lively discussion at John Nack’s blog.

[Herb Sevush]

[Jeremy Garchow] “I’m sure of the software offered obvious advantages (like a multi-cam that exceeded your expectations) it would be worth the cost and frayed nerves.”

If Adobe had a multi-cam that even remotely came close to my expectations, forget exceeding them, it might be worth the frayed nerves. I might opt for the Cloud frayed nerves and all but i would like to lobby Adobe for a perpetual option – is that so hard to comprehend?

No one is asking that Adobe not have a cloud option, merely that they also retain a perpetual option, but you seem to think that is an extremist position and for the life of me I don’t see why.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
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nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf

[Jeremy Garchow]

[Herb Sevush] “No one is asking that Adobe not have a cloud option, merely that they also retain a perpetual option, but you seem to think that is an extremist position and for the life of me I don’t see why.”

Sorry, I don’t mean to be an extremist.

Really, this whole thing started with an extremist reaction of “Danger!”.

I do respect the concern of the want for a perpetual license. I do respect the conversation about it, it needs to happen.

I don’t think Adobe is aiming for the likes of Comcast, but what do I know?

I am sort of glad that a company is actually standing behind a bit of value in their products in this business.

[Herb Sevush]

[Jeremy Garchow] “I am sort of glad that a company is actually standing behind a bit of value in their products in this business.”

I don’t understand what you mean by this.

Herb Sevush
Zebra Productions
—————————
nothin’ attached to nothin’
“Deciding the spine is the process of editing” F. Bieberkopf

[Walter Soyka]

[David Lawrence] “Still waiting for examples of customer lock-in leading to more innovation and lower prices. ;)”

I think there is only one thing that leads to more innovation and lower prices: competition.

I think that the NLE market is actually pretty competitive. Off the top of my head, your options include the four A’s (Premiere Pro, FCPX, Media Composer, Smoke), some other lower-cost systems (Lightworks, Edius, Vegas) and some higher-end solutions (DS, Flame, Mistika).

So what is lock-in? Wikipedia says that lock-in “makes a customer dependent on a vendor for products and services, unable to use another vendor without substantial switching costs.”

Let’s set aside for a moment the fact that a cadre of Apple users are suddenly concerned about lock-in (!) and explore what lock-in means practically in the context of Premiere.

Is the switching cost from Premiere any higher than from any other NLE? How does subscription have any bearing on switching cost? Are we seeing lock-in (you can’t leave!) or opt-in (it’s so cheap and easy to stay)?

I understand the ideology — really — but this is a practical question, too. Is being “forced” to get a month’s subscription (assuming I’ve already used up my 30-day demo) to open .prproj file file any better or worse than being “forced” to keep a Mac frozen in time in the corner to open a .fcp? Eventually, we will find ourselves in a scenario where FCP7 will not practically run on a new machine, and the current software of the day will not run on an old machine. Did Apple just “force” us to buy a new Mac while simultaneously “forcing” us to keep our old one around instead of selling, donating, or recycling it? If I am obligated to keep my old hardware and eschew upgrades in order to run its old software, speaking practically, how much freer am I?

I maintain that the best practice is to output some kind of EDL/XML when you output a sequence, no matter what NLE you are on. This is the best way to make sure you can open that sequence on another NLE if you have to without maintaining subscription or old systems for dead software.

With every conversation about lock-in, I mention the industry-standard EDL, AAF, and XML that Premiere can output. I should add the reliance on open standards like MPEG-4 and DNxHD instead of closed ones like QuickTime and ProRes. I should also note that Adobe is actually pretty open — more so than I think many people realize: here’s the .PSD file spec [link]. Here’s the .AI 88 format [link] (still widely used for vector exchange). Here’s the Adobe PDF reference [link]. Here’s the Adobe XMP open standard for metadata [link]. Oh, and here’s the CinemaDNG Technology Center [link], which Adobe “co-opetitor” Blackmagic Design is exploiting for their products.

When I remark about XML, Aindreas very reasonably counters “But what about my Warp Stabilizer data?” Is Warp Stabilizer lock-in, because it doesn’t translate in XML?

Fair question. Imagine a world where every NLE had all the same features as every other NLE, and where they were all perfectly translatable. Sounds great, right? But… does this sound like a scenario where’s there’s a lot of innovation going on? Something like Warp Stabilizer couldn’t exist in this scenario until every developer implemented a compatible implementation and interchange standard.

Lock-in is a natural byproduct of innovation. If you want to take advantage of the innovation, you will have to accept some kind of lock-in by definition. The feature you want to use is only available from one vendor.

I don’t think that what Adobe is doing today is morally equivalent to what, say, Microsoft did in the 1980s and 1990s. This is not “DOS isn’t done til Lotus won’t run.” Adobe is not competing unfairly from a position of dominance, and they are not making it unduly difficult for you to switch to another product. They are actually providing a new option in the marketplace: a way to get $2600 worth of software for a modest subscription fee and no upfront investment.

But what about the “It’s a trap!” argument? The Admiral Ackbars among us are concerned that once we’re all signed up, Adobe will jack the price through the roof.

Well, that’s possible — but I don’t see it happening. The market won’t let it. If Adobe raises the price too high, people will leave, pure and simple. This is not a monopoly and people have other options. Some of us are already even using them, side by side with Adobe products!

Also, if Adobe is able to profitably raise the cost of Creative Cloud to a point where I can’t profitably use it — I am running my business wrong.

Admiral Ackbar persists: “Ok, so they keep the price down. What if they stop innovating? It’s a trap!”

I rejoin: they can’t stop innovating. The rest of the market is moving too fast. If Adobe doesn’t keep up with new formats and new capabilities, people will leave for other software that does. Companies like Apple, Autodesk, Avid, BMD, and The Foundry would line up for ex-Adobe customers. It happened to CMX. It happened to Avid. It might be happening to Apple right now. There’s no reason it wouldn’t happen with Adobe unless they continually deliver good value. Subscription (read: even cash flow) might even help them better forecast revenue and fund R&D.

Again, I do understand the ideology of owning/controlling your own software. I’d be more comfortable myself with a perpetual license, even if its security is largely illusory.

However, I will make the practical decision for my business, and that might be subscription. I don’t see how a subscription vs perpetual license raises switching-away costs. Since the future for any product is uncertain, I’m going to pick the one I think is best in the short and medium terms. I’ve switched before and I’m ready to switch again when I have to.

Walter Soyka
Principal & Designer at Keen Live
Motion Graphics, Widescreen Events, Presentation Design, and Consulting
RenderBreak Blog – What I’m thinking when my workstation’s thinking
Creative Cow Forum Host: Live & Stage Events

[Jeremy Garchow]

[Herb Sevush] “I don’t understand what you mean by this.”

Apologies.

I am saying, they aren’t giving it away for free.

Adobe thinks that their products are wroth something, I think that’s a good thing to show the young people coming up in this industry, and your clients.

Jeremy

[Jeremy Garchow]

[David Lawrence] “No links, I was talking in general. Aindreas mentioned telcos, and cable companies. I’d add ISPs and health insurance companies. Captured markets tend to have bad service and higher prices. Here’s just one example:”

OK.

I guess I just don’t see my choice in NLE as comparable to choosing health care, or a cell phone carrier contract, or subscribing to cable.

Perhaps this is the root of how we see things differently.

I’m not saying an NLE transition is necessarily easy, it’s not, but 10 years from now, I’d gladly pay $59.99 for a month if I needed to access an old FCP7 project and I wasn’t using FCP7 any more.