[Mike Chedwick] All successful companies founded and run by visionaries tend to decline when the one with the “Golden Touch” dies.
Mike, As you obviously know, history has proven time and again that you are absolutely right about that part.
[Mike Chedwick] “[Apple] is ripe for ruination.”
However, I respectfully disagree with that part … I just don’t think FCP’s possible exit from the pro market indicates that Apple is either on or approaching the downside of its growth curve as a company. In fact, although I don’t have Apple’s balance sheet in front of me as some other posters seem to, I would be extremely surprised if FCP sales in the last few years represent any more than a tiny fraction of the company’s overall revenue. It seems far more likely that iPods, iPhones, iPads, etc. represent the bulk of the company’s value and I don’t think we’ll see the end any time soon for iDevices and the kinds of massive market share they garner.
If Apple sold 2 million copies of FCP, a professional editing program, how could they come to the conclusion that an upgraded version of FCP, with all the professional features, would sell only a few thousand? They wouldn’t, and they wouldn’t turn their back on the professional user base that, in part, made it a success. FCP was considered a toy by many when it first came out, in part because the average Joe could now plug in his DV Cam via firewire and start editing. Your contention that professional software is a small market completely ignores FCPs history and it’s ability to span several markets successfully. So no, I wasn’t trying to point out that you had FCP’s price wrong, I was trying to point out that your view of the market is wrong and FCPs history proves it.
BTW, many on these forums contend that Apple’s embracing of the amateur DSLR users, with their Mac Book Pros and copies of FCP X, proves that FCP X is a consumer product. Sound familiar? History repeats itself.
I was wondering if Apple had recently hired Medhi Ali and Irving Gould from the old Commodore to run the ProApps devision. They did a amazing job of running Commodore into the ground, why not the ProApps?
Of course Irving Gould is dead, but I’m thinking his spirit lives on.
Apple certainly does not care about the professional market. They’ve bought and EOL’ed so many pro apps it’s laughable. I’d actually laugh, but those EOLs directly effect me and my business. Shake, Color, Cinema Tools, DVD Studio Pro, Soundtrack Pro, Final Cut Server, and a little app called Final Cut Pro versions 1 through 7 to name a few. At this point, I’m more worried about MacPros hitting the chopping block, because the pro apps are definitely at the end of the line.
Again, Apple doesn’t care about the pro market, nor will their loss of owning it kill their profit margin, and definitely will not spell out their demise. They have enough iProducts in the world to keep them running for a very long time.
My unused roll of Ampex 456 is gonna look real pretty when I unfurl it in the wind and videotape it….but no, I will not let it blow away into the environment. Hey, let’s not forget Cibachromes – hottest gloss out there. Well, the new metallic inkjets are pretty cool, though.