just like most PROFESSIONAL bands – who make very little money. We are not the Eagles. And as you probably are aware, it is very difficult for any musician to make a REAL living (kind of like photographers).

You state ” a fully functional kitchen” – we eat out all the time, and are friendly with many chefs, and sous chefs – the reality of this, is that unless you are a owner/partner, you are not making a lot of money – let me be clear, you are not making as much money as a senior video editor at a professional post production facility in LA, even if you are a executive chef at a big restaurant in LA – not unless you are the owner.

You state “an affordable hardware store” – once again, the manager at a Home Depot, or Lowes or Ace Hardware is not making the same money as a senior editor at a post production facility. If you are a senior editor, or a senior graphics artist at a company that is working on ad agency work, you are making A LOT more money than the guy who MANAGES the local Home Depot.

Unless you OWN YOUR BUSINESS – how much does any landscaper make ?

I bothered to write this boring post, because you mentioned one of my MAJOR clients in your post. They recently fired their senior editor, who was AMAZING (but made too much money) and replaced him with a younger guy who is not as good, but gets the job done, and charges half as much.

And that’s my point. Randy Ubilos article specifically stated the target audience that he wanted. The idea is to get EVERYONE to start doing this. It’s certainly right for Apple – it’s just intimidating for “us”. The reality that ANYONE can do what we do.

In the same way that major recordings, major feature films, major musical acts, major TV shows, major magazines, major photo shoots, will always continue, the vast majority of the work available for this will change dramatically. It has already for most of these industries – and because Creative Cow is about the video industry, I bothered to write this boring post. The day that you are happy that you can charge $100 for a full day of editing, with all of your hardware to produce a finished show, and be happy with that – well, I guess that day, I won’t bother to read these forums anymore.

Bob Zelin

Bob Zelin
Rescue 1, Inc.
bobzelin@icloud.com

[Oliver Peters]

I really don’t think the business model has changed for content creators, except that the cost of entry is cheaper. Therefore, more competitors, but also more creators using video in innovative ways that were never possible in the past.

However, the big drop is in the need for the middle tier of support personnel – primarily in facilities. Unfortunately that means people who installed and supported TV and facility infrastructures. There’s not much need for wiring, VTRs, etc. anymore. If you are in a large facility, those skills have been replace by IT needs. TV stations don’t really have the need for much of an engineering department anymore. They do need IT specialists. In smaller shops, pretty much neither is required. Large storage set-ups used to require system integrator or staff engineering support. Now, you plug a Promise array in via Thunderbolt and you are set.

On the production side, not that much will change. Yes, you can get by with a smaller crew, but then you always could. If you want to mount a more sophisticated production, it still requires lighting, craft services, sound, make-up, etc. regardless of how small the camera is.

On the post side there are still specialties that require skills – edit, sound, graphics, VFX, color, etc. Some will get by without it, but others won’t. Take a look at web development or print production. These could long be done by one person, however, there are still plenty of specialty shops with a distributed talent pool.

Ultimately parts of the industry will change and even go away, but many others will still exist in the future.

– Oliver

Oliver Peters Post Production Services, LLC
Orlando, FL
http://www.oliverpeters.com

[Gary Huff]

[Bob Zelin] “I bothered to write this boring post, because you mentioned one of my MAJOR clients in your post. They recently fired their senior editor, who was AMAZING (but made too much money) and replaced him with a younger guy who is not as good, but gets the job done, and charges half as much.

And that’s my point. Randy Ubilos article specifically stated the target audience that he wanted. The idea is to get EVERYONE to start doing this. It’s certainly right for Apple – it’s just intimidating for “us”. The reality that ANYONE can do what we do. “

I can see where you are coming from. That a professional might do it “better” is entirely subjective to the person making the money decision who may not have any taste. They may think that they got more than their money’s worth from a nephew who is just messing around than what they would have paid someone who has to make a living at it.

The final product may actually be inferior, but if the client ultimately does not care about the difference, then there’s nothing you can really do.

[Andrew Kimery]

[Bob Zelin] “And that’s my point. Randy Ubilos article specifically stated the target audience that he wanted. The idea is to get EVERYONE to start doing this. It’s certainly right for Apple – it’s just intimidating for “us”. The reality that ANYONE can do what we do.
“

When I was younger (either college age or recently out of school) I came across the famous “fat girl in Ohio” quote from Francis Ford Coppola. When asked about the future of film he said, “Suddenly one day some little fat girl in Ohio is gonna be the new Mozart and make a beautiful film with her little father’s camera-corder. And for once the so-called professionalism about movies will be destroyed forever, and it’ll really become an art form.”

My initial reaction was one of fear. “What the hell am I going to do if everyone has their own camera and can edit their own movies?” The more I thought about it though the more I agreed with Mr. Coppola. It was inevitable and it was for the best. That realization made me rethink how I perceive what I do. I don’t operate software, I provide solutions to problems. Is that a harder sell than just saying I know how to use the software? Sure, but they people I want to work with typically know the difference and are looking for people like me, not people that just push buttons. If the job and/or expectations are so low that a monkey or a robot can do it then a monkey or a robot should do it.

I got into the industry in the midst of the ‘DV revolution’ so the “everyone has FCP and a DV camera” pandemonium had just about started. For me turmoil and rapid change have always been the norm so maybe that’s why I don’t fret over the turmoil and rapid change. Maybe if I was older I’d have nostalgia for the job security provided by linear bays and BetaSP but I’m not, so I don’t (though one of my first jobs was shooting on BetaSP and did involve deck-to-deck editing in the field). Maybe when I’m 55 I’ll be like, “Well this sucks… it was way better in my day..” No idea. Much of the work I have done though wouldn’t have been possible 15yrs ago so I can’t really be mad at disruptive forces when those same disruptive forces have been such a big part of my career.

Besides the already disrupted industry I entered into I also moved to Los Angeles specifically because it was an over-saturated, hyper competitive market place that would most likely chew me up, spit me out and leave me a jaded, burned-out husk of a human being. There’s so many editors here that you can literally post an ad looking for a super tease specialist with Bravo credits on female driven, ensemble cast docu-dramas and the post supervisor will most likely find someone that meets all the criteria. There’s also so much desperation (and dreaming) that you can put a gig on CraigsList that promises $50, pizza and exposure and 200 people will apply. It’s either horrible or awesome depending on your personality. I’m not really a thrill seeker, but this lifestyle is nearly a requirement for the work that I want to do so I roll with it and mutter the Serenity Prayer on days I want to mimic Michael Douglas’ character in “Falling Down”. 11 years in* and so far, so good, BTW (knock on wood).

Changes? Bring it. Challenges? More please. The inevitable future shouldn’t be intimidating but motivational. Anyone can do what we do but the sticking point is how well can they do it? How fast can they do it? How do they handle adverse situations (and adverse situations are inevitable)? If I can’t offer anything more than college kids and soccers mom then I have done something horrible, horribly wrong. If employers/clients feel that college kids and soccer moms can adequately do my job then it’s probably a sign that I’m no longer a good fit with that employer/client, and I should be moving along anyway. Fincher, when talking about pitching “Aliens 3” to the studio, said something along the lines of, “I brought them a teacup but they wanted a beer mug.” Sometimes paths diverge.

I’m sorry to hear about your Senior Editor friend Bob, but that situation is pretty common across corporate America, not just where our industry and corporate America overlap. At one time or another I’ve worked for nearly all the major media companies (Newscorp/FOX, Disney/ABC, Viacom, NBC, etc.,) when companies get to that size employees are just warm bodies with ID numbers. I’ve seen great teams dismantled time and time again not because of performance but because the numbers on a spreadsheet someplace didn’t add up. It is what it is though, and it’s one reason I prefer being freelance. As a freelancer I know I have to hustle all the time but if you are staff (especially staff for a long time) and you get cut loose you are abruptly alone, drifting out to sea without warning and without a network.

-Andrew

*It’s actually more than 11 years but that’s a whole other story.

[Tim Wilson]

[Andrew Kimery] “Maybe when I’m 55 I’ll be like, “Well this sucks… it was way better in my day..” No idea. Much of the work I have done though wouldn’t have been possible 15yrs ago so I can’t really be mad at disruptive forces when those same disruptive forces have been such a big part of my career.”

Having just turned 55, I too have gotten where I’ve gotten through constant disruption.

As has Bob, a few years older.

And really, the COW is only here because of disruption. The guys in their 50s and even 60s who were here 20 years ago when it started — believe me, these guys have lived through more change than you can imagine. They’re still around because, like you, they thrive on relentless chaos.

That’s not at all Bob’s point.

“It’s not the tools it’s the creativity” also misses the point. His example of the senior editor underscores that. He was anything but a tool jockey. That guy HAD the creativity.

The thing is, for the first 15+ years of the disruption — I’m saying from the introduction of Film Composer in 1992 past the crest of the HD transition, say, 2007-2008 — DV notwithstanding, there was still a sense during that whole time that the future still offered the opportunity of growing your business. Moving up.

Nowadays, that’s not necessarily the case.

To put it another way, Bob’s point is NOT “Everything was better when I was younger.” I’ve known Bob for coming up on 20 years now, and I’ve never heard a nostalgic peep from him, ever.

His point is exactly the opposite. “I’ve had a great ride, but what the fjjk do I do with the next 15-20 years of my career? Does my business actually have another 15-20 years in the tank? It sure doesn’t look like it from here.”

Again, this is not a matter of being a dinosaur, being nostalgic, being unwilling to adapt.

The matter is: 20 years ago, it was very easy to imagine another 20 years of growth for anyone willing to adapt.

Now, it’s harder to imagine what it will take to keep adapting to 20 years of THIS. This is different.

Nothing I’ve read here suggests that he’s much off the mark.

Or am *I* off the mark? Wouldn’t be the first time. LOL

PS. Dad’s in town, so I’m having the opportunity to re-observe this. He’s 77, working harder than ever, and is hoping to maybe slow down by 80. Bob is quite right to be thinking about HIS job 20 years from now, because in his late 70s, he’s probably still going to need one.