I’m not sure the world is leaving behind optical media as quickly as Apple would like use to believe.
Do consider: Apple makes a great deal of money selling folks on the idea of video downloads being the future. They’re selling, sure, but just like the iPod AAC downloads of last decade, they’re selling an inferior product for the same price. Apple’s “HD” is 720/24p or
540/30p, encoded in AVC/H.264 at up to 5Mb/s… and it can’t really change, since they have a few generations of iPods, iPhones, iPads, and Apple TVs to support. This is substantially lower resolution than broadcast HDTV (ATSC or DVB), much less Blu-ray.
I think online video has a stronger niche in rentals. And that’s the real thing that’s eating into hard media sales. Think about it… when Blockbuster charged $5.00 for a rental, and I could probably buy the DVD on release-week sale for under $15.00, it was pretty easy to figure that, if I wanted to see that film more than once, I’d just buy the disc. With flat-rate on-demand services at under $8.00 a month, or physical rentals via RedBox now $1.00, the effective cost of temporary video has all but vanished. In fact, these services are having as much impact on cable/satellite TV subscriptions as they are on physical media.
Anyone who was around in the 80s and 90s probably remembers the various computer industry disc formats that arose, lived a short life, and then either died or lived on in some niche. CD pretty much replaced most such efforts, DVD and BD ground these into the ground. Not that there won’t be computer-only formats, but that such formats (like DVD-RAM or BD-XL) are more likely to be based on consumer formats.
I think the M-disc is inherently shooting for a niche: archival. And, just as these others, they’re leveraging the existing consumer format, rather than striking out on their own. Which is smart. If they really hit that $3.00/disc price… well, that’s “only” 10x more expensive than BD-R for backup. But for archival… if it’s that reliable, I’d absolutely use it for “gold masters” of every DVD5 I make. I’d still keep ’em all on the RAID, but that’s a level of security you’ll never get with standard DVD-Rs.
As for web-based storage.. it’s for a different purpose, right now anyway. Most people don’t have Dropbox or other “cloud” storage accounts that’ll hold more than a single DVD5, much less a BD25’s worth of data. The point of that is to have a few things available that you can access anywhere. The speed of the network is probably going to be a limiting factor on this kind of storage, no matter how many free GB these services are about to offer you.
-Dave