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One Year Later, redux: Apple, FCPX and The Perfect Roll-out
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I could Steve Jobs saying that. I’m not so sure about Tim Cook. Could be that FCP is changing direction with Tim at the helm? Or could be he hasn’t even spoken to the FCP group in 6 months. And that was probably to tell them they’re getting matching 401k benefits and that he’s donating $1000 in each of their names to the human fund. Who knows?
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Tim might be right, but only time will really tell. What Apple has ultimately wrought for themselves and for the others in the NLE space will probably not be fully understood or quantifiable for several years to come.
I can’t help but think that a company with Apple’s resources could have had it all. One need only look at a company like Hundai to see what’s really possible when a company truly aspires to turn things around completely, and does the job properly, taking the best of the best from just about every other manufacturer on the planet, and then delivering its products to buyers at every level. There is no BMW or Mercedes or Porche owner I know who’s not seriously considering replacing their German car with one now made in Korea. Who’d have ever imagined that?
If Biscardi is right, and basic editing in Smoke 2013 takes only 10-mins. to learn, then Autodesk may well be the big winner in the professional market space when the dust settles. Ease of use for basic editing, but with much of the power of Flame lurking under the hood, shows what a big rebuild could and should look like. If Autodesk can port Smoke to Windows in the near term, it could be the real game-changer they’re touting now. And, if that happens, the debate here will no longer include dissenfranchised professional users, because we’ll all have moved on, and it won’t be to AVID or Adobe.
Then, should Autodesk become the next real powerhouse, the big question will be, will schools across the country want to teach X to aspring legions of future editors? And, will Apple’s pro feature set, added to what may become just a pure Youtube NLE, ultimately become the Classic Coke or Edsel as some have prognosticated?
Who really knows? Tim? Me? I maintain that only time will tell…
David Roth Weiss
ProMax Systems
Burbank
DRW@ProMax.comSales | Integration | Support
David is a Creative COW contributing editor and a forum host of the Apple Final Cut Pro forum.
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[David Roth Weiss] “I can’t help but think that a company with Apple’s resources could have had it all. “
As long as we assume that their actions reflections reflect their priorities, the rest is easy.
“Having it all” for Apple means, at the very least, BEING APPLE. What is most Apple-like about Apple? A meticulously crafted user experience.
What was FC Studio LEAST like? A meticulously crafted Apple UX.
So what do we see with X? Apple’s idea of what it means to be Apple for video. Features will show up or they won’t, because features aren’t the point.
This was Apple’s strategy with iPod and iPhone too, btw. Show up late and underfeatured, and just keep banging on the meticulously-crafted Apple UX until the features mostly show up. But never ALL the features found elsewhere. Never. Just the ones that can be reasonably subsumed into Apple’s UX goals.
That was never going to happen with any combination of stuff bought from other people, none of which looked like it was designed by Apple. Solution: start with Apple’s idea of something approaching ideally Apple, add features later.
Another way of looking at it. When Apple got in the game, these editing software conventions had been fixed for well over a decade, now, well over 20 yrs. Some conventions came from linear video editing — fixed for the better part of 30 years when Apple got in. Even more so, the roots of non-linear editing are in film — well over 100 years.
Frankly, I’m surprised Apple stuck with FCP Legacy as long as they did. Whatever else Apple is, they’re not a company whose design priorities are driven by 20, 40 or 100 year old approaches.
If they’re not Apple being Apple, they can never have it all. They could never be Apple in this market until they put a shovel in the head of the Borg-zombie that FCP had become. Take care of features later.
Again, I don’t think I’m making any great leaps of imagination or analysis here. I’m just looking at what they did, and assume that it reflects their priorities.
Dammit! I was supposed to let everybody else have the last word. NOW I’ll shut up for a while.
Tim Wilson
Associate Publisher, Editor-in-Chief
Creative COW Magazine
Twitter: timdoubleyou -
“I don’t care what they say about me as long as they spell my name right.” attributed variously to P.T. Barnum, Mark Twain, Oscar Wilde, and Big Tim Sullivan.
I prefer the american to the roman.
As for the perfection of Apple’s intent.
After the rollout the released the “roadmap” for the next year, clearly as a reaction to the blowback they were getting. They, very quietly, un-EOL’d FCP7 thru over the phone sales, also, one can surmise, because of the feedback they were getting. No matter how you look at the recent “seat” numbers, they are loosing percentage in market share. Anecdotally they seem to be loosing some of their presence in various film schools around the country. They are now backtracking on their design concepts by promising to include a 2nd viewer window in upcoming releases. They claimed that it was impossible to import old FCP7 projects into FCPX, now third party developers are doing it.
I don’t think a perfect rollout would require a near constant backtracking by the “roller.” I think Apple took their #1 position in the NLE market and threw it in the toilet for many of the reasons you laid out. I don’t know if that larger market they think exists, exists. I do know that I am switching not just software but also hardware to the PC platform. I don’t think I’m alone.
the other thing to consider is what would have happened if they created FCP8. 64 bit, anything on the timeline, metadata intensive – but with tracks, 2 viewers, multicam, broadcast out, XML, OMF, EDL. They could have changed the data structure but kept it operationally similar. It could have been as “Apple” as they liked, but still respected basic editing conventions. It was quite possible to do, look at a lot of their software – Pages, Keynote, Safari – they didn’t reinvent the wheel there.
OK given a FCP8 rollout at the same price as X, what would have happened? Less noise, of course, but I think it would have sold better, their market share would have increased, their future just as bright.
We’ll never know about the alternative, time will tell about their choices.
A perfect rollout – only in the bizzaro world.
Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
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nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf -
[David Roth Weiss] “Then, should Autodesk become the next real powerhouse, the big question will be, will schools across the country want to teach X to aspring legions of future editors? And, will Apple’s pro feature set, added to what may become just a pure Youtube NLE, ultimately become the Classic Coke or Edsel as some have prognosticated?”
Has everyone forgotten history so quickly? The original Final Cut Pro initially found its way into the market because it was one of the first NLE products to seriously embrace DV/FireWire — consumer video technologies that pros initially didn’t take seriously (one recalls extensive arguments over the definition of ‘broadcast quality’).
There is a long-term trend away from high-priced specialty products. Look at the long-term erosion of Avid’s market share — none of the fundamental factors that were responsible for that trend have changed. The idea that a high-end-only product will win the next round of the NLE wars runs contrary to all of this. It’s highly unlikely.
Over the next decade, I like FCP X’s prospects. FCP X is available for one-click App Store installation at a dramatically lower cost than competing applications. It’s easier for new editors to learn. It’s built around file-based acquisition and focuses heavily on Internet deliverable formats (causing you to pejoratively imply it might be a “YouTube NLE”). Its UI is based around Internet-age taxonomy — relationships and tagging. It’s designed for a world of speedy laptops that can connect to Thunderbolt storage fast enough to handle even uncompressed HD.
In a way its detractors are right — FCP X is from a different world than competing NLEs. But that world isn’t the consumer market. It’s the future. And it’s arriving fast.
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Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.
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It will surprise nobody that I agree with Chris’s assessment.
Not just what he said, but the reasons he put forth for every opinion he offered.
Well done sir.
“Before speaking out ask yourself whether your words are true, whether they are respectful and whether they are needed in our civil discussions.”-Justice O’Connor
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I am sure that adobe can catchup to smoke with just plugins (at first) And could run on windows heavy iron with more power than smoke on an highend imac with 20 daisy chains thunderbolt contraptions and a much better price.
Porting smoke to window would be awsome but as I was told not an easy job because its unix based.
But, lets see.
Richard C
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[Chris Kenny] “FCP X is available for one-click App Store installation at a dramatically lower cost than competing applications. It’s easier for new editors to learn. “
So is Imovie. I didn’t see it eating up market share. If “one-click” installation is such a big deal, other vendors will follow suit. Costs are going down across all NLE applications. If cost is really the major factor than Lightworks will be the market champ, it’s free. And don’t forget that PPro with an educational discount is under $500.
As for ease of use, we shall see.
[Chris Kenny] “It’s built around file-based acquisition and focuses heavily on Internet deliverable formats “
So is PPro. If “one click” Youtube is a big hit, every NLE on the market will adapt it, it’s not like it’s difficult technology.
[Chris Kenny] ” Its UI is based around Internet-age taxonomy — relationships and tagging.”
Since I don’t what this means, but it’s got big words like taxonomy in it, I’ll just have to agree with you here.
[Chris Kenny] “It’s designed for a world of speedy laptops that can connect to Thunderbolt storage fast enough to handle even uncompressed HD.”
In what way is it optimized for laptops more than any other NLE? Do you mean PPro on a MBpro can’t use a TBolt raid?
[Chris Kenny] ” FCP X is from a different world than competing NLEs. But that world isn’t the consumer market. It’s the future. And it’s arriving fast.”
Oh please, spare me.
Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
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nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf -
[Bill Davis] “It will surprise nobody that I agree with Chris’s assessment.”
Nope, no surprises there. But the brevity was admirable.
Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
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nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf -
[Herb Sevush] “No matter how you look at the recent “seat” numbers, they are loosing percentage in market share.”
Margin-of-error losses in a survey that probably ignores most the target demographic (see below).
[Herb Sevush] “I don’t think a perfect rollout would require a near constant backtracking by the “roller.” I think Apple took their #1 position in the NLE market and threw it in the toilet for many of the reasons you laid out. I don’t know if that larger market they think exists, exists.”
It has existed for years. It’s the market that bought most of the copies of classic FCP as well. How many people do you think are employed by post facilities or broadcasters in the US? FCP X had more than 2M licensed users. I doubt more than 5% of them were doing film/broadcast work — and this is before we even discuss all the freelancers who probably pirated classic FCP, many of whom might buy legal copies of FCP X now that App Store distribution has made it cheaper and easier.
[Herb Sevush] “the other thing to consider is what would have happened if they created FCP8. 64 bit, anything on the timeline, metadata intensive – but with tracks, 2 viewers, multicam, broadcast out, XML, OMF, EDL. They could have changed the data structure but kept it operationally similar. It could have been as “Apple” as they liked, but still respected basic editing conventions.”
It’s not “Apple” to not question basic user interface assumptions. Which is why I predicted they’d do precisely this with FCP X over a year before it shipped.
An “FCP 8” certainly would have been better received in these forums, but whether it would have had the same long-term potential is unclear. FCP X’s long-term potential will be determined primarily by its appeal to new users. I suspect Apple believes its new interface will have more appeal than a traditional NLE UI, and Apple has a pretty good record with these things.
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Digital Workflow/Colorist, Nice Dissolve.You should follow me on Twitter here. Or read our blog.
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